The Pros And Cons Of Trey Burton (fantasy football)

Dwayne Allen. Jermaine Gresham. Dion Sims. All drafted outside the Top 200 a year ago were all valued higher than this week’s player. What a difference a year can make!

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% really happy with my backpack still! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks Pros and Cons on Lamar Miller – it seems to have struck a chord with the audience and I’m hoping this weeks encore is no different. Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you leading up to your traditional NFL Fantasy Draft Season will be based on the Pros and Cons of players the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

So a family member of mine works as a Financial Analyst. He essentially gets sent to different places for a range of different companies and assesses how they have gone wrong in distributing their spending. So he and the group he works with figure out what the company in question has outlaid and if it was a good idea to do so (generally it’s not otherwise he wouldn’t be there, right?), how they can help cut costs and if its sustainable enough to move forward as a company or pull the plug and claim bankruptcy.

One example of crazy spending still does my head in; there was one story about a ‘new but booming’ tech company in the South. For some reason over a period of time, they leased up to 50 BMW’s for the company that employees can use but have to return each day. The problem was a few things:

• There were only 250 people working for them. Most already had their own transport. So you’re assuming (or praying) that roughly 1 in 5 would take advantage of this ‘benefit’. 
• Uber and public transport exist. Oh and that other antiquated system…..whats it called again? Oh right! Walking! People in major cities walk to work still.
• They seemed to be turning over staff too frequently. It seemed good to offer a work car that they had to return daily but then what? Drive their own car home? 

So he tells me this story about how every day he would drive a different car around the town he was in because there was a parking garage of next-to-new cars just sitting there waiting to be used. But those same premium cars are just sitting there running up costs roughly around $600 a month each or more? That’s at a minimum $30k per month on a premium vehicle that only a few will use. But they didn’t care too much, it was their business and that’s how they wanted to run it. They could have gone the cheaper route, like a Nissan Pathfinder (don’t ask why I know this) for about $240 a month at a collective total of $12k a month. That in itself is a 60% cheaper outlay for the same proposed services. It’s not as sexy or smooth a ride, but it can be serviceable and do the job. Also if you crash a Pathfinder, who cares? Crash a BMW though? With insurance and warranty (or not) it feels absolutely horrible and gut-wrenching and you don’t want to leave the house or be seen again.

Lets hypothetically say that your Tier 1 Tight End (Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz, and Travis Kelce) is a BMW…

You pay your premium for something so finely tuned, so mechanically sound that when you drive it there is nothing better out there. You have something that not many else have but at that moment you know during your draft only 2 others can match. They’re the ‘limited editions’ every year. Now imagine crashing a BMW a week after you bought it or even worse, imagine losing a late 2nd Round pick on Rob Gronkowski or a 3rd Round pick on Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz. For any of them to go down and miss a chunk of time, if not a whole season? It would be the Fantasy Football equivalent of a write-off. (And before you all get worked up, NO I don’t want anyone to get hurt nor do I want them to miss any time – it’s just an example, calm down). And imagine missing out on a Mike Evans (who is currently going in the late second to early third rounds for a guy at a position which isn’t seeing multiple superstars, yet is seeing a resurgence of sorts in the later Rounds.

Tier 3 and 4 Tight Ends (Jack Doyle, Kyle Rudolph, and Cameron Brate) were your 2017 Nissan Pathfinders.

I mean if you have to buy one then you do, we’ve all been there –  but your not bragging about it. It’s much like waiting on a Tight End: if your early capital went elsewhere you likely had good weeks and off weeks but were happy with the guys you took beforehand in the earlier rounds as a result. The players I mentioned above all went in the 8th Round or later e.g Rudolph in the 8th Round, Doyle in the 11th Round or Brate in the 13th Round in Standard Scoring – take your pick. Yet they all finished in the Top 10 in Standard Scoring also, with Rudolph finishing as high as 6th, Brate 8th and Doyle 9th overall respectively. This year we see the same culprits popping up, but there is one new name to add to the list.

So Starships and Sidewinders I present to you…..

The Pros and Cons of…..Trey Burton

Do you know:

• Burton has thrown more career Super Bowl TDs than Carson Wentz has. Sorry, had to do it.
• Burton headed from a team with a second year QB that won a Super Bowl. Moved into his new team Chicago where he again has a second year QB leading them. Ironically, their new Head Coach Matt Nagy has also come from a team whose new QB Patrick Mahomes is also a second year QB. Second-year QB’s are the trend of the day it seems!
• In 2017 all of his 5 TDs came in the first half of a game.
• 21.73% of Trey Burton‘s Receptions accounted for TDs. Which is also 1 TD every 4.6 Receptions. At this rate, 46 Receptions would be 10 TDs. How’s that for Public School Math!

Hi! My name is….

Trey Burton. This was a name that no-one thought about last season except for when Zach Ertz (a BMW now but he himself was on average an 8th Round pick in 2017) was ineligible due to injury. But the past is the last and the ’Philly Special’ headed into folklore with one of the greatest Super Bowl plays of all time and free agency couldn’t have come at a better time for Trey Burton. A new team. A new QB. A new Head Coach with a playbook he is familiar with stemming from the ‘Andy Reid Coaching Tree’. And a with a brand new contract in hand, he cashed in faster than he could say ‘have you got a pen.’ We already hear the preseason hype about picking up the plays and having a great rapport with a 2nd year QB or how he has fitted in so well they see him as a leader. All of this information can be a sweet symphony of music to the ears of those looking for a bargain. But, as the weeks roll on and his ADP climbing rapidly, people have become more assertive of their assessment on Burton and I’ll be honest that music we previously heard about him is starting to sound more and more like a Cannibal Corpse ‘concert’. The fact that he was also with the Eagles for 4 years and couldn’t really beat out Veteran Brent Celek (who people forget about also) causes hesitation about why he wasn’t utilized more.

Divided we fall….

Currently, Trey Burton is going in the late 7th Round (7.12 / 86th overall in Standard Scoring, 8.02 / 86th overall in PPR) and is sitting at the TE9 position – much like Zach Ertz last year was. And in 2017 we saw some glimpses of dominance but between those moments not a lot was shown. Burton did turn up when called upon which is great but all that does is leave people wanting more or still confused about who he is. What we did we see out of Burton in a short amount of time was efficiency. We saw efficiency at it’s best, and we saw a player wanting to break out with that as his calling card. To do so a change of scenery was needed and we all assume that’s why he bounced.

Targets Available – 

Kendall Wright – 91 Targets

Cameron Meredith – 97 Targets (2016 statistic, missed 2017 with an ACL tear)

Dontrelle Inman – 44 Targets

232 Targets Available

With all this said, on with…

The Pros – 

Previous Competition for Targets: 

We need to wipe the slate clean for Burton. Where star Tight End Zach Ertz was, Burton wasn’t and right now he is the top TE on the Bears Depth Chart. That and Alshon Jeffery not in the way anymore says that maybe Burton who showed efficiency when called upon (10.78 Yards Per Reception at a 74.2% Catch Rate) could be The Bears’ diamond in the rough. We can expect the time on the turf to increase which gives us a reason to believe his Targets will come up. Right now Burton looks to be the second top Receiver on the Bear squad behind Allen Robinson, and that is not a bad thing to be right now.

How can Burton improve / how will he be used: 

Many comparisons for Mitch Trubisky going into 2018 have come in the form of Jared Goff in 2017. I expect Nagy to simplify the playbook, shorten the passes and have his brand new toys make big plays for him. That’s the job Free Agents like Burton, Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel alongside Rookie Anthony Miller were brought in to do for the Bears. Burton is more likely to stay close to the line of scrimmage and hit the intermediate routes, which will work fine for Trubisky, who does his most consistent work throwing down the middle of the field. So if short to intermediate passes are more likely called, Burton could be the safest play. Now it’s nice to say things hoping that they are true, but Burton had the second highest passer rating during the regular season amongst Tight Ends when targetted on intermediate passes (148.1 rating) with a 76.9% catch rate on those routes. The average rating amongst the same position on the same routes was 96.7. This is where Burton excelled, and where Nagy and Trubisky will hope to exploit him.

The ‘Travis Kelce Role’ comparisons: 

This is of itself is a massive compliment to think that you are going to make an impact such as Kelce, who finished as the TE2 in 2017. Kelce grabbed 122 Targets and over 83 Receptions with more 1000 Yards and 8 TDs. That is a huge name to brand Burton with but if this is their vision for him then we all understand the hype. 

The Cons – 

In a high powered offense he didn’t really do much:

Burton played 2 games without Zach Ertz in the lineup which saw a 7 for 4 and 6 for 5 Target to Reception outcome – and that’s great! The best performance with Ertz in the team, however, was a 4-2 with 1 TD – and that’s ok too. Outside of that, there wasn’t much use. Everyone stepped up for Philadelphia; Nelson Agholar finally showed what he can do, Torrey Smith had moments and so did Darren Sproles and Corey Clement in the backfield. The Eagles had a lot of role players in their squad and we saw a glimpse of what Burton could be with or without competition for targets and time on the field, however…

Current Competition for Targets / Free Agent acquisitions:

Allen Robinson” width=”300″ height=”225″ />Just like the Eagles, The Bears added next to a new roster on Offense. Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, drafted (and traded up to get) Anthony Miller. With a capable ground game in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. The Bears have depth for each position too; Dion Sims, Adam Shaheen, Kevin White and Josh Bellamy all still on the roster. The Bears have as many good, effective players as any right now as they ever have. That’s also peak hour traffic on a Friday bottlenecking into the Queens Tunnel. That upside could be deterred by spreading the Targets around. 

No really, Travis Kelce comparisons can slow down:

This early narrative and praise are driving his price higher and higher. So with ADP alone, with everything we don’t know about Burton in 2018 says to me that this is a huge price to pay for someone who is still somewhat of an unknown. We can guess he is the next Travis Kelce. He could also be the next Coby Fleener. We are also assuming that Matt Nagy can get a second year QB to produce like the 12-year veteran he previously coached. What if Trubisky is a bust? That could absolutely damage everyone in that team in 2018. 

2018 Prediction

Targets: 96.5 / Receptions: 64.5 / YPR: 11.21 / Yards: 723.04 / YPG: 45.19 / TDs: 9 / Catch Rate %: 66.9 (YPR = yards per reception, YPG = yards per game)

Final Finish: Tight End 7

Here are my final thoughts on Trey Burton:

The Bears have all the ingredients for a season to surprise many. Their entire Offense feels young and promising so they feel like they could be on the verge of doing something special. Yet there is so much unknown about what they could do as a collective that it does make you think twice. We don’t know how Allen Robinson’s health will be or how Tarik Cohen will get used, or what Trey Burton can do with Adam Shaheen (who The Bears in 2017 gave up an early 2nd round Pick for) breathing down his neck. The NFC North sees Aaron Rodgers return to lead Green Bay. The Lions seem to have upgraded Their O-Line and run game while Matthew Stafford remains as consistent as ever. The Vikings have just gained Kirk Cousins who’s out to prove his price tag is justified. That Division alone will be tough enough.

What I will say is that I believe Trey Burton is going to surprise many, but that may not be enough as he screams high risk, high reward. in his best season to have shown a little is one thing but can he take the reigns and dominate for a whole season is another. I could look to grab Trey Burton early in the 7th Round but I won’t lie; there are other positional needs around that part of a draft that I think are better options over an unknown quantity. Sony Michel, Chris Carson, Emmanuel Sanders and Isaiah Crowell are all going in and around where Burton is seated and right now and for that He is a little too rich for my blood. As I mentioned before, Jack Doyle last year went in the 11th Round – WITHOUT ANDREW LUCK – still finished in the Top 10 at his position and currently this year has an ADP in the 12th Round – WITH ANDREW LUCK RETURNING – which that is more my cup of tea.

The end result for me is that of all the Tight Ends coming up this year (yes, there is a resurgence) he is more likely better set up than most to move ahead of the pack if things break his way. Trey Burton won’t be a BMW or a 2018 Nissan Pathfinder. For me, he will be more of a Jeep Wrangler… 

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!

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