What If I’m Wrong? Pt. 2: Big Truss (the Process)
As a dynasty fantasy football content creator (or “fanalyst” as I like to sometimes say), there is an expectation I do some rookie content. I’ve never fancied myself a “rookie expert” the way some other creators are. I watch film, but I’m not a “grinder.” I research data and analytics, but I’m not a “my model says…” person.
I see my job as synthesizing information and research about rookies and producing very fantasy-specific content. Part of that content is pre-draft rankings and analysis.
While yes, “the NFL will tell us what they think” and “draft capital is king,” I find the process of creating pre-draft content helpful for me, and I find the results of that process helpful for readers/listeners/viewers.
What if I’m wrong? But like any other fanalyst, I’m going to be wrong sometimes. That’s what this article is about. I’m going to offer specific examples of rookies I might be wrong about and what being wrong on each might mean.
In Part 1, I discussed the misses that would be real bummers. In this article, I will discuss players I won’t mind missing on.
Players I’m OK Being Wrong About
I’m not too stubborn to reflect on every case of being wrong to see where my process might have been flawed, but these are players who I don’t mind being wrong about because I feel very strongly I made the right call for one reason or another, and it’s the type of call I think I’d make “99 times out of 100.”
Devon Achane – RB
Size matters. And Devon Achane is 5’8″ and, more importantly, weighed in at 188 at the combine. We don’t simply say, “Small RBs can’t produce in fantasy,” but it is pretty accurate to say, “They don’t produce in fantasy.” And while there may not be a direct correlation between size and fantasy production, there certainly is an indirect chain of causation.
Smaller players don’t get draft capital, draft capital influences opportunity, and opportunity is necessary for fantasy points. Or, at the very least, regardless of draft capital, NFL coaches don’t give smaller players the role/opportunity/volume necessary to be very impactful in fantasy, even if the player is efficient with those touches.
Pick whatever fun stat you want about smaller running backs and their (lack of) fantasy success; there are many. I’ll give you a few examples. While I often disagree with DLF’s Addison Hayes, he gives you one good such stat in this video. My friend John Laub gives you another here. Rising running back evaluation star Noah Hills had a good one, too, in this article about Jahmyr Gibbs.
Achane has excellent speed and is probably a better runner (especially between the tackles) than his detractors give him credit for, but it’s not just about size translating to NFL opportunity; there are concerns about his college film. We already see issues with things like his contact balance, and as Dallas Hyder often says, it seems like he almost runs too fast because he doesn’t have complete control of his movements. Qualifiers like “for his size” on some of his good traits may not help much at the next level.
Achane can probably be an effective change-of-pace and pass-catching back — and even have some very good fantasy weeks — in the right situation, but that’s about it, and I currently have him ranked as RB11 in a tier of RB11-13, which is well below consensus. Achane is another “out at cost” guy for me.
What if I’m wrong? If Achane truly “hits,” he’ll be essentially an “outlier” (probably in the colloquial sense, not the technical one – don’t want to upset my stats nerd friends out there). He will have succeeded against heavy odds. He likely will have been almost impossibly efficient with his touches or somehow gotten the number of touches practically no one expects. I will fade sub-190 running backs, especially ones going in the second round of rookie drafts, just about every time. I’m more than willing to be wrong on Achane.
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Anthony Richardson – QB
Folks who follow my work and my tweets are probably sick of hearing me talk about “ARQB1” at this point. I wrote our rookie profile on him, and I’m even more enthusiastic about him since. I honestly have trouble understanding how, at this point in the timeline, after an honest and not superficial assessment of the player, and assuming good draft capital, someone could not have Anthony Richardson as the dynasty fantasy football QB1 in this class. As I said earlier this month:
I did a deep dive into this topic in this video, and you can find a very TL;DR version in this clip from Dynasty Saturday Night Five.
Richardson is a better, more accurate passer than people think when you really look closely (and chart passes). He is NOT raw; he is inexperienced. Richardson is a fast learner with very good instincts. He has a higher floor than people think because of his underrated passing and especially the rushing component he brings. To reach his very high ceiling, all he has to do is essentially be a league-average passer.
Finally, we have to remember that picks and players are first and foremost dynasty assets before they are anything else, and the value insulation/value retention and trade value/buying power you get with a young stud quarterback with high draft capital in a superflex league is hard to match. (In a 1QB league, you can lean into “Well, they don’t mean as much and aren’t as valuable, so I can take the swing on the high upside because a miss doesn’t hurt as much.”)
This principle (of seeing players and picks as assets above all else) is even more acutely true in drafts, especially rookie drafts. You are not drafting primarily to improve your team/roster; you are drafting to acquire assets. At the moment, Richardson has just about as good a chance of being an elite dynasty asset as Bijan Robinson, the consensus 1.01 in all formats.
I highly recommend this free essay from Jakob Sanderson’s Substack for another deep dive into the Richardson calculus.
What if I’m wrong? Of just about all my 2023 dynasty rookie takes, the idea that, as long as he gets good draft capital, Anthony Richardson should undquestionably be the QB1 in all formats — that he is the right bet to make, regardless of how he turns out as a player — is among the ones I’m most confident about. In other words, I’m very OK being wrong on this one because it’s just good process. Until the NFL and fantasy quarterback landscape shift to the point where a future Josh Allen/Cam Newton/Jalen Hurts/Justin Fields is no longer highly valued, there will be little reason for me to re-think ARQB1
Jalin Hyatt – WR
The simple version of this write-up would be “see above re: Achane.” But I’ll give you a bit more.
Going For 2 founder Geoff Lambert likes Jalin Hyatt, and there is a chance Hyatt hits, of course. For me, Hyatt is essentially a thin, speed-only prospect who lacks enough route running technique and physicality for me to be confident his game will translate well to the NFL.
Hyatt’s weekly production was wildily unpredictable and he is more of a best ball, boom/bust player – not a high rookie draft pick. That production was almost totally contained to when teammate Cedric Tillman was out with an injury, an dhis touches were highly schemed. Tennessee coaches got Hyatt running starts and free release with motion, mismatches, and essentially hiding him behind outside receivers whose feett were on the line of scrimmage. One of my favortie film people, Brandon Lejeune, points that out in this video and in this rookie profile with Jason DiRienzo.
Embed from Getty ImagesIn my opinion, Hyatt’s ceiling is Will Fuller briefly shaking hands with DeSean Jackson. His floor is almost zero. Given that he is going anywhere between the late 1st and mid-2nd round in most superflex mocks, he is another “out at cost” guy for me.
What if I’m wrong? This would simply be a matter of “sometiems you get some wrong” – not a proces issue. There are too many at least yellow flags when I’m studying Hyatt. He’s just not a guy I’m willing to bet on, and a guy I’m more than OK being wrong about. If Hyatt “beats me,” I’m fine. I’ll bet against this kind of prospect just about every time.
Honorable Mention: Nataniel “Tank” Dell (below consensus)
We’ll see what the NFL tells us in a few days. The “I was wrong” journey may begin… or not. Thanks for reading!
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