Week 9 Better Than Start-Sit/Smash, Cash or Trash
There are no words I can offer to express my profound sorrow for last week’s absolute disaster of picks. It was remarkable in its complete wrongness (is that a word). There is no sense in reminiscing on Clint Eastwood. Pretty much, it was all ugly. I will try harder. I will do better. Thanks for coming back.
Now, we move on to Week 9. Four teams are on a bye this week: the Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, and the San Francisco 49ers.
It is also worth mentioning that the NFL trade deadline is over, Josh Dobbs is now a Minnesota Vikings, and Chase Young joins the already stacked San Francisco 48ers defense. Also, remember the Miami Dolphins are playing the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany. So many viable Smash options will exist in the very early morning hours. Set your lineups accordingly.
Smash Plays
Quarterback Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles -3.0, 46.6 o/u
In ordinary times, playing Prescott would always be a Smash play. It definitely was last week when he went off on the Los Angeles Rams for 304 passing yards, four touchdowns, one interception, and 19 rushing yards.
Last week was only his second time this season for throwing multiple touchdowns. Week 8 was the only time he has thrown for over 300 yards this year. And now he gets a generous Philadelphia Eagles secondary.
The Eagles secondary did add Kevin Byard. Still, Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell threw for 397 yards and four touchdowns against them last week.
Prescott is prone to mistakes but has played well against the Eagles. Last season (with what some may call a superior secondary), Prescott threw for 295 yards in Philly and 347 at home against the Eagles. He had five touchdowns on the road and three at home with an interception.
Divisional games are notoriously hard to script, but this seems like the most likely outcome will be a Smash for Prescott (and Brandin Cooks/CeeDee Lamb combo).
Running Back, Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 v Buffalo Bills, 49.5 o/u
This game is the Sunday Night Matchup.
Although Cincinnati has four running backs, Mixon is one of the few in the league who is not in a timeshare. Mixon is commanding 74.16% of the offensive snaps. The next closest running back is Trayveon Williams, with 17.53% of the offensive snaps.
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Mixon finished the game averaging 5.4 yards per carry for 87 rushing yards. He was also targeted three times for three receptions for 23 receiving yards.
The Bills defense is giving up the eighth most rushing yards (93.1), the fourth most receiving yards (48.6), and the 12th most fantasy points (16.1) per game to the running back position.
Keep a heads up on Mixon’s condition. He currently has a Questionable designation with a chest injury.
Wide Receiver, Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens -6.0 v Seattle Seahawks, 44.5 o/u
If I played with my heart, Flowers would be dead to me. In an obvious Smash spot last week, Flowers’ seven targets resulted in five catches for 19 yards. It was borderline malpractice (on one of our parts, and since I don’t like pointing fingers, I won’t say who).
It was just inexplicable. Mark Andrews finished with 40 yards, and (gasp and awe) Justice Hill finished with 40 receiving yards. WTF!
But I am doubling down on this Smash suggestion because Flowers has the talent and is WR1 in this offense. And maybe most importantly, the Seahawks run zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league (82%). In Flowers’s short NFL career, 35-of-44 receptions, 400-of-461 receiving yards, and his only touchdown have come against zone coverage.
This will be my theme song if it happens again ZAY!
Tight End, Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, 49.5 o/u
Again, I will reiterate my disdain for trying to predict the outcome in the tight-end position. Tight ends not named Taylor Swift’s perhaps boyfriend, T.J. Hockenson, Andrews, or Sam LaPorta have the widest range of outcomes. Take George Kittle. Kittle is currently TE5 in standard leagues. His range of outcomes in eight weeks has been from 0.1 fantasy points to 24.7! Most tight ends are match-up dependent, which brings us to this little article.
Dawson Knox is on IR after wrist surgery. In his absence, Kincaid collected seven targets, five receptions, 65 yards, and a touchdown last week. This week, Kincaid gets the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed the sixth-most yards (64.3) and the most fantasy points per game (8.7) to the tight end position.
Cash Plays
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots -3.5, 40.5 o/u
It isn’t whether they win or lose but how many fantasy points you can get me. Last week, it was 32 fantasy points from Howell. He is currently QB8 with five games over 18 fantasy points. Howell’s lowest accumulation was in Week 3 against the Buffalo Bills when he only had 4.6. Since then, it has been double-digit points.
The New England Patriots have given up 22.8, 25.3, and 15.7 fantasy points in three of their last four games (didn’t count the Las Vegas Raiders game because, well, it was the Raiders and Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer both played). The 25.3 points were to Josh Allen in New England, and the 15.7 was surrendered to Derek Carr when the New Orleans Saints dismantled the Patriots in New England.
This is a Cash call, not a Smash because I know Bill Belichick hates my fantasy team and will do anything to stop it.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers @ Indianapolis Colts -2.5, 44.5 o/u
Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown is now calling plays in Carolina. Last week, in their victory over the Houston Texans, he called 31 pass plays and 24 rushing plays. That, unfortunately, did not help Hubbard’s stat line, as he averaged 1.9 yards per carry.
The Panthers’ offensive line is a mess. But Hubbard is the clear RB1 in this backfield. Last week, he was on the field for 67.2% of the offensive snaps compared to Miles Sanders (spoiler alert, you will see his name again), who was on the field for 17.9% of the offensive snaps. Hubbard had three rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, compared to Sanders’s zero. Hubbard had 15 rushing attempts to Sanders’s two.
And then there is the Colts, who are giving up 94.0 average rushing yards per game, along with 1.4 rushing touchdowns. The Colts have also surrendered 20.2 fantasy points per game to the position. Last week, Alvin Kamara collected 20.3 fantasy points, and the week prior, Jerome Ford ran for 15.7 fantasy points (both standard leagues) versus the Colts.
It will be interesting to see what the new playcaller does in Carolina. Hopefully, it includes feeding Hubbard the ball ad nauseum.
Wide Receiver, Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints -8.5 v Chicago Bears, 41.5 o/u
Shaheed has scored a touchdown in two of his last three games. That includes last week, where he added 153 yards on three receptions. The Bears are giving up 20.6 fantasy points per game and 156.5 receiving yards.
In Razzball’s slot vs. wide chart, 70% of the fantasy points the Bears give up go out wide. Shaheed scored 77% of his fantasy points out wide, the best for any Saints receiver.
Tight End, Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints -8.5 v Chicago Bears, 41.5 o/u
I am going to mention Hill because it would be diligent not to. Hill is currently TE6 in standard leagues. Last week, he finished with 21.5 fantasy points in standard leagues. Hill ran 12 routes for only one target, but he had two passing attempts with one completion for 44 yards. He also had nine carries for 63 yards and two touchdowns.
Hill did this even though the other tight end, Juwan Johnson, was on the field and ran three more routes than Hill.
Is this sustainable? Probably not. And Hill’s range of outcomes is mind-numbingly inconsistent. But they are playing Chicago, who is allowing 341 total yards per game (23rd ranked). Hill is worth mentioning if you can live with the inconsistencies.
Trash Plays
Quarterback Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens -6.0, 44.5 o/u
Smith went into his bye week scoring 8.2 fantasy points. He hasn’t scored more than 16 fantasy points in the three games since the bye week.
Smith is going cross-country to play the Ravens, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position(12). The Ravens have only given up six passing touchdowns, have collected eight interceptions, and quarterbacks have a league-low 71.4 passer rating against them.
Running Back, Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers v Indianapolis Colts -2.5, 44.5 o/u
I’m not sure what to say that hasn’t already been said. Except Sanders is averaging 3.0 yards per carry. He has two fumbles. His longest run has been for 15 yards, and he was out carried 15-2 in the Panthers’ last game.
You have to believe that the Panthers will want some kind of return on the investment, but we will have to wait and see how that manifests itself.
Wide Receiver, Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 @ New York Jets 40.5 o/u
Presumably, Palmer left last week with a knee injury, which hopefully explains his three receptions in a 24-yard game. However, this week, even if he comes in healthy (and it is a Monday Night game), buyer beware. Palmer runs 66% of his routes out wide. Say hello to my little friend.
In addition to allowing the fewest yards (109.0), touchdowns (1), and fantasy points (9.9) to the wide receiver position, the Jets have more interceptions (4) against the deep pass than completions (3).
I say no, what say you?
Tight End, Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers -3.5, 38.5 o/u
There are so many things not to like. The Rams are a road underdog against a mediocre Packers team whose quarterback has lost his way. Matthew Stafford is injured, and since the return of Cooper Kupp, Higbee has averaged 4.8 fantasy points per game.
Kids, just say no.
“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: It is the courage to continue that counts.”
– Winston Churchill
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