Three Former 2nd-Round WRs Who Will Disappoint Year 3
These three wide receivers were drafted by their teams in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
KJ Hamler was purposely left off his list because of the plethora of injuries that have so far stalled his career. The other three have no such excuse.
Embed from Getty ImagesChase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers, 2020 NFL Draft, Round 2 Pick 49
Claypool finished last season as WR37.
2020 stats: 16 games, 109 targets, 62 receptions, 873 yards, 14.1 yards per reception, 9 touchdowns
2021 stats: 15 games, 105 targets, 59 receptions, 860 yards, 14.6 yards per reception, 2 touchdowns
Per Fantasy Pros, the Pittsburgh Steelers wide receivers have the third easiest schedule for wide receivers.
Claypool’s stats for his first two seasons are similar except for the touchdown production and his deep balls targets. In his rookie season, he had 31 deep targets. Last year he had 21. Last season he had a 27% air yards share, 18.7% target share, and aDOT of 11.5. Yes, he was working with a quarterback who graded 31st out of 38th on throws of 20+ yards. Ben Roethlisberger ranked 32nd out of 33 with 6.7 intended air yards per attempt. It didn’t help. But it also did not help that Claypool caught only one of 12 of his end zone targets last season.
This season there will be a new quarterback under season. It will be either Mitchell Trubisky (most likely) or Kenny Pickett. Last year in college, Pickett’s aDOT was 9.7. In his second season in the NFL, Trubisky had his highest aDOT, 9.4. Both would be an improvement over last year.
However, the problem wasn’t all quarterback related. Last season Claypool scored on 1.9% of his red zone targets. In his rookie year, he scored 8.3%.
Last season Claypool was supposed to step up with the injury of Ju
Ju Smith-Schuster. He didn’t. According to Matt Harmon, “ Claypool didn’t progress as a technician, stalled as a separator, and continued to struggle in contested situations.”
In addition to the work he must do as a receiver, Claypool will have the addition of newly drafted George Pickens, Calvin Austin, free agent Anthony Miller, and target hog Diontae Johnson to battle.
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Peter Chung @FF_Hypermon poetically mentions in his makeup or breakup letter to Claypool that Claypool had 83 combined yards lost from penalties. That was the most among all offensive skill positions. Claypool had more penalties (8) than targets inside the 10-yard line (6), touchdowns (2), or average targets per game (7). He also only had six games where he finished inside the 40 in fantasy scoring. (Yes, Peter breakup)
Fantasy Football Calculator has Claypool’s current ADP of 9.09. That is, he is the ninth pick in the ninth round. In Fantasy Pros ranking, he is WR42 in standard fantasy leagues and WR44 in PPR leagues.
From his rookie season to his second year, Claypool was trending downward. The question for our fantasy purpose is can he reverse the trend in this his third year, or will he continue to disappoint our fantasy teams?
At his current ADP in both standard and PPR redraft leagues, he must play better than 44 other wide receivers not to disappoint. Last season he finished as WR37.
Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams, NFL Draft 2020 Round 2, Pick #57
2020 stats: 31 targets, 19 receptions, 220 yards, 1 touchdown, 7.1 yards/target, 11.6 yards/receptions
2021 stats: 89 targets, 50 receptions, 802 yards, 6 touchdowns, 9 yards/target, 16 yards/reception2
According to Fantasy Pros, the Rams’ wide receivers have the sixth hardest strength of schedule for wide receivers.
In the 2020 season, Jefferson sat behind Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds, obviously limiting his output. In 2021, Reynolds departed, and Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t make an appearance until later. Jefferson became WR# increasing his production by 153% in receptions, 265% in yards, and 500% in touchdowns (of course, that’s easier to do when your first production is so low, but the numbers look amazing)!
This year the Rams brought in Allen Robinson so Jefferson may once again be WR3. The good news is that he is going to be WR3 in an offense that was in an 11-personnel 86% of the time (most in the league) and averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game (10th in the league).
Per Fantasy Football Calculator, Jefferson’s ADP currently sits at 13.05. He is the 68th wide receiver off the board in standard leagues, the 65th in PPR leagues, and the 55th in half PPR leagues (per fantasypros.com).
Last season he had six games with at least 13.8 fantasy points and finished as WR31 (in half PPR), playing behind Kupp and Beckham. If Beckham returns to the Rams, Jefferson will again revert back to WR4 on the team. In that case, brace yourself for disappointment. Otherwise, count on Reynolds to continue his upswing, limiting your disappointment of drafting him in the 13 round or later.
Denzel Mims, New York Jets, 2020 NFL Draft Round 2, Pick 59th
2020 stats: 9 games, 23 receptions, 45 targets, 357 yards, 7.9 yards/target, 15.5 yards/reception
2021 stats: 11 games, 23 targets, 8 receptions, 133 yards, 5.8 yards/targets, 16.6 yards/reception
Okay, first, let’s address the elephant in the room, Mims has zero touchdowns in two seasons. Last season he had the third worst catch rate among 271 receivers, catching eight receptions on 23 targets for a whopping 34.8% catch rate. He was third among wide receivers in penalties racking up five while only being on the field for 279 offensive snaps (9.3%), and he had a drop rate of 20%, which was the sixth-worst out of 170 qualified wide receivers.
Is there any question as to why Mims was one of the least targeted wide receivers in the NFL? On plays in which he ran a route, he was targeted 12.2% of the time. That ranks him the 127th out of 146 qualified wide receivers.
Per Fantasy Pros, the Jets’ wide receivers have the hardest strength of schedule for wide receivers this season. And now, Mims will enter the season firmly planted behind Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and rookie Garrett Wilson.
If you draft Mims as anything other than a punt play in the final round of a 22-round draft, it’s all on you.
So, What Now?
In spite of Claypool’s proclamations, he has been trending down. This season he will play with a new quarterback and will have to fend off the rookie Pickens for targets and field time.
Reynolds is trending up, and chances are, even if Beckham returns, he will be coming off a late-season injury. Reynolds is playing in a prolific offense, and Kupp will command a lot of attention, allowing for other receivers to shine. Robinson will get his, but Reynolds will not be too far behind. If you can pick him up 13th round or later, it is worth a shot.
Unless you thrive on disappointment it will be best to stay clear of Mims.
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