2019 Fantasy Football Week 3 Buy Low/Sell High #FantasyFootball

Buy Low

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Quarterback

Baker Mayfield – Mayfield is producing passing yards (currently 8^th in the league), but has a touchdown rate of just 2.7%. The Browns offense is full of weapons, and I fully expect Mayfield to bounce back this year. I have no problem leaving him in my top 12 QBs for the rest of the season.

Kyler Murray – This isn’t exactly a buy low opportunity, but it could be your last chance to simply buy Kyler Murray. He’s averaged over 325 passing yards per game in sub-par matchups. He has just 2 touchdowns (2.1% touchdown rate) this year and has hardly run the ball. I expect more rushing attempts and touchdowns in the upcoming weeks and would be buying him wherever I can. There is very real top-5 upside with Murray.

Also buy: Matt Ryan

Running Back

David Montgomery – Since it was a prime time game and the first game of the season, most people remember Montgomery receiving limited touches against Green Bay in week one and still can picture Mike Davis out-touching Montgomery in key parts of the game. However, in week two, Montgomery saw 19 touches compared to three for Davis. Montgomery saw his snap share increase from 38% to 44%, but more importantly, we saw Davis’ snap share drop from 56% to 25%. With discussion from the Bears’ week two game focused on the officiating, I’ll try to sneak an offer to the Montgomery owner before next week.

Tight End

George Kittle – Kittle is currently the TE13 on the season, but has run into some bad luck. According to PFF’s Scott Barrett, Kittle has had 17 fantasy points called back due to penalty. Add those points, and Kittle becomes the TE3 behind Mark Andrews and Evan Engram and above Travis Kelce. His target share is almost identical to last year and his overall production through two weeks is similar to last year as well (according to ESPN’s Matthew Berry). There is no reason to worry about Kittle. If you find a panicking Kittle owner, send a competitive, but low offer.

Buy, but temper expectations

JuJu Smith-Schuster – Smith-Schuster is still a high-end WR2 and maybe even a low-end WR1. I’ve seen a lot of negativity toward Smith-Schuster due to Ben Roethlisberger’s injury, and it may not be warranted.

Alvin Kamara – Kamara is in the same boat as Smith-Schuster, but Drew Brees will likely return before the fantasy playoffs. Kamara may struggle as Teddy Bridgewater (or Taysom Hill) try to run the Saints offense, but even a struggling Kamara is a low-end RB2.

Sell High

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Running Back

Austin Ekeler (If you believe Melvin Gordon returns) – Let me start by saying this. I own Austin Ekeler in 100% of my non-dynasty leagues (yes, really), and I’m not actively looking to sell. I personally believe the Chargers continue with Ekeler as their top running back even if Melvin Gordon returns (I have no sources, it’s just a hunch). I would assume that even if Gordon returns, he’d take more of Justin Jackson’s role, and Ekeler would remain the top running back.

However, IF you believe Gordon returns this season, this is the perfect time to sell Ekeler. Ekeler is the RB1 this season and is averaging an absurd 31.4 fantasy points per game. He is very easy to sell right now for a top WR, TE or a pair of RB2s.

Still selling: Derrick Henry, Marlon Mack

Wide Receiver

Instead of highlighting one receiver, I’ll list a few that are current top 21 wide receivers who I’d actively look to sell and what I’d expect in return.

Sammy Watkins (WR1) – Current Value: Low-end WR1, High-end WR2 – WR2 when Tyreek Hill returns

John Ross III (WR2) – Current Value: High-variance WR3

Emmanuel Sanders (WR3) – Current Value: Solid WR3

Marquise Brown (WR4) – Current Value: High-variance WR3

DJ Chark (WR6) – Current Value: WR3/4

Terry McLaurin (WR13) – Current Value: WR3/4

Demarcus Robinson (WR21) – Current Value: High variance WR3/4 – WR6/7 when Tyreek Hill returns

Tight End

Mark Andrews – I believe in Andrews as a talent and as a starting tight end this year, but I’d be shocked if he finished as the clear-cut TE1 this season. Andrews has 50 fantasy points this season. Evan Engram (39.4 fantasy points) and Travis Kelce (35.5 fantasy points) are TE2 and TE3 respectively, showing the size of the gap between Andrews and the rest of the league. Andrews is on pace for 400 fantasy points, 1760 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. His 94% catch rate is unsustainable, as is the overall efficiency of the Ravens offense. Andrews is one of my favorite dynasty tight ends and is likely a top 6-8 tight end this year, but if you can sell him for someone like George Kittle, I’d make the deal.

Also sell: Will Dissly – Dissly is the TE10 this season on just seven targets..SEVEN!

Jason Witten – Witten is the TE12 on just eight targets.

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