This Exciting RB Prospect Had Better Be On Your Radar

Pros

Izzy Abanikanda is a dynamic running back who may not be widely known yet, but he is getting good buzz as we approach the 2023 NFL Draft. He was only a 3-star recruit heading into college, but he steadily increased his production and broke out in 2022. Izzy averaged 5.6 yards per rush over his college career and 6.0 in 2022. After the top six or so ranked running backs at the moment, Izzy is among a group that could still have fantasy impact in a good situation, which underscores the depth of this 2023 class.

Izzy has a good size/athleticism combination. Neither attribute is eye-popping, but both are above average, and we like to see that combo in running backs. He is a classic downhill runner who is the one-cut-and-go type, showing good acceleration and power through the hole. That power is evident as he welcomes contact in the second level and engages linebackers with authority. Izzy has good contact balance and

Pitt didn’t use Izzy much as a receiver, and while he can show improvement in that area, he is likely not getting enough credit for his upside as a pass-catcher. He also doesn’t have elite speed, but if he tests well enough at the combine for his size, he should be fine.

If you are more analytically oriented, there are some things to like about Izzy. He is an early declare, and his draft age will be 20; he doesn’t turn 21 until October. He crosses the common thresholds of 205 lbs. (at 215) and 29 BMI (at an estimated 30.0). His dominator rating ranges from the high 30s to 46.5%, depending on which outlet is referenced; any figure in that range is excellent. If we assume his listed weight of 215 and a 40-time of 4.5, which is very likely, Izzy’s speed score would be 104.86, another very good mark – the threshold is 100, and 105 or higher is considered excellent.

According to PFF, among 2023 eligible Running backs with at least 100 attempts in 2022 (n=65), Izzy tied for RB7 in rushing grade (90.6). He was RB13 in breakaway run percentage at 44.2, and tied for RB8 ix explosive runs (runs of 10+ yards). He doesn’t have elite top-end speed, but what matters more for running backs is having enough speed and acceleration to get those types of chunk plays.

Cons

The scouting community is a bit divided when it comes to Izzy’s twitchiness, footwork, and agility. It’s likely the truth on that kind of movement speed and short-area quickness is somewhere in the middle. He was RB42 in PFF elusiveness rating (58.1) among the 65 RBs who met the above criteria. Izzy’s game is power and acceleration.

Some scouting types believe vision and patience is often the most important trait for running backs. Here, Izzy could use some work. Additionally, he can be too comfortable between the tackles and sometimes run a bit too upright.

While Izzy is probably not getting enough credit for his receiving upside, he needs to show he can run more routes well and display more natural hands if he is going to be considered a reliable target with a three-down skill set. He was tied for RB53 on PFF’s receiving grade (51.4), so there is room for improvement.

Like many rookie running backs, Izzy needs to improve his pass protection (RB39 on PFF with a 37.2 grade), further limiting his three-down potential early on. Additionally, with a back of Izzy’s size and power, we’d want to see more yards after contact per attempt (RB51 with 2.67, per PFF).

From an analytics perspective, we’d want to see Izzy with a bigger target share; his was 6.2%. While Izzy hit the desired marks for several metrics (including RYOE and RYOE/ATT) in year 3, his overall yards per attempt figure falls a bit short, as does his receptions market share.

Summary

Izzy Abanikanda is an exciting runner with definite potential to be fantasy relevant for your dynasty teams. It’s still early in draft season. The combine, interviews/visits, and of course eventual draft capital and landing spot will all tell us a lot.

If he can get even early day 3 draft capital (round 4 or 5) in the 2023 NFL Draft, and go somewhere where he can start as a two-down back in a committee as he tries to improve at pass protection and receiving, or as a backup to a veteran toward the end of a contract, he will be an attractive value pick in rookie drafts. Since Izzy ran 71.5% of his 2022 attempts in a zone-blocking scheme, it would also be good if he landed on a team that employs that scheme a majority of the time.

Based on those criteria, Miami (85th overall), Dallas (91st & 130th), Buffalo (92nd, 131st, & 140th), Carolina (94th, 115th, and 133rd), and Chicago (104th, 135th, & 138th) – if they don’t re-sign David Montgomery – seem like good fits.

Ideal Role: two-down back in a committee (to start out)

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: mid-2nd to mid-3rd

Player Comp: Chris Carson