Trendy RB Jonathon Brooks: Is He Special?

RB Jonathon brooks – texas
6’0″ | 207 lbs.
Career Stats: (rushing) 238 att 1475 yds 16 td (receiving) 28 rec 335 yds 2 TD

Pros

Jonathon Brooks is a fast riser this draft season thanks to a well-rounded skillset and strong indications NFL teams like him a good deal. He is currently my rookie RB2, 16th overall in a superflex format, though very little separates my top eight running backs. There has been a lot of talk recently about him being the first running back taken in the 2024 NFL Draft.

That’s notably significant, considering his somewhat thin production profile and November 2023 ACL tear. That means the NFL feedback he got was, “We know all that; still come out after three years – we like you that much.” For what it’s worth, Brooks is Lance Zierlein’s highest-graded RB, scoring 6.38.

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Brooks shows explosiveness and burst, as well as agility, elusiveness, solid vision, and good contact balance. He has a good jump cut and efficient change of direction movements and is a capable receiver. Importantly, Brooks is among the best pass protectors in this running back class, which will keep him on the field for more snaps.

That last part is important but often misunderstood. It’s true that many pass-catching backs we like aren’t asked to block, and we don’t care if they can. But when a running back is good at rushing, pass protection, and receiving (think Kyren Williams), that means the team is rarely tipping off what a given play is by that back’s presence or absence on the field. That puts the offense (and the back) in an advantageous situation against defenses. We have to like that for fantasy purposes.

Analytically, Brooks won’t pop in a lot of categories because of low early college production. That will happen when you play on teams with Roschon Johnson, Bijan Robinson, and Cedric Baxter. Still, he emerged in 2023 as the starter and was playing very well before the knee injury.

We won’t get combine numbers on Brooks, but it’s estimated he’d be in the high 4.4s to low 4.5s in the 40-yard dash, giving him a pretty good speed score. What will be important for Brooks at the combine are measurements, interviews, and, of course, medical reports.

His year 3 numbers are encouraging, including 231.5 PPR fantasy points in 10 games, a 91.8 PFF rushing grade, and 2.03 games played-adjusted yards per team play (yptp). His career marks of 6.2 ypa, 4.13 yards after contact per attempt (yco/a), .34 missed tackles forced per attempt (mtf/a), and 150.3 PFF elusiveness grade also check important boxes. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)

Cons

The most obvious concern we have about Brooks will be his knee and how he comes back from that injury. As I noted above, the NFL still gave him good enough grades that he decided to declare for the draft, but it will be a situation to monitor, and we’re not looking at Brooks making any significant rookie year contributions until later in the 2024 season. That has to be part of our calculations in our dynasty rookie drafts. On a positive note, he won’t be 21 until July 2024, so he may not be losing much time on his NFL running back career ticking clock.

We’d also like prospects to have had better early career production, but we have to weigh the depth chart at least a little bit in Brooks’ case.

Given what Brooks will likely be asked to do in the NFL, we want to see him add just a little weight and play around 215-220 pounds. That should be easy for him to do. It could be helpful because, as Ryan Cearfoss noted on our flagship show, Brooks is not always the best breaker of tackles on a play-to-play basis despite very good contact balance.

Analytically, Brooks’ meager early career production will hurt his grades in some models, but the solid year 3 will do well for those that weight “best season” marks heavily. Still, that third year included suboptimal numbers for games played-adjusted dominator rating (32%) and backfield dominator rating (46%). Additionally, while few backs in this class met the career 1.5 y/rr threshold, Brooks was one of the many who fell short (1.44). (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)

Summary

Jonathon Brooks has a skillset with three-down upside, at least for what that entails in today’s NFL, and seems to be among the NFL’s favorite running backs in this class. The ACL and late/limited production are slight concerns but not huge red flags.

It’s still early. We still have to get through a free agent running back class that includes players like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and D’Andre Swift. Cut candidates include Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb.

As for the rookie running backs, a giant tier of eight or so are still clustered together and, at this point, could go in almost any order come NFL Draft time, and could all be scattered from the late 2nd to the 5th round.

Brooks has been mocked as high as pick 57 overall (Dallas, who also has 87). Other interesting destinations include any of the teams who don’t retain a veteran named above, as well as Houston (59, 86, 104), Baltimore (62, 93, 131), Kansas City (64, 95, 133), Carolina (65, 102, 141), the Chargers (69, 106, 139), Arizona (71, 90, 105), and Philadelphia (97). Other plausible spots would put Brooks firmly in a committee situation, making him even more of “a 2025 play.”

Strengths

• agility/change of direction
• explosiveness and burst
• vision at all levels
• contact balance
• pass protection

Concerns

• inexperience/early production
• could use a little weight
• won’t be a burner
• November 2023 ACL injury

2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: 2nd round (likely early to mid) in a 12-team, superflex, tight end premium format

Ideal Role: lead back/1A with 3-down upside

Player Comp: LeVeon Bell, Trey Sermon, Melvin Gordon, Tony Pollard