Week 4: Most Overvalued/Undervalued Fantasy Players

Week 4 is here and once again we bring you undervalued players who might just help you win.  We also bring you players that have not quite made the big plays yet.  The ones who might need to stay on your bench until they produce.  We are already in pivotal games in the fantasy season where we need to start producing wins weekly to be in the playoff race, and byes are fast approaching.

Overvalued

Kyle Pitts- TE Falcons

I almost wrote about him in Week 3, but I thought better of it just knowing that his breakout game was approaching last week versus the Giants.  That didn’t happen, did it?  He has yet to get on page with Matt Ryan and though the offense won Week 3, it wasn’t flashy by any means.  The Falcons offense is struggling to say the least.  Pitts has had no more than five receptions in any games through three weeks, and in week two he saw his highest yard total at 73.  He has had no touchdowns either.  For the fact that he was drafted mostly in 1^st rounds right after Kelce, Kittle, and Waller, we sure did set him up in fantasy circles to be the up and coming superstar.  Now, can he still be that?  Absolutely, he has all the tools from superb athleticism, fluid route-running, and sticky hands that win every contested deep ball, but when is the big question?  Week 4, he faces Chase Young and the Football Team’s defense that have had their ups and downs as well but I would temper expectations that this is not the week he breaks out.  Maybe Week five vs the Jets weaker secondary, but we might have to wait on pins and needles till after the Falcons Week 6 bye where hopefully they get the act together.

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Alvin Kamara–RB Saints

This has less to do with the talent and more to do with the overall offense Alvin Kamara is in. Let’s start with the offensive line that has ranked outside the top 19 in 2nd level yards produced (5-10 yards gained after the line of scrimmage), open field yards (yards gained 10 yards after the line of scrimmage), and pass protection. Saints as a whole are 26th in the league in yards solely by the running backs. To add salt to the wound, they rank 24th in goal line and short yardage carries.  We know Alvin Kamara as an efficient runner, who does not need a lot of touches to return his high RB1 numbers we are accustomed to seeing. Everything about Kamara’s year is backwards. 3rd in carries, 6th in opportunity share, and 1st in target share. The volume is great, but Kamara is 21st in evaded tackles, 48th in yards per touch, 26th in receiving yards, 14th in rushing yards, and worst of all, 42nd in fantasy points per opportunity. 

The above numbers are not to say Kamara is declining, but more so the supporting cast around him has significantly declined, making defenses zone on him stopping him the priority. If there was a buy low window for Kamara (relatively speaking), that window is now. Once Michael Thomas returns, I think Kamara’s efficiency goes up a bit but the Drew Brees version of Kamara I do not see on the horizon, at least not this year.

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Undervalued

Logan Thomas -TE Washington Football Team

I feel as if every week we hear about Kelce, Waller, Hockenson, heck even Schultz after his monster game versus Eagles Monday night, but what Thomas is quietly doing is producing.  In leagues where streaming TES is rough, he has scored twice in three games and produced 117 yards.  Thomas is averaging 9.8 yards per reception and is ranked 9^th amongst TEs.  In Week 3, versus Buffalo, he had four receptions on four targets for 42 yards and a touchdown.  Now that isn’t astronomical by any means, but it is consistent and if you are streaming, consistency is key.  Week four he faces Atlanta’s secondary that has been generous to TEs.  So plug him into lineups where needed and expect a solid 10 points out of him.  Thomas is owned in 97% of ESPN leagues but could be a good package trade if looking for a TE!

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Christian Kirk-WR Cardinals

Kirk is someone we loved out of college, his landing spot made him a significantly more intriguing dynasty option than an immediate redraft option, since Larry Fitzgerald was part of the team still. Given Kirk’s natural position was the slot, he had to spend his first year playing majority of his snaps on the outside, but now for the first time in his career, he is running over 50% of his routes from the slot, which is paying dividends. Even though he is 54th in targets (17 targets), 34th in air yards (225), he is still return efficient numbers, not only in the box score but also fantasy. With the help of an absurd catch rate of 88.2% (3rd amongst all WR’s), and 6th in yards per target (14.1 yards), he is returning a healthy 0.72 fantasy points per route run (10th amongst all WR’s). Having gone for at least 65 yards in all three games so far, what we would like to see is his snap share of 56.6% (83rd), and 17 targets through three games (54th) go up. 

If he is able to maintain this efficiency in an offense that is catered to support it, I can easily see a scenario where not only his snap share increases, but also the targets. That is the only aspect of his game holding him back from truly breaking out. Your buy low window on Christian Kirk is now and won’t be getting cheaper from here. Grab yourselves part of the Lions, Colts, and Cowboys playoff schedules with Kirk in your lineup. Only owned in 31% of ESPN leagues.

That’s all folks. Have a great Week 4 and hit us up on Twitter at

Courtney Burrows @luvtractor3

Hamid Sandhu @FFJunkie85

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