Week 5 Fantasy Football: Breakout or Fake Out
Heading into week five of the NFL season, we received another fresh batch of potential waiver wire pick-ups. I will look at their week four performances, to see if the players have both the talent and opportunity to repeat their success moving forward. Before identifying week five’s suggestions, I will look back at week four’s players to see how they performed on the field.
Week Four Review:
Week 4 Fantasy Football: Breakout or Fake Out
In week four, I gave out two breakouts and two fake outs. My breakouts were Sam Darnold and Tim Patrick, while My fake outs were Desean Jackson and Peyton Barber. Despite two very costly turnovers in the Panthers’ 36-28 loss to the Cowboys, Darnold had a huge fantasy day. He completed 26 of 39 pass attempts for 301 yards and two touchdowns while adding six rushes for 35 yards and two more scores. Patrick had a lackluster performance (3 catches for 39 yards), on a day where Teddy Bridgewater left the game early with a concussion.
Neither Jackson nor Barber had a role in their respective games. After Josh Jacobs returned from missing two games with an ankle injury, he secured 13 of the team’s 15 rushing attempts. Barber had one carry for zero yards. It is now being reported by NBCSportsEdge.Com, that Barber may miss several weeks dealing with a turf toe injury. Meanwhile, Jackson had 1 catch(on 3 targets) for 6 yards. As mentioned in the week four post there are simply too many mouths to feed in the Rams’ offense for Jackson to be consistent.
Break Outs:
Taylor Heinicke(QB- Washington Football Team) in week four, Heinicke completed 23 of 33 pass attempts for 290 yards and three touchdowns. The very athletic QB also added five rushes for 43 yards. On the season, Heinicke has completed 82 of 118 for 960 yards and eight touchdowns. Season opener starter Ryan Fitzpatrick is out until early November with a hip injury.
Although Washington has a very tough schedule over the next nine weeks(vs Saints/vs Chiefs/ @ Packers/@ Broncos/ @ Panthers/vs Seahawks/ @Raiders/ vs Cowboys), they will find themselves in a position needing to utilize a heavy pass attack in most of them. I would look for Heinicke to be one of the better streaming quarterback options moving forward.
Darnell Mooney(WR-Bears) in week four, Mooney had the breakout performance that many fantasy owners had hoped for and expected throughout the early part of the season.
Mooney had five catches(on seven targets) for 125 yards, and added a ten-yard rush. Mooney now leads the Bears with 26 targets on the season, two ahead of Allen Robinson. He has caught 17 of those passes for 226 yards but has failed to score a touchdown.
On Wednesday, it was announced that Justin Fields would be the team’s starting quarterback for the rest of the season. On the season, Dalton’s average yard per attempt was only 5.3. Mooney should be involved with more deeper routes moving forward. If the offensive line can keep Fields upright(nine sacks in week three against the Browns). Mooney has both the talent and opportunity to be a reliable WR3/flex for the rest of the season.
Kenny Gainwell(RB-Eagles) in week four, Gainwell had three carries for 31 yards and a touchdown, while also garnering six catches(on eight targets) for an additional 58 yards. Although he has only had 19 carries in four games, he now has nine catches(on twelve targets) for 9o yards over the last two games.
Despite the fact that Gainwell has played in less than 40 percent of the team’s snaps in all four games, he is starting to build a flex role in PPR formats. He is now averaging 11.7 fantasy points per game on the season. Although it remains uncertain as to what the Eagles’ backfield touch share will be moving forward, Gainwell should be picked up in most fantasy leagues for his upside alone.
Fake Outs:
Embed from Getty ImagesRandall Cobb(WR-Packers) Cobb had more targets(6) than he had had in the first three games combined(5). On the day, Cobb finished with five catches(on the six targets) for 69 yards and two touchdowns. Despite the increased production, Cobb only played in 46 percent of the snaps.
Fellow wide receiver Marques Valdes-Scantling sat out the week four game with a hamstring injury and is currently on IR. Although it’s possible that Cobb continues to see increased targets in MVS’s absence, it will be almost impossible to maintain the same elite efficiency while playing reduced snaps.
Embed from Getty ImagesC.J. Uzomah (Bengals-TE) Uzomah had an eerily similar stat line to Cobb in week four. Uzomah had 5 catches(on six targets) for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Just like Cobb, the six targets were more than his previous season total of five. The 19 percent target share is encouraging, but unlikely to be maintained.
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Heading into week five, it is likely that WR Tee Higgins returns to the lineup after missing two games with a shoulder injury. He is supposed to return to practice on Wednesday and appears to be on track to play the Packers on Sunday. In 2020, the Bengals threw to the TE only 11 percent of the time. In addition to Higgins taking some targets away, Joe Burrow has never been one to heavily target his TEs. Look for this to be a one-off performance for Uzomah.
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