The Ultimate Guide to March Madness Tournament Trends

Before we get started I want to issue you a challenge, a Bracket Challenge. If you think you have better picks than some of the ones I give away, I’d love for you to join a Bracket Challenge with me. It is just going to be a free thing so there is no harm if you aren’t too familiar with filling out a bracket. But doing one of these is always a good way to get into the game a little more and have some interaction. In this group, I will encourage people to put their serious bracket in there but if you also want to throw a funny one in that is cool. Note: You must have at least created a bracket to join a group, you don’t need to submit it until the games start on Thursday at noon eastern. 

There are a few ways to do this. If you want to do it in a browser just sign in to your ESPN account and go to this link. Then scroll to the bottom and search ‘KyleTheCommish’ and there should be only one option. 

If you are doing it inside the ESPN Tournament Challenge app (it’s a very good app, highly recommend for filling out the bracket vs browser) there should be a Create/Join Group button on the bracket you want to enter into the group. Click that and there is a search button at the top right. Same thing search ‘KyleTheCommish’. 

If all of this is too confusing there is a way to invite you through email and also a way to invite you through a link. I’ll send those out to anyone that requests one. 

Good luck! If you have any questions, don’t be afraid to ask.

I made one giant 10k word guide of awesomeness for this March Madness Bracket season. This is one of the 5 sections of that mega-article. If you would like to read the beast of an article with all 5 sections, you can click right here. If you would like to view one of the other 4 sections, click on their names: Introducing the 2022 Bracket, Tournament Facts/History, Finding My Upset(s), Finding My Champion. Either way, thank you for reading this article and I hope you learn something.

---

Tournament Trends

As I mentioned, none of the stats in the Tournament Facts were predictive. But here are some trends that I have picked up in some of my research over the last few weeks. First, here are some trends I found that were interesting specifically from last year’s tournament.

First Round Winners

• In 2021, every single team in the top 20 of KenPoms efficiency margin won their first round game except for Ohio St (Oral Roberts upset), Virginia (Ohio upset), and BYU (who was lower than UCLA in their first round matchup).
• If you blindly chose teams last year based on who scored more points per game during their season, you would have gotten 22 of 31 games correctly (one game was cancelled).

Sweet>Salty

• The Sweet 16 teams in 2021 were Gonzaga, Creighton, USC, Oregon, Michigan, FSU, UCLA, Alabama, Baylor, Villanova, Oral Roberts, Arkansas, Oregon St, Loyola-Chicago, Syracuse, and Houston.
• Only four of the above teams (Oral Roberts, Syracuse, Oregon St, and Creighton) were not in the top 20 of KenPoms adjusted Efficiency margin. Oregon St was the only one of those four teams to advance to the Elite 8.
• If you blindly chose teams last year in the 2nd round that had a better effective FG%, you would have gotten 11 of 16 games correctly. In the “How to get a Perfect Sweet 16” article just a little bit below this, you will see that this is a pretty good metric for these second round games specifically.
• In the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games in 2021, 8 of the 12 winners had more rebounds per game than their opponent.

It’s the Final Countdown

• The Final Four teams in 2021 were UCLA, Gonzaga, Baylor, and Houston.
• Each of the Final Four teams had an Assist/Turnover Ratio that was above a 1.2. This was in the top 50 of the nation last year (out of over 360 teams).
• Each of the past 6 Champions have finished the season inside the top 20 in Assist/Turnover margin.
• Each of the Final Four teams averaged over 73 points per game in 2021. That isn’t always an easy number to get to especially in March, but knowing that these teams can create points is essential to moving on.
• Each of the Final Four teams were above a 115 offensive efficiency in KenPom. This rating means they would have been in the top 16 in offensive efficiency this year.
• At the same time, none of these Final Four teams were poor on the defensive end. The lowest any of the teams were ranked was 94.5.
• Over the last 8 tournaments, 27 out of 32 (84%) Final Four teams had a steal on 9% of defensive possessions. In that same timespan, the Champions have averaged a steal on 10.9%.

How to get a Perfect Sweet 16 (2020 article)

• In 2019, round 1 matchups were 20-12 for the team that had a better season FT%. In round 2 they were 13-3.
• In 2018, round 2 matchups were 12-4 for the team with a better eFG %.

Assists + Top 10 Ranking = Final Four? (2020 article)

• Over the last 10 tournaments, a Final Four team averages an assist on 21.1% of their possessions.
• The last 5 champions averaged an assist on 23% of their possessions.
• Over the past decade, 75% of Final Four teams were a top-15 team in the first AP poll of the new year. 3 of the 4 Final Four teams in 2021 were inside the top 15 (UCLA the exception).
• The past 11 non-UConn champions ranked inside the AP’s top 15 in both the preseason poll and the first poll of the new year.
• 2022 Teams with an assist on 21.1% of their possessions: Arizona, Colgate, Houston, Purdue, Duke, Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas, Vermont, Kentucky, michigan St, Tennessee, Iowa, Virginia Tech, Rutgers, Memphis, Illinois, Loyola-Chicago, Marquette, Iowa St, Indiana
• 2022 Preseason Top 15: Gonzaga, UCLA, Kansas, Villanova, Texas, Michigan, Purdue, Baylor, Duke, Kentucky, Illinois, Memphis, Oregon, Alabama, Houston
• Top 15 First Poll of 2022: Baylor, Duke, Purdue, Gonzaga, UCLA, Kansas, USC, Arizona, Auburn, Michigan St, Iowa St, Houston, Ohio St, Texas, Alabama
• ***Teams that overlap AKA Final Four Possible Teams with their assist numbers: Gonzaga (24.2%), Baylor (22.5%), Kansas (21.5%), Purdue (24.3%), Duke (24.1%), Houston (24.5%)

Narrowing down your Final Four to the Final One (2019 article)

Embed from Getty Images

• No winner allowed opponents to average more than 20 FTA per game. That rules out Auburn, LSU, and Alabama as possible Champions.
• Nine of the past 10 champions had a player average at least 18 PPG or had a team assist-to-turnover ratio of at least 1.399.
• 11 of 14 Final Four teams with an Effective FG% of at least 56 percent made it to the title game (eight winners).
• Three of the past four champions had the highest remaining eFG% among Final Four teams.
• Nine of 15 Final Four teams with an eFG% of 50 percent or lower did not make the title game.
• Of the 80 Final Four teams the past 20 seasons, 67 held a top-10 rating in the polls at one point during the season.
• 81.3 percent of Final Four teams had a victory of at least 35 points on their résumé heading into the tourney (95 percent of champions).
• Top 10 ranked teams in 2021-22: Baylor, Gonzaga, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, Villanova, Texas, UCLA, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama, Arizona, USC, Iowa St, Michigan St, Auburn, Houston, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Providence, Tennessee
• Of the above teams, how many had a 35 point win? Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa St, Gonzaga, UCLA, Arizona, USC, Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan St, Houston, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Duke, Villanova
• Those that also have a 1.155 Assist/Turnover ratio? USC, Villanova, Michigan St, Michigan, Kansas, Illinois, Baylor, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Kentucky, Duke, Gonzaga, UCLA, Arizona, Houston, Purdue
• Those that also have an eFG% over 50%? USC, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan St, Kansas, Illinois, Baylor, Tennessee, Kentucky, Duke, Gonzaga, UCLA, Arizona, Houston, Purdue
• ***Those that also have a player averaging 18 points OR 1.399 Ass/Turn? Michigan, Illinois, Kansas OR Kentucky, Purdue*, Houston, Arizona, UCLA, Gonzaga*, Duke

*= teams with eFG% > 56%

---

Who is your Cinderella? Who do you think will cut down the nets? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter. 

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.