Then and Now: The NFL Draft’s Round One Reunions
There was a new theme in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft: Reunions. Teams reunited an unprecedented four pairs of college teammates in the first round alone. Can the chemistry carry over? Will they create some fantasy magic together? Let’s take a look at what the 2021 season may have in-store for the college-to-pro teammates.
JOE BURROW & JA’MARR CHASE
We have to start with the biggest reunion of them all. Ja’Marr Chase is back with his quarterback, Joe Burrow. Since Chase sat out in 2020, Burrow was Chase’s only college quarterback. The two spent two seasons together at LSU, and their last one ended in a national championship. Now, they’re together again with the Cincinnati Bengals.
College
There’s no question the 2019 season for Burrow and Chase was electric. Burrow led the SEC in just about every passing category while Chase finished at the top of the conference in several receiving categories:
- Yards (1780)
- Yards Per Reception (21.2)
- Touchdowns (20!!)
Chase is an elite talent, and he put his skills on full display in 2019. It’s likely Burrow and Chase will keep the chemistry alive.
Pro-Environment
Chase immediately becomes the Bengals WR1. The team is highly invested in his success by selecting him 5th overall. He also fits in nicely with the receiving corps that’s already in place. Tee Higgins will go opposite of Chase on the outside, and Tyler Boyd still controls his spot in the slot. Again, Chase led the SEC in yds/rec in 2019, so he’s the deep threat the Bengals were missing last season.
Opportunity
There’s plenty of opportunities to go around with this offense. As a rookie, Joey B threw 35+ passes eight times in 10 games. To compare, Tua Tagovailoa only did that three times. Despite his shortened season, Burrow managed to finish 3rd in the league with 40.4 pass attempts per game. Cincinnati also finished the year 11th in team pass plays per game. The Bengals’ defense will likely play a factor too. Cincinnati had a point differential of -113 in 2020, and unless they can make a significant shift in 2021, the Bengals will be playing from behind often.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
The hope here is Bengals’ head coach, Zac Taylor, studied the 2019 LSU RPO offense and is ready to implement some of those aspects. Cincinnati has the pieces in place to replicant one of the best college offenses we’ve ever seen.
As for Chase, he has plenty of fantasy upside. Not only is the opportunity there, but he fits into the offense well. His chemistry with Burrow is unprecedented.
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Speaking of Burrow, he has to improve his deep-ball accuracy for Chase to thrive. Burrow started his career only completing one pass of 21+ yards in his first 19 attempts. By the end of 2020, Burrow ranked 31st with a 32.43% accuracy percentage on throws of 21+ yards, according to brickwallblitz.com. Need I remind you of Chase’s SEC-leading yards/reception in 2019? It’s 21.2.
I don’t totally blame Burrow here for his struggles throwing deep. First, he was a rookie. Second, his offensive line was trash. To throw deep, you need time. Burrow thrived in a clean pocket, ranking 11th with a 75.9% completion percentage. When under pressure, Burrow’s accuracy tanked to 25% (36th). Let’s hope that line holds in 2021.
TUA TAGOVAILOA & JAYLEN WADDLE
The Dolphins needed a spark plug on offense, and they got it. Miami passed on DeVonta Smith to select Tua’s other Alabama receiver, Jaylen Waddle. While Waddle did say he prefers Mac Jones over Tua as a quarterback, I think Tua and Waddle are still friends.
College
The QB-WR duo spent two seasons together at Alabama (2018, 2019). They didn’t win a national title, but they did enjoy a lot of success. Tua had a terrific season in 2018, throwing to Waddle, Jerry Jeudy, and Henry Ruggs. Tua led the SEC in several passing categories, and Waddle finished in the Top 10 in receiving yards, yards per reception, and touchdowns. But in 2019, Waddles’ receptions and receiving yards dropped. He fell out of the SEC’s Top 15 in most categories but was still able to finish 5th with 17 yds/rec and hauled in 6 touchdowns. It was a crowded scene once Smith emerged as a junior.
Pro-Environment
Waddle went from a crowded WR room at Alabama to another in Miami. The Dolphins already had DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and an emerging Lynn Bowden Jr. Miami then signed Will Fuller in free agency. Still, there is reason to believe Waddle can eventually emerge as the top target. Parker is 28 years old, and Williams and Fuller have a long history of injuries. However, Mike Gesicki will likely continue to be a factor in the passing game for years.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
The biggest obstacles in Waddle’s way from having a big season are not just his fellow pass-catchers but Tua and the game script.
Tua had a rough rookie campaign. He was benched not once but twice for journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. At the end of it all, Tua’s numbers were not great, and he found himself near the bottom of several categories:
- 5.7 PAA (27th)
- 32.4 EPA (28th)
- 24.6 EPA-Pass (29th)
I’ve decided to give Tua a pass (not sorry) because he was coming off a severe injury without any real offseason. Hopefully, he can find his stride in his sophomore year.
Game script is the other obstacle for Waddle. The Dolphins’ had a +66 point differential in 2020, and the team will work to increase that margin likely by controlling the clock and establishing the run. The most telling example is Miami’s pass attempts in 2020. Tua ranked 38th with an average of just 29 attempts per game. Fitzpatrick was just two spots above Tua at 29.67 per game. The Dolphins don’t want to be a pass-dependent offense & likely won’t need to be with their defense.
Waddle is a dynasty grab but a redraft stash.
JALEN HURTS & DEVONTA SMITH
The Eagles needed a WR1, and now they have one in Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith. Philly’s pass catchers were among the worst in the league in 2020. Smith can make an immediate impact in Philadelphia.
College
We don’t yet know what a Jalen Hurts-DeVonta Smith combo will look like on the field. The two really only played together at Alabama in 2017 when Smith was a true freshman. Smith only recorded eight catches that season for 160 yards and three touchdowns. Hurts then lost his starting job to Tua in 2018, and the rest is history.
Pro-Environment
Not only is Smith joining a mediocre group of receivers, but it also appears Hurts was unable to develop a primary target in his three full games under center in 2020. Here’s a recap:
- Jalen Reagor: 2/46, 5/49, 3/20
- Greg Ward: 2/20, 4/15/2, 2/27
- Travis Fulgham: 0/0, 2/30, 2/27
- Dallas Goedert: 4/43, 4/39, 3/38
The lack of favoritism in Hurts’ small sampling is encouraging for Smith managers. The door is wide open for the rookie to become the top target.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
There’s reason to believe Hurts can make a leap in 2021. Last season was just weird for Philadelphia. Hurts is now QB1 for the Eagles, and he has an entire offseason to prepare.
For Hurts to help Smith succeed, Hurts has to improve on his accuracy. In his three complete games in 2020, Hurts threw for 330+ yards twice, but he needed many attempts to get there (44, 39). His completion percentage was under 55% in both games. He finished the year 74th with a 6.4 accuracy rating.
On the positive side for Smith, Hurts only recorded 8.1 air yards per attempt. That creates an excellent recipe for Smith cutting across the middle from the slot. In his final season at Alabama, Smith finished the year with 15.9 yds/rec, which was the fewest of his college career.
Hurts’ rushing ability will take away some opportunities for any Eagles wide receiver. In just four starts in 2020, Hurts finished 8th in carries and rush yards and scored three rushing touchdowns. If Smith can emerge as Hurts’ favorite target, he’ll still get the ball plenty.
TREVOR LAWRENCE & TRAVIS ETIENNE
This reunion for Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne is both fantastic and frustrating for fantasy. On the one hand, you have a QB/RB duo from the same college selected in the first round for the first time in the common draft era. On the other hand, Etienne is joining a fantasy darling in the Jaguars’ backfield.
College
Lawrence and Etienne enjoyed three dominating seasons together at Clemson, which included a national championship in 2018. Their success is well documented, but Etienne’s numbers were just outrageous in his four years as a Tiger. He rushed for more than 1,600 yards in a season twice and recorded 78(!!) total touchdowns by the time he graduated.
Pro-Environment
The fantasy world was ready to watch Etienne dominate in the NFL as he did in college, but he got drafted by the Jags. James Robinson was the Cinderella story of the 2020 fantasy season when he finished as RB7. Now, there’s likely going to be some timeshare in 2021.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Many like to compare Etienne to Alvin Kamara. That would be ideal because in Kamara’s rookie year, both he and Mark Ingram finished in the Top 6 in fantasy. Urban Meyer hasn’t gone that far. Meyer has only compared Etienne to his former players Curtis Samuel and Percy Harvin. Those comparisons aren’t a bad thing. Under Meyer, both Samuel and Harvin thrived. They both recorded 15 or more TDs and over 1,300 total yards in their final seasons with Meyer as his RB/WR weapons. See for yourself:
With the right game plan, both Etienne and Robinson can thrive in 2021. J Rob could be Ingram while Etienne is Kamara. That is their absolute ceiling. When it comes to their dynasty outlook, Etienne is the choice in this backfield. The rookie will emerge as the lead back in Jacksonville, and it’s just a matter of when not if.
Trevor Lawrence’s rookie campaign could be similar to 2020 Joe Burrow when he was healthy. Joey B threw a lot, as we mentioned before. The Jags defense could also be a factor. In 2020, Jax gave up the 2nd most points and had the league’s 2nd worst point differential at -186. That’s the worst point differential for the franchise since 2013. The defense has a long way to go to be average, so Urban Meyer will need T-Law to throw a lot to catch up. Expect the #1 pick to throw 30-50 times a game to his young weapons, and as we know in fantasy: Usage is critical.
Trevor’s rushing ability should also be a scoring factor. Dabo Swinney wasn’t afraid to draw up rushing plays for Trevor at Clemson. As a sophomore, Lawrence rushed for 563 yards on 103 attempts and scored nine touchdowns. His rushing attempts dropped to 68 last year, but he still found the endzone eight times. We can expect Meyer to also take advantage of Lawrence’s rushing ability with a QB history of Tim Tebow, Cardale Jones, and Braxton Miller.
BUY both in Dynasty and redraft.
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