Vulnerable Veterans: To The AFC/NFC North!

The 2023 NFL Draft is set to begin Thursday, April 27th @ 8PM EST.  For some NFL veterans, this is the moment when their respective teams draft rookies who could very well replace them by the beginning of the next season (2024).  In this four-part series, I will cover one player on each team that is vulnerable to being replaced by a 2023 rookie by the start of the 2024 season.

The first entry into the Vulnerable Veterans series takes a look at the AFC and NFC North.  Each team’s picks are as of the pre-NFL draft and do not account for any projected trades.

AFC NORTH

Vulnerable Veteran | J.K. Dobbins (Running Back)

A second-round pick in 2020, Dobbins is entering the final year of his rookie contract with mixed results.  The former Buckeye ramped up his workload in the latter half of his first season, ending his rookie year with 160 total yards and two total touchdowns.  Dobbins lost his sophomore season to a torn ACL, with lingering effects into year three despite three top-10 PPR fantasy performances.

After 2023, the only running back on the roster is Justice Hill, who only has a dead cap figure of $500K.  With the hopes that Lamar Jackson returns in 2023, Baltimore could look to add another running back or two.  While Dobbins will be heavily utilized in 2023, look for Baltimore to find his replacement in the 2023 draft.  An interesting addition would be Tyjae Spears (Tulane).

Vulnerable Veteran | All Tight Ends

The last tight end the Bengals selected with notable draft capital was Drew Sample (2019 second round).  The former Washington Husky has not made much of an impact and free agency addition, Irv Smith, feels like more of a depth signing.  Look for the Bengals to capitalize on a deep tight end class with stability at wide receiver.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow already has a strong trio of pass catchers in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. What the Cincinnati offense is missing is a stable presence at tight end.  Mock drafts have slotted many of the top rookie tight ends being drafted by Cincinnati, including: Michael Mayer (Notre Dame), Dalton Kincaid (Utah) and Darnell Washington (Georgia).

Vulnerable Veteran | Donovan Peoples-Jones (Wide Receiver)

It seems like only yesterday, DPJ tumbled to the Browns in the sixth round.  The former Michigan Wolverine is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Despite improving year-over-year, DPJ is firmly behind Amari Cooper.  In 2023, DPJ may either play himself into a contract the Browns cannot afford or underperform and be replaced.

An interesting offseason addition includes the Browns trading for Elijah Moore, who fell out of favor with Gang Green.  However, the two 2023 rookies that have been mocked to the Browns are UNC’s Josh Downs and Cincinnati’s Tyler Scott.  Both would be tremendous weapons for franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Vulnerable Veteran | Diontae Johnson (Wide Receiver)

There are three constants in life: death, taxes, and the Steelers developing wide receivers.  Since 2017, the Steelers have drafted five receivers within the first three rounds. Those receivers include Juju Smith-Schuster (2017), James Washington (2018), Diontae Johnson (2019), Chase Claypool (2020) and George Pickens (2022).  Claypool was traded away in 2022, Pickens is on his rookie contract and Johnson looks to be on the outs.

It is noteworthy that Johnson received an extension prior to the 2022 season.  This was, however, a two-year extension with palatable outs. The Steelers will experience cap savings of $10.0M and a dead cap of ~$5.8M if he is released following the 2023 season.  Names such as Jonathan Mingo (Ole Miss) and Zay Flowers (Boston College) have emerged in recent mock drafts.

NFC NORTH

Vulnerable Veteran | Darnell Mooney & Chase Claypool (Wide Receiver)

The Bears have amassed a war chest of cap room and draft capital after trading away Khalil Mack, Roquan Smith and the 2023 first-overall pick.  This series of trades yielded the Bears two wide receivers in DJ Moore and Chase Claypool. The latter did, however, cost the Bears the valuable 32nd overall pick in 2023.

Behind Moore, Claypool and Darnell Mooney currently serve as the supporting cast and will be free agents after 2023. The Bears can aim to resign one of the two and utilize the 2023 draft to find a cheaper replacement.  A potential rookie replacement would be Marvin Mims (Oklahoma).

Vulnerable Veteran | D’Andre Swift (Running Back)

The Lions undoubtedly need to sure up what was one of the NFL’s worst defenses in 2022.  But this is fantasy football so we are looking at skill positions. And it is with a heavy heart that D’Andre Swift could be off the roster by 2024.  When healthy Swift has been an explosive player, finishing top-15 in fantasy points per game (PPR) since 2020.

Despite this per-game production, Swift has been in and out of the lineup with various injuries.  Further, the Lions have shown a proclivity to more powerful runners. The offseason departure of Jamaal Williams led to the signing of his replacement, David Montgomery.  With Swift entering the final year of his rookie contract, look for the Lions to draft a more affordable back such as the unanimous dynasty 1.01, Bijan Robinson (Texas).

Vulnerable Veteran | All Tight Ends

While there is no Chase or Higgins on the roster, this may look similar to the Bengals’ write-up.  So bear with me.  The last time the Packers spent higher than a third-round pick was back in 2000 when they selected Bubba Franks with the 14th pick.  With Robert Tonyan signing with the Bears and Josiah Deguara still Josiah Deguara, look for the Packers to nab one of the top tight-end prospects in 2023.

As of the writing of this article, no Aaron Rodgers trade has been finalized.  Thus, the Packers do not yet have additional picks.  The point remains that Green Bay is in line to select one of Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid or Darnell Washington.

Vulnerable Veteran | Wide Receivers Not Named Justin Jefferson

Despite rumblings of Dalvin Cook being on the outs in Minnesota, I am of the belief that the Vikings will go back to the rookie wide receiver well.  The release of Adam Thielen left a void on the outside opposite Justin Jefferson.  And no KJ Osborn is not Thielen’s replacement, as I would expect him to continue his slot role (59.2% slot rate in 2022).

With some intriguing wide receivers in the 2023 rookie class, I expect the Vikings to go one of two ways.  The “fun” option is to swing for the fences and draft Quentin Johnston (TCU) and hope to mold his athletic, gargantuan frame into a more polished wide receiver.  The “safe” option is to draft Jordan Addison (USC) and utilize his ability to play inside and out, giving the Vikings schematic versatility.

2023 NFL DRAFT

Mark your calendars, if you haven’t already, for April 27th @ 8PM EST to see which veterans could be out of a job by the start of the 2024 season.  And look out for the next installment of Vulnerable Veterans, where I go down south to cover AFC and NFC, you guessed it, South.

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