Week 7 Fantasy Football: Breakout or Fake Out
Heading into week seven, fantasy owners are facing the difficult challenge of fielding a competitive team with six teams on bye and a multitude of injuries. Identifying a couple of players that are ready to “break out” can be the diffidence between contending and bringing home fantasy gold.
Week Six Review:
Week six was another week of mixed success. Darrel Williams, PPR RB8 in week six, was my best call on the day. He had 24 total touches for 89 combined yards and two touchdowns.
The other three “break outs” had very modest results. These three players and their final stat line were: 1) Devontae Booker( 16 total touches for 69 yards-including four catches); 2) Rondale Moore( 6 touches for 26 yards-including three catches); and 3) Kadarius Toney(three catches for 36 yards).
My “fake outs” included: 1) Jameis Winston( on bye for week six); and 2 David Njoku(1 catch for six yards in week six). Njoku appears to be in line for a tough game in week seven vs the Broncos, with Kareem Hunt placed on IR( calf) and both Nick Chubb(also calf) and Baker Mayfield(shoulder) already ruled out for the game. Odell Beckham is also battling a shoulder injury and missed Tuesday’s practice, so it could be a completely out-of-sync offense come Thursday night.
Breakouts:
Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa(QB Dolphins) in week six, Tagovailoa completed 33 of 47 pass attempts for 329 yards and two touchdowns, while adding three rushes for 22 yards. This monster game came after Tua had missed the previous three games with broken ribs.
Although the verdict is still out on how good Tagovailoa will be long-term, he has another favorable matchup in week seven. He takes on a Falcons’ defense that gives up the tenth-most fantasy points to QBs. Tua should be viewed as a low-end QB1 in week seven.
Ricky Seals-Jones(TE-Washington Football Team) the window for Seals-Jones to be a “break out” is a rather short one, directly connected with the return of Logan Thomas. Thomas is expected to be out for at least three more games with a hamstring injury.
Over the last two weeks, Seals-Jones has nine catches(on fifteen targets) for 99 yards and a touchdown. With injuries to both Thomas and Curtis Samuel, Seals-Jones has functioned as Washington’s number two receiving threat. In week seven, he should be viewed as a low end TE1 option.
T.Y. Hilton(WR-Colts) after missing the first five games with a neck injury, Hilton returned in week six against the Texans. He had four catches(on four targets) for 80 yards, before being ruled out in the fourth quarter with a quad injury.
As the attached article indicates, he was “doing fine” on Monday. That being said, injuries such as this are worth monitoring as the extent of the injury is not really known until a few days after it happened.
After getting off to a slow start in 2020( only one double-digit PPR game through the first ten), Hilton averaged 17 fantasy points per game over the last six. With Campbell’s injury, Hilton’s target share should be safe moving forward. Even if he sits out in week seven, he should be viewed as at least a WR3 moving forward.
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Fake Outs:
Embed from Getty ImagesKenyan Drake(RB-Raiders) in week six, Drake had 73 total yards and two touchdowns at the Broncos. While those are very solid numbers, Drake had all of this production on only six touches. Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs had 17 touches for 82 total yards and a TD.
Although Drake looked explosive on the limited touches he had, the key question is simply what does he have to do to be more involved in the offense. Over the two previous games, he had had a total of three touches combined. With such limited usage, Drake is best viewed as a desperation flex. Unfortunately, this is true even this week with fantasy owners struggling to field a complete lineup.
Mark Ingram(RB-Texans) in week six, Ingram had 18 carries for 73 yards and zero touchdowns, while adding two catches for eight yards. Although he has had at least 14 carries in four of the six games he has played, this is only the second game in which he has rushed for more than 41 yards.
In fantasy football, the opportunity is one-half of what it takes to be a break-out. The other half is talent. Going on 32, Ingram having talent is a thing of the past. He is averaging a putrid 3.3 yards per carry, on a historically bad offense. In addition, he only has four catches for six yards on the season. Ingram is best left on the waiver wire.
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