Week 5: WR Expert Consensus Rankings Between 8 Sources

Welp. I definitely forgot to write my Week 4 article. My bad…. Time for Week 5’s article!

Yesterday, my husband and I took my mother-in-law to the Philbrook Museum of Art in Tulsa, OK. Though the museum is small, some stunning works of art are on display: an original Picasso, a Kehinde Wiley (the artist who created the stunning Obama White House paintings), and other paintings and sculptures that each told intangible stories yet were convincing and understandable. Outside the museum, there are luscious gardens filled with over 2,200 different plants. The main garden was prepared for a wedding that evening and in that same spot, we watched a couple get engaged! 

I bring this up because the NFL season has given us a small sample size, but there is plenty we can build from and provide in-depth analysis for. The Philbrook is no Louvre, but that does not mean it cannot teach us something. These rankings will reflect what our analysts have learned over the short few weeks of the NFL season.

Check out my first in-season article to understand this season-long study: Week 3: WR Expert Consensus Rankings Between 8 Sources.

^Already played on TNF (Thursday Night Football)

WR1 TIER

PLAYER	OPP	RANK	Average	Mode	High/Low	Range
CeeDee Lamb	@PIT	1	1.5	1	1-4	3
Nico Collins	BUF	2	2.0	2	1-3	2
Justin Jefferson	NYJ	3	3.3	3	2-5	3
Ja’Marr Chase	BAL	4	4.1	4	3-6	3
Jayden Reed	@LAR	5	6.0	8	3-8	5
DK Metcalf	NYG	6	6.1	6	5-8	3
Chris Godwin^	@ATL	7	8.0	7	7-9	2
Deebo Samuel	ARI	8	8.1	#N/A	4-13	9
Marvin Harrison Jr.	@SF	9	8.3	7	6-11	5
Mike Evans^	@ATL	10	9.6	10	8-11	3
Diontae Johnson	@CHI	11	11.1	13	5-15	10
Drake London^	TB	12	11.6	11	10-14	4

UPSIDE

Jayden Reed is everything the Packers need and more. He is clearly Jordan Love’s favorite target and with both Watson and Doubs out, Reed will play out of his mind against a Rams defense that allowed Jauan Jennings 11 rec, 175 yds, 3 TDs; Marvin Harrison Jr 4 rec, 130 yds, 2 TDs, and Jameson Williams 5 rec, 121 yds, and 1 TD. Fun Fact: The last five regular season games where Love and Reed played together, Reed has exactly 500 yds and 5 TDs. 

DOWNSIDE

Diontae Johnson has been incredible the past two weeks. He’s been the player we’ve dreamed of him being. However, besides Nico Collins big game against the Bears in Week 2, no other WR has scored a TD against this Bears secondary. Only two WRs have more than four receptions versus the Bears and Collins is one of those two. I think you lower your expectations for Diontae this week.

WR2 TIER

PLAYER	OPP	RANK	Average	Mode	High/Low	Range
Chris Olave	@KC	13	14.0	15	12-15	3
Stefon Diggs	BUF	14	14.4	16	10-17	7
Garrett Wilson	@MIN	15	14.4	13	11-19	8
Amari Cooper	@WAS	16	16.0	14	12-20	8
George Pickens	DAL	17	17.1	18	11-25	14
Brandon Aiyuk	ARI	18	18.3	17	14-24	10
DJ Moore	CAR	19	18.5	20	12-22	10
Terry McLaurin	CLE	20	20.3	22	15-22	7
Michael Pittman Jr.	@JAX	21	21.1	19	17-25	8
Brian Thomas	IND	22	21.3	23	14-25	11
Zay Flowers	@CIN	23	22.6	21	16-31	15
Tyreek Hill	@NE	24	23.9	21	18-30	12

UPSIDE

Brian Thomas is slowly becoming a guy I want on all of my fantasy teams. Trevor Lawrence is playing like Derek Carr has most of his career and still, Thomas is shining through. The Colts defense has allowed 3 100-yard games to WRs this year, including to fellow rookie WR Rome Odunze. If Jordan Love had played against the Colts instead of Malik Willis, I think there would have been another 100-yard game from a Packers receiver. I think BTJ gets his first 100-yard game this week.

DOWNSIDE

Garrett Wilson has not found a connection with Aaron Rodgers yet. This is why you see Allan Lazard breaking out: Rodgers and Wilson are not on the same page. Though Wilson has 34 targets in 4 games, he has only caught 20 of them for 191 yards and a TD. While the Vikings defense has been optimal for WRs this season, I don’t think he will produce the way we want him to.

WR3 TIER

PLAYER	OPP	RANK	Average	Mode	High/Low	Range
Tee Higgins	BAL	25	24.0	21	21-28	7
Dontayvion Wicks	@LAR	26	25.5	#N/A	19-32	13
Rashid Shaheed	@KC	27	27.8	30	23-33	10
Christian Kirk	IND	28	27.9	26	25-30	5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	NYG	29	28.0	27	24-34	10
Xavier Worthy	NO	30	28.9	29	25-36	11
Wan’Dale Robinson	SEA	31	29.4	31	22-34	12
Courtland Sutton	LV	32	31.1	32	28-34	6
Josh Downs	@JAX	33	32.6	32	27-38	11
Darnell Mooney^	TB	34	34.4	33	32-39	7
Jerry Jeudy	@WAS	35	34.9	35	32-37	5
Jakobi Meyers	@DEN	36	38.3	#N/A	30-44	14

UPSIDE

Wan’Dale Robinson is having a better season than the aforementioned Garrett Wilson. Not by much, but it’s true. He faces a Seattle defense that has played against the Patriots, Broncos, a Tua-less Dolphins, and last week the Lions. While they’ve only allowed two WRs to get above 50 receiving yards all season, you have to look at their schedule and decide if you think they’re legit or played against some of the worst passing attacks in the league. With Nabers and Singletary out for the Giants, I expect Robinson to capitalize on this and continue his pace of 9.5 targets a game.

DOWNSIDE

Jakobi Meyers will face Patrick Surtain since Davante Adams is out. Wilson, Metcalf, and Evans combined for 7 rec, 87 yds, and 0 TDs against him. That’s all I need to say.

WR4 TIER

PLAYER	OPP	RANK	Average	Mode	High/Low	Range
Xavier Legette	@CHI	37	38.4	40	34-42	8
Tutu Atwell	GB	38	39.1	40	31-43	12
Jordan Addison	NYJ	39	39.4	38	33-47	14
Jauan Jennings	ARI	40	39.4	#N/A	35-43	8
Keenan Allen	CAR	41	39.4	36	36-44	8
Tank Dell	BUF	42	40.8	35	34-55	21
Jordan Whittington	GB	43	42.8	46	36-49	13
Jaylen Waddle	@NE	44	42.9	40	38-47	9
Tyler Lockett	NYG	45	43.1	44	39-47	8
Rome Odunze	CAR	46	43.3	44	37-48	11
Tre Tucker	@DEN	47	47.1	45	41-52	11
Keon Coleman	@HOU	48	47.4	48	44-53	9

UPSIDE

Besides the Texans game against the the Bears, the Texans defense have given up a 80+ yd WR performance in each game. Keon Coleman looks to continue this trend with Khalil Shakir sidelined this week. Josh Allen is playing like the league’s MVP and will make plays happen for his WRs. 

DOWNSIDE

Poor Tank Dell. He was SO MUCH FUN to watch last year. Right now, he only has 9 rec for 99 yds with no TDs. He did not play in Week 4 due to a chest injury, but you will want to keep him on your bench against this Buffalo secondary. Christian Kirk is the only WR to get above 50 yards against them this season. Tank clearly WR3 for the Texans and will not fair well this week.

WR5 TIER

PLAYER	OPP	RANK	Average	Mode	High/Low	Range
Allen Lazard	@MIN	49	47.5	50	42-51	9
Jalen Tolbert	@PIT	50	49.3	51	42-55	13
Michael Wilson	@SF	51	50.1	51	47-52	5
Demarcus Robinson	GB	52	51.6	52	44-55	11
Mike Williams	@MIN	53	52.0	54	46-55	9
Gabe Davis	IND	54	54.4	#N/A	46-60	14
Greg Dortch	@SF	55	55.0	56	50-60	10
Curtis Samuel	@HOU	56	55.8	57	49-63	14
Ray-Ray McCloud^	TB	57	56.0	#N/A	52-63	11
Andrei Iosivas	BAL	58	58.4	58	56-64	8
Rashod Bateman	@CIN	59	59.4	60	57-61	4
Darius Slayton	@SEA	60	59.7	59	48-71	23

UPSIDE

The Steelers defense has let a WR gain 80+ yds in 3 of their 4 games and the way the Cowboys running game is going, Jalen Tolbert needs to step up. Yes, CeeDee Lamb and TE Ferguson are Dak’s main targets, but Brandin Cooks is now on IR. Tolbert has already been on the field for 3-WR sets prior to Cooks’ injury, so this is his chance to make a splash out on the field.

DOWNSIDE

Rashod Bateman is not going to produce against the Bengals not only because of his own downfalls as a 2021 first-round pick, but the Ravens have thrown fewer than 20 passes in each of the past two weeks. Derrick Henry is playing lights out and Flowers, Likely, and Hill are all ahead of Bateman in the receiving pecking order. Leave him on your bench.

Thank you for reading this article!

Always hit me up on Twitter (X) @topherk44 with any questions/comments/concerns/compliments/credit card information I can use for an internation adventure!

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