Week 16: Best Bets To Win Against The Spread
Week 16 is upon us and we only have two weeks of picks in the regular season. My Week 15 picks were 3-2 and I hope that this week is another successful week. Below are my Week 16 best bets to win against the spread.
My Week 15 Picks
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-5)
The San Francisco 49ers have had injuries all season long, and Week 16 is no different. Nick Mullins is out with a possible season ending elbow injury. Starting at quarterback for the 49ers will be C.J. Beathard. In the running game, the 17th ranked 49erswill be lead by Jeff Wilson because Raheem Mostert suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 15. Look for Jerrick McKinnon to sprinkled in a little bit to keep the Arizona Cardinals defense off balance. The Cardinals are ranked 17th in the NFL against the run. In four of the last five games, the Cardinals have given up more than 110 yards on the ground. The 49ers will need to be successful on the ground if they want to win. Their passing game will be lead by Brandon Ayuick and Kendrick Bourne if Deebo Samuel is out again with an injury.
The Arizona Cardinals are lead by Kyler Murray at quarterback, who is as much of a threat in the run game as he is with his arm. Murray has rushed for 741 yards this season. The Cardinals will also look to Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds on the ground. But to win the game, I believe it will be DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk at wide receiver who will lead the Cardinals to victory. Hopkins leads the NFL I receiving yards with 1,324 yards, and he will look to have another successful game against the 49ers. But it will not be easy because the 49ers defense is ranked 4th against the pass. The interesting stat to me is even though both the 49ers pass and rush defense rank in the top 10, their only ranked 17th in the league in scoring defense. For the Cardinals to be successful, they will need to take advantage of that and score as many points as possible on offense.
The 49ers are 5-9 against the spread and 4-3 ATS on the road. The Cardinals are 7-7 against the spread and are 3-4 ATS at home. A major key to me in this game is that the Cardinals still have playoff aspirations to play for. The 49ers injuries have affected them all year and this game will be no different. I look for the Cardinals to win by a touchdown. MY PICK: Arizona Cardinals -5.
Embed from Getty ImagesLos Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-1)
The Los Angeles Rams are coming off a horrendous loss against the Jets in Week 15, but to keep their NFC West hopes alive Week 16 is a must win. The Seahawks are ranked 32nd in passing defense in the NFL. This looks to be the perfect bounce back spot for Jared Goff and the passing offense. At wide receiver, the Rams have Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Kupp had a disappointing Week 15 but I expect him to have an outstanding game. At running back, the Rams will be without their standout rookie Cam Akers. So I expect it to be a heavy load of Darrell Henderson. The Rams are the 9th tanked rush offense but watch out because the Seahawks have the 3rd best defense against the run. SO, if the Rams are to win on the road Jared Goff must have an outstanding gamea
Something has been missing from the offense and the running game more specifically. With running backs like Chris, Carson, Carlos Hyde, the Seahawks should be more productive than they have been. The Seahawks are ranked 12th in the NFL in rush offense, but I believe they should easily be in the top ten. But the main issue is that it affects the passing game as well. The Problem is their offensive line has more holes than a piece of swiss cheese. Wilson has been average as of late and needs to get D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett involved if they will beat the Rams.
The Rams are 8-6 against the spread and 4-3 ATS on the road. The Seahawks 7-7 against the spread and 5-2 at home. The Seahawks are not playing with fans this season, so they don’t have the home field advantage like they normally do. I expect it to be a close game division battle. Whose offense will come through at the key moment? MY PICK: Los Angeles +1.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
The Denver Broncos have struggled all year, and I do not see that changing in Week 16. Quarterback Drew Lock has struggled this year, being the franchise quarterback that the Broncos thought they drafted. The Broncos have the 28th ranked passing offense, and it’s showing in their 5-9 record. They have weapons in K.J. Hamler, Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant, but the Broncos have done anything to show that they can. In the running game, Melvin Gordon has proven lately that he can be productive when called upon. He might not have high yardage numbers, but he will hope to have a big game in his first trip back to LA.
The Los Angeles Chargers have struggled just as much as the Broncos this year. However, they are a more talented team. They still need to put it all together for a complete game to win against the Broncos. The running game has gotten back on track since Austin Eckler has come back from injury. Eckler looks to be successful against a defense that is ranked 28th against the run. He has also become a key outlet receiver for quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers have the 5th ranked passing offense, and that is all thanks to Justin Herbert and his receiving corp of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and tightened Hunter Henry. The Broncos have struggled on defense, and I expect that to continue.
The Broncos are 8-6 against the spread and 3-4 on the road. The Chargers are 7-7 against the spread and 3-4 at home. To me, these are two teams with similar records but not similar talent. To me, this spread is not indicative of how the game will be at all. MY PICK: Los Angeles Chargers -3.5.
Embed from Getty ImagesTennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers (-3)
The Tennessee Titans are 10-4 so far this season and still have a chance to win the AFC North. It is no secret that their best player is running back Derrick Henry. Henry currently leads the league in rushing and is only one of three backs to have over 1,000 yards this season. The Titans are ranked 2nd in rushing offense in the NFL. The Packers rush defense is ranked 11th in the NFL, so this will be a key battle that the Titans should win. At quarterback, the Titans have Ryan Tannehill, who is becoming one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL. At wide receiver, the Titans have A.J. Brown and Corey Davis for Tannehill to throw the ball to. The Titans are ranked 19th in total passing offense, but Tannehill can produce big games if needed. Will he do so against the 9th ranked Packers defense? That is the biggest question for the Titans offense for me.
The Green Bay Packers are trying to earn the first round bye in the playoffs, so they still have plenty to play for in Week 16. Aaron Rodgers will look to bounceback from a subpar game in Week 15. Against Tennessee, he will need to have an outstanding game if the Packers are going to win. Throughout the season, the Packers have used both Aaron Jones and Jammal Williams at running back. But last week was the Jones show, and I think that continues this Sunday. The Packers offense is ranked 8th in rush offense, and the Titans are ranked 15th in rush defense. But the biggest factor to me will be that the Titans are only the 29th ranked pass defense. Devonte Adams, Allan Lazard, and Robert Tonyan will be targeted by Rodgers early and often. I expect the passing game to be very successful for the Packers.
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The Titans are 7-7 against the spread and 3-3 ATS on the road. The Packers 8-6 against the spread and 4-3 ATS at home. This will be a high scoring affair. I believe that both teams will be successful on offense but will the Titans do enough on offense to win on the road. MY PICK: Green Bay Packers -3.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots (+7)
The Buffalo Bills have already won the AFC East, but playoff seeding is still up for grabs in the last two weeks of the season. The Bills running game has gotten over the last couple of weeks, and it is perfect timing for the Playoffs. Running back Devin Singletary has shown that he can be a successful player in the NFL. Will that continue this week? I think so. The Patriots do not have much to play for, and I think it will show. The Bill passing game has been lead by quarterback JJosh Allen and star wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs is the league leader in receptions and has become the go to target for Allen throughout the season. They also have Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis on the outside. The passing game for the Bills is ranked 5th in the NFL, and I don’t see that changing this week. Yes, the Patriots are the 6th ranked pass defense, but I am not sure if that will matter much.
The Patriots offense has not been great all year, and that is no secret. Quarterback Cam Newton has been decent but never did enough to get the Patriots key victories throughout the season. Running back, Sony Michel is back, and with Damien Harris, in Week 15, Michel was the lead back. In the passing game, the only targets Newton has are Damien Byrd and Jacoby Myers. The Bills defense will look to continue their successful season. They are ranked 16th in scoring defense, but to me, they come through at the moments that their team needs them the most. This could be a higher scoring game, and if that is true, that game script does not favor the Patriots.
The Bills are 9-5 against the spread and 4-3 ATS on the road. The Patriots are 6-8 against the spread and 4-2 ATS at home. The Patriots need to play a complete game if they have any chance of winning this game. Personally, I think that the Bills offense is starting to roll at the right time. MY PICK: Buffalo Bills -7.
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