Week 2 Fantasy Football: Breakout or Fake Out?

Each week, I will look at this past weekend’s games to determine if some of the top performances from lesser owned players are sustainable(break out) or not(fake out) Many of these decisions will be based on whether or not the number of targets and touches(RBs) from the previous week are repeatable, and/or whether the efficiency on lower volume seems sustainable.

Breakouts

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Elijah Mitchell(RB-49ERS)

After Raheem Mostert exited the week one game vs the Lions early, Mitchell proceeded to amass 19 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown. On Tuesday, news broke that Mostert will undergo season-ending knee surgery, allowing Mitchell an opportunity to sustain a bountiful workload.

Fellow rookie Trey Sermon(3rd round selection from Ohio State) was a surprise healthy inactive for week one, while Mitchell(6th round-Louisiana) was Mostert’s primary backup. With Mostert out for the season and Jeff Wilson(meniscus surgery) out for 6-8 more weeks , it will be intriguing to watch the touches split between Mitchell, Sermon and Jamycal Hasty moving forward.

Ty’son Williams(RB-Ravens)

https://www.rotowire.com/football/player.php?id=13123

After losing both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to torn ACL’s during the preseason, the Ravens needed someone to spearhead their backfield. Although Latavius Murray was signed to a one year deal after being released by the Saints, Williams got the first chance to be the lead back on Monday night at the Raiders. Williams was very effective, rushing nine times for 65 yards and a touchdown. He also added three catches for 29 yards.

In 2020, the Ravens led the NFL in both rushes(555) and rushing yards(3071). Although both Le’veon Bell and Devonta Freeman also signed with the Ravens after Edwards’s injury. Williams has proven to be the most dynamic running back option available at this stage of their respective career. Williams will continue to get touches throughout the season.

More owned/Still Undervalued

Mike Williams(WR-Chargers) despite a low score victory (20-16) at Washington, Williams had eight catches(on twelve targets) for 82 yards and a touchdown. Williams was mostly a forgotten man during preseason, constantly being overshadowed by teammates Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen.

Although it sometimes seems that Williams is constantly injured, he has played in 46 games(out of a possible 48) over the last three years. Unfortunately his high target year was only 90 in 2019. While Herbert attempted an unsustainable 47 pass attempts, Williams’s 25 percent target share was very encouraging. Williams has always relied on the big play(17 touchdowns over the last three years), but increased targets would allow him to be a more well-rounded receiver.

Fake Outs

Jared Goff (QB-Lions)

After trailing 31-10 at half, the Lions turned to an aerial attack in an attempt to get back in the game. For the afternoon, Goff completed 38 of 57 passes for 338 passing yards and three touchdowns. Although the final numbers were good overall, the overall efficiency was not.

in comparison to previous years with the Rams, both the yards per attempt(5.9 vs 7.2) and yards per completion(8.9 to 10.7) were significantly less. Although one game does not make a season, the lack of receivers for deeper passing completions is glaringly obvious.

Mark Ingram (RB-Texans)

The Only Fantasy Waiver Article You’ll Need for Week 2

To follow up my esteemed colleague, Geoff Lambert, Ingram’s performance should be filed under the exceedingly unlikely to repeat column. Ingram had 26 carries for 85 yards(3.27 YPC) and a touchdown, but added zero receptions.

Leading 27-10 at the half and 34-14 at the end of the third quarter, the Texans had a chance to lean on Ingram and control the clock. It is very unlikely that the Texans have many(if any) leads like this for the rest of the season, and Ingram’s lack of receiving involvement is concerning in PPR leagues. In addition, Phillip Lindsay contributed a touchdown on the ground, while David Johnson had a receiving touchdown. A three headed committee on an offensively challenged team is certainly something to stay clear of.

Zach Pascal(WR-Colts)

Pascal had four catches(on five targets) for 43 yards and two touchdowns. Out of Carson Wentz’s 38 attempts, 21 went to RBs and TEs. Pascal had 5 targets, Michael Pittman had four targets, and Parris Campbell only had three.

Unfortunately, it will be hard to trust any Colts’s wide receiver moving forward with such a low volume passing attack to wideouts. In addition, T.Y. Hilton will possibly return from injury(neck surgery) in week four, making Pascal fourth on the WR depth chart. Despite having good games in the past, Pascal is better off left on your waiver wire.

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