Week 17: Best Bets To Win Against The Spread
We have reched the end of 2020 and the end of the football season. Unfortunately Week 17 is finally upon us. But I am here to win you some money on New Years weekend. Last week I went 2-3. Here were my Week 16 Picks. Below are Week 17 best bets to win against the spread
My Week 17 Picks
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (+6.5)
Both the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions are out of the playoff picture but will try to win in Week 17 for pure pride. The Vikings will be without star running back Dalvin Cook. In the running game, they will need to lean on Alexander Mattison. The Vikings are ranked 6th in rushing offense, but Mattison will have to step up his game if the Vikings have a chance. In the Passing game quarterback, Kirk Cousins will need to have a big game. The Vikings are 18th ranked passing offense in the NFL, and with the weapons they have, that is just not good enough.
The Lions have been an overall disappointment this season, but can they Week 17 win. Matthew Stafford has been banged up lately, and it is not certain if he will play in Week 17 or not. Either way, they will need to get their running game involved early. Rookie D’Andre Swift will look to have a breakout game against the Vikings defense ranked 28th against the run. In the passing game, the main target will be T.J. Hockenson for the Lions to succeed. Even if backup Chase Daniels plays at quarterback, I think the passing game can be successful.
The Vikings are 6-9 against the spread and 4-3 ATS on the road. The Lions are 6-9 against the spread and 2-5 ATS at home. Both teams will be hungry to finish the season with a victory. Divisional games are usually close, and I don’t see this being any different. The Vikings without Cook will not get a big lead, and the Lions will keep it close. MY PICK: Detroit Lions +6.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (-14)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have nothing to play for; however, the Indianapolis Colts need this win to have a chance to get into the playoffs. Mike Glennon is starting at quarterback in Week 17 and will be without running back James Robinson. Without Robinson, the Jaguars will struggle against the 2nd ranked Colts run defense. The Jaguars receiving corps has been inconsistent at best this season, and that includes standout D.J. Chark. Chark is questionable and could be held out. I don’t see the Jaguars having much success as they are looking to next season.
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has gotten on track in the last month or so and will look continue that against a Jaguars defense that is only ranked 27th against the run. The Jaguars have given up more than 120 yards on the ground in five straight games. Quarterback Phillip Rivers will look to exploit a struggling Jaguars pass defense. The Jaguars are 2nd worst against tight ends, so watch out for Trey Burton and Jack Doyle. At wide receiver, veteran T.Y. Hilton has shown in the second half of the season that he is not washed up yet. I think the Colts offense will have a big game against a defense that gave up over 40 points last week.
The Jaguars are 6-9 against the spread and 3-4 ATS on the road. The Colts are 8-7 against the spread and 3-4 ATS at home. The Jaguars are without their three top defensive backs and already have a struggling defense that is not a good sign. Yes, I say divisional games are usually close, but not this time. MY PICK: Indianapolis Colts -14.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (+2.5)
The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants will be battling for a possible NFC East title. The Cowboys have struggled all season but look to put it together in Week 17. Ezekiel Elliott has had an off year, but he will look to have a second consecutive good game after running for 105-yard game in Week 16. Elliot and Tony Pollard will have to try to be successful against the Giants defense that is ranked 11th against the run in the NFL. The Cowboys have four out of six games since their bye week. Andy Dalton has had more than 30 pass attempts in five of those, and to win this week, I believe that will have to happen again. Dalton will look to get wide receivers Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb involved against a defense that has given up the 12th most yards to wide receivers this season.
Believe it or not, the key battle, in my opinion, is going to be the Giants 20th ranked rush offense versus the 32nd ranked Cowboys run defense. Running back Wayne Gallman must have a good game if the Giants want to pull off the win. During the Giants three game losing streak, Gallman’s best performance was only 57 yards, which against the Cowboys will not cut it. If Gallman cannot be successful against the Cowboys woeful run defense, the Giants will be in trouble. Quarterback Daniel Jones has struggled as of late and needs that to change this Sunday. The Giants have tight end Evan Engram, who looks like he has maybe turned the corner in the last two weeks. If the Cowboys defense gets pressure on Jones, Engram will need to be the outlet receiver that the Giants lean on.
The Cowboys are 5-10 against the spread and 2-5 ATS on the road. The Giants are 8-7 against the spread and 2-5 ATS at home. Both the Cowboys and Giants are struggling away/home, respectively, against the spread. With playoff ramifications on the line, this game will come done to who wants it more. Andy Dalton will do just enough to get the job done. MY PICK: Dallas Cowboys -2.5.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers (+7)
The New Orleans Saints are still in the hunt for the number one seed in the playoffs, so they will be looking for the win against a struggling Carolina Panthers. Alvin Kamara is coming off a six touchdown performance and now is going against the 16th ranked rushing defense. Kamara will look to have another big game. Quarterback Drew Brees is one more week removed from fractured ribs and a punctured lung. Some people think he came back one week early, and I look for him to have a good warm up game before the start of the playoffs. In the passing game, Michael Thomas and Jared Cook will be the main targets for Brees. But don’t forget that when Brees is at quarterback, Kamara is a mainstay in the passing game as well.
The Panthers running back Mike Davis will be in for a tough game against the 4th ranked rushing defense. But for the Panthers to have a chance on Sunday, the running game will need to at least be some successful if they want the Saints to respect the run. Teddy Bridgewater is a somewhat mobile quarterback and will need to use his legs if the Panthers have any chance of winning the game. Both Robbie Anderson and D.J. Moore have had up and done years at wide receiver this season. To be productive in the passing game, the Panthers will need both of them to be successful against the Saints. And don’t forget about the wild card player who also lines up in the backfield at times, Curtis Samuel.
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The Saints are 8-7 against the spread and 4-3 ATS on the road. The Panthers are 9-6 against the spread and 2-5 ATS at home. To me, this game is easy. The Saints need the win to improve their playoff seeding possibly, and the Panthers are a team that struggles against the spread at home. Who Dat Nation in full effect. MY PICK: New Orleans -7.
Washington Football Team vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+2)
The Washington Football Team will clinch the NFC East with a win against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are out of the playoff race. Washington cut Dwayne Haskins this week, which an interesting move. But knowing they need the win this week shows me that they think Alex Smith will be returning from injury. With the season on the line, I expect wide receiver Terry Mclaurin to also return from injury. The Eagles defense is 21st against the pass, which is concerning with Mclaurin and Smith possibly back. Also, watch out for tight end Logan Thomas, who is having a breakout season. On the ground, there are two running backs to watch out for Jarred McKissic and Antonio Gibson. Gibson has been the main guy on the ground when healthy in the second half of the season and is the main touchdown threat. But McKissic has been the pass catching threat all year, and we all know Smith likes to throw to running backs.
The Eagles have been a completely different offense since they benched quarterback Carson Wentz for Jalen Hurts. Hurts is a running quarterback, but in two of his three games, he has played against defenses in the bottom half of the NFL against the run. The defensive line leads Washington’s defense that is ranked 12th against the run. I don’t believe Washington will completely stop him, but they could keep him in check. In the passing game, the Eagles need someone to step up at wide receiver. I look for Hurts to target Desean Jackson deep, and for their sake, hopefully, Alshon Jeffrey and Travis Fulgham step up. Dallas Goedert will need to have a better game at tight end than he has had in the past few weeks. Miles Sanders has been a completely different running back since Hurts has been the quarterback. For the Eagles to have a chance, Sanders will have to be successful.
Washington is 9-6 against the spread and 4-3 ATS on the road. The Eagles are 5-10 against the spread and 4-3 ATS at home. The Eagles have been moving on offense lately, but Washington has an outstanding defense. They have an offense that won’t win games but won’t blow game with Smith at quarterback either. MY PICK: Washington Football Team -2.
Checkout my twitter @chieffan1002 for more advice and fantasy football banter. DM me with any other betting questions you have.
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