What If I’m Wrong? Missing On These Rookies Would Suck

As a dynasty fantasy football content creator (or “fanalyst,” as I like to sometimes say), there is an expectation I do some rookie content. I’ve never fancied myself a “rookie expert” the way some other creators are. I watch film, but I’m not a “grinder.” I research data and analytics, but I’m not a “my model says…” person.

I see my job as synthesizing information and research about rookies and producing very fantasy-specific content. Part of that content is pre-draft rankings and analysis.

While yes, “the NFL will tell us what they think” and “draft capital is king,” I find the process of creating pre-draft content helpful for me, and I find the results of that process helpful for readers/listeners/viewers.

What if I’m wrong? But like any other fanalyst, I’m going to be wrong sometimes. That’s what this article is about. I will offer specific examples of rookies I might be wrong about, and what being wrong on each might mean.

In Part 1, I’ll discuss the misses that would be real bummers.

Players I’d Be Disappointed To Be Wrong About

These are players I wouldn’t say I’m “worried” I’m wrong about. I’d say these are players I could plausibly get wrong, and being wrong about them would more likely cause me to re-think parts of my process than being wrong on some others would.

Tyjae Spears – RB

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One of the first rookie profiles I did this year was Tyjae Spears. I need a t-shirt that says, “I liked Spears Before the Cotton Bowl.” As he crushed every step of the pre-draft process and folks I trust gave him praise, confirming what I saw, he rose up my ranks. When I’m writing this, I have him as my RB4 – at the top of a tightly-packed tier of running backs who are very “draft capital and landing spot dependent.”

While not without flaws, Spears is explosive, agile, and has excellent vision. He is also an underrated receiver. I think he can be a 1A or 1B in the way a Tony Pollard or D’Andre Swift (if he could gain coaches’ trust with better play) can be. I believe Spears can handle about 15-18 touches if those are planned well, with a good proportion “in space,” as we like to say. He could very well get day 2 draft capital, at which point he’d easily be an early 2nd round pick in superflex rookie drafts.

What if I’m wrong? It would mean I didn’t properly account for some concerns we should have for Spears: size, Group of 5 competition, age, and at least one (if not two) major knee injuries that could take him completely off some NFL teams’ boards. The NFL Draft and Spears’ first year or two in the league will tell me how many and which of these factors, and how wrong I got things.

Quentin Johnston – WR

If Spears was one of my first rookie profiles and a player I’m seemingly above consensus on, Johnston was (likely) my last one and a player I’m apparently lower than consensus on. For a long time, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Johnston was a 1st round superflex rookie draft pick. When Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kayshon Boutte had less-than-ideal results in 2022, Johnston was in the mix for WR1 and an even higher rookie draft ADP.

He’s still in that conversation for many people, but when I looked into him further, I did not like much of what I saw.

Johnston has inconsistencies plaguing his game, from hands to body catching, to physicality, to (seemingly) effort. Because of that “playing smaller than his size” and his YAC ability, I actually think he’d be better as a big slot (or a “move piece”) than a true outside receiver, but I doubt he will be deployed that way before we get more boom than bust.

Furthermore, when your claim to fame is size and speed, and you turn out shorter, lighter, and slower than expected, it’s not a great look. I can’t put faith in Johnston sufficiently refining his game to stay on the field enough to approach the high ceiling he appears to have.

That ceiling still has him as my WR4 at the moment, toward the bottom of a tier of WR2-5, but I’m lower than consensus and “out at cost” if he’s a late-1st in superflex rookie drafts.

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What if I’m wrong? It would be two years in a row that I was “out at cost” on a big, athletic, but unrefined wide receiver — 2022 was Christian Watson (though I was probably lower than consensus on George Pickens and Treylon Burks, too). Yes, Johnston and Watson are not the same as prospects, but Watson produced earlier than I expected, and his peripherals show a high ceiling. Is there something to glean if I feel I’ve gotten both big/athletic/raw/bad hands guys wrong? I’d have to look into that.

Most analytical analyses like Johnston more than the generally film-based evaluations do. Would it mean I need to lean more into the predictive power of analytics? Possibly. I’m squarely in the middle of the spectrum and use any and all info I can, but would this be a case where the “film bro” part of me failed me by constructing a narrative of the player not developing? Is this a “trust the talent” situation? Is there more talent there than I see when I focus on the flaws? Time would tell.

Darnell Washington – TE

I am notoriously (to the extent anyone knows me at all) connected to Jelani Woods, for better or for worse. I was impressed with and touting Woods even before his impressive 2022 NFL Combine performance. The jury is still out on whether Woods will be a true “hit,” but he flashed some promising signs in his rookie year.

When I first looked into Darnell Washington, another rookie I profiled here, I thought, “What if Jelani Woods could already block and had even better hands? You’d have Darnell Washington.”

I have continued to see the glass half-full and have him currently ranked as my TE2 at the top of a tier that includes TE2-5. If I’m spending the requisite draft capital (in a tight end premium league) to get Washington, who plays a position with a history of not being a value play as rookies, give me a big ceiling, high-upside guy. As I said on the Fantasy Coaches podcast, don’t give me vanilla; give me rocky road or peanut butter fudge.

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I’m above consensus, though, and it’s admittedly a choice to lean into the positive part of Washington’s wide range of outcomes. Where some see a third tackle who will primarily be a blocker and might leak out for the occasional route, I see a super-sized, uber-athletic specimen with underrated hands and enough of a route-running foundation to build on. Washington could be a real problem for defenses and a legitimate red zone threat.

What if I’m wrong? This one would likely be an easy answer: I leaned too far into the upside; I got the “projection vs. production” balance wrong for this particular prospect. Where I might have tempered expectations, I bet on the ceiling outcome to gain a positional advantage from the draft capital expended.

I do believe his pro-ready blocking ability will slow his development as a fantasy producer, and that could make me look more wrong early than I really am. So, as with many tight ends, the verdict on this one might take a while.

Honorable Mention: Marvin Mims – WR (above consensus)

Next time: In part 2, I’ll discuss players I won’t mind being wrong about. Thanks for reading!

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