Wide Receivers Primed to Smash their ADP

June 25, 2021
224

Fantasy managers should always be chasing value. We want to find that sweet spot where good value meets great upside. There are plenty of candidates every year that could qualify for such a list. Most, unfortunately, will fail to realize the potential we bestowed upon them during the offseason. However, I believe these four wide receivers are primed to smash their ADP and bring some variation of league-winning upside to your lineups.

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We are constantly looking for those diamonds in the rough. Those players, that if everything goes right can bring immense value to your roster at a fraction of the cost you paid for them. Because ultimately, that’s what it’s all about. We’re all out here just trying to win some ‘ships, am I right? I believe the following four wide receivers have that kind of league-winning upside we’re always looking for. Right now, all four of these wide receivers present with good value, great upside, and with an excellent opportunity.

First, some ground rules. Values can be found all over your draft board. You can find excellent value in round five and all the way down until your draft is completed. These wide receivers all come with an ADP of 100 or greater right now and they’re all ranked WR40 or worse. All of these wide receivers however have the talent and the environment to provide immense value on their current rankings.

League Winning Wide Receivers

Devonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

Full disclosure, I’m breaking the rules right off the bat. Devonta Smith comes in as WR39 on FantasyPros with an ADP of 97, but there was no way I was leaving him off this list. There is no reason Smith is ranked this low. When I look at some of the names listed ahead of him, my head hurts. I cannot believe my eyes. Why are Corey Davis, Will Fuller, and Curtis Samuel ranked ahead of him?

I cannot explain how the first wide receiver to win the Heisman since Desmond Howard is ranked so low especially considering the situation he is walking into. If you have concerns about Jalen Hurts as a passer, that’s fine. I do too, but that doesn’t mean Hurts isn’t going to throw the ball. The former Crimson Tide receiver is set-up to command a very healthy target share right from the word go. There is just very little competition in Philadelphia vying for Hurts’ attention. Dallas Goedert will certainly gets his, but he’s really the only option to out-target Smith. However, it’s rare for a tight end to lead their team in targets. The smart money is on Smith garnering the majority of Hurts’ passes.

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When we’re looking for value plays, we’re not only looking for talented players that are going under-appreciated, but the situation needs to be right. Every breakout player needs opportunity. They need volume. The rookie receiver out of Alabama is going to be given both right away. And boy does he got the talent to go with it. You don’t win the first Heisman playing wide receiver since 1991 without a great deal of talent.

The last two years at Alabama, Smith racked up 185 catches, 3,112 yards, and 37 touchdowns. He scored a touchdown on every fifth catch. In the SEC. Against some of the best defenses and cornerbacks in the county. And he scored a touchdown on every fifth catch! I think we can safely assume the Heisman-winning rookie has the talent required to capitalize on the opportunity he’s going to be given in Philadelphia.

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I currently expect the Eagles to throw the ball around 35 times per game. This rate would have them around the middle of the league. I believe the Eagles will want to lean on their run-game to some extent to slow the game down for Hurts, but their defense will be a liability in some games. This will force Hurts to have to air it out. With that number of attempts, it becomes difficult to distribute them without Smith getting a very healthy number. I currently have Smith down for around 130 targets, which is just over a 23% target share. This would put him squarely in the WR2 range.

Smith is currently going off the board early in round eight, but I’m fine “reaching” for him at the end of the sixth or anytime in the seventh. He checks off all the boxes. He has a ton of talent and great opportunity.

Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars

This one is a little more difficult and we’re going to take a bit of a gamble here on Shenault. The reason it’s a gamble is there’s a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new quarterback, and they brought in a solid veteran wide receiver in Marvin Jones. Fantasy managers don’t really know what to expect as far as what the offense will look like or how the targets will be distributed.

Shenault is coming off the board at pick 111 and as the 43rd wide receiver. The rookie wide receiver looked good last year despite playing in sub-optimal conditions. He racked up 58 catches on 79 catches and turned them into 600 yards and five touchdowns. Shenault also chipped in 18 rushes for 91 yards. Shenault is a big-bodied receiver, weighing in at 220 pounds and measuring 6’2″.

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Chark and Jones are best lined up on the outside, which will allow Shenault to work in the slot. That’s a good thing for his fantasy prospects. Slot targets are worth 5.5% more than the traditional targets on the outside. That’s because the completion rate is much higher in the slot and receivers lined up in the slot score touchdowns at higher rates than those on the outside. More good news for Shenault’s 2021 prospects.

Jaguars coach Urban Meyer has a knack for getting his wide receivers open in space and the sophomore receiver is one of those open-field monsters that Meyer has turned into super-stars at the college level. This is what we’re banking on with Shenault.

Since the target hierarchy is uncertain it’s possible he could find himself as Lawrence’s favorite target. Early reports out of camp are that Shenault has been one of the most impressive players. Since the Jaguars do not have a capable tight end, could very quickly find himself as Lawrence’s safety valve and chain mover. In PPR-scoring formats, there’s a lot of value to be had in that role.

Shenault averaged a very healthy 5.1 yards after the catch. He also had the third-best broken tackle rate after the catch among wide receivers with 50 or more receptions. The point being, he’s a problem with the ball in his hands. Shenault is fully capable of making defenders miss and turning a small gain into a big one.

On top of the possibility of being the most targeted receiver in Jacksonville, Shenault is also likely to receive 20-25 carries in 2021. He received 18 carries last year as a rookie and turned them into 91 yards, which is a 5.1 yard per carry average. No matter what he does through the air, he is likely to provide fantasy managers with another 100 yards or so on the ground.

With the number of mouths in Jacksonville between Chark, Etienne, and Jones, Shenault’s upside is capped as a WR2, but when fantasy managers are able to select him way down in the ninth round at WR43, there’s still a lot of value and upside to be had.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

Mike Williams is a former top-10 draft pick with all the potential in the world, but at what point are we as fantasy managers supposed to give up on that potential? Well, for me, I’m not there yet. We’ve seen the four-year receiver string together glimpses. As a sophomore he scored 10 touchdowns on only 43 catches. Then in his third-year he went over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career on only 49 catches. A ridiculous 20.4 yard per catch average.

By the time Williams was drafted in Los Angeles, Philip Rivers didn’t have the arm strength to take advantage of his deep ball prowess. Fantasy managers constantly watched as Rivers would dump the ball off or throw it to possession king, Keenan Allen. Now, with Justin Herbert under center Mike Williams finally has the quarterback his game needs.

New offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has already stated he plans on using Mike Williams in the “X” role on offense, which should be music to fantasy managers ears. The loss of Hunter Henry will also open up some additional targets that could flow to Williams.

With defenses pre-occupied on Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams may be left with single coverage often. Herbert is likely more willing to throw the ball up to the former Clemson receiver up and let him go make a play. That’s when he’s at his best.

Mike Williams has deep-ball potential evidenced by his career 16.7 YPC and he’s got big touchdown upside with his 6’4″ and 220 pound frame.

The Chargers threw the ball over 625+ times last year, which means there’s plenty of volume to go around even after Allen and Ekeler. The biggest thing Williams needs to do is stay healthy. If he can do that, there’s no reason he can’t finish as a top-24 wide receiver in 2021.

It’s also worth mentioning the Chargers opted to not pick up his fifth-year option, so he is officially a free agent after this season. I usually don’t buy into the contract year piece, but Williams has a lot on the table this year. He’s currently being drafted as the WR52 and at pick #144. For a 12th round pick, fantasy managers can draft a wide receiver who was drafted in the top-10, has a 1,000-yard season and a 10-touchdown season under his belt who will also be catching passes from the Offensive Rookie of the Year. What’s not to love? There’s no risk.

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts

Not all rookies come into the NFL and dominate the way Justin Jefferson did. And that shouldn’t be the bar. Michael Pittman put up huge numbers as a senior at USC. He was a name that largely got forgotten about in the 2020 NFL draft however because of the elite talent at wide receiver last year. Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy garnered all the headlines. Pittman, while not quite on that level was drafted ahead of Shenault and right around Tee Higgins.

He struggled early with a foot injury and never really seemed to get comfortable as a rookie. Considering the circumstances around the NFL’s off-season last year, that shouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. He did however, record a very nice first playoff game, securing five targets for 90 yards against Buffalo. He also chipped in with an 11 yard carry.

Like Shenault, we haven’t really seen Pittman put his NFL talent on full display yet. In that regard, we’re left having to trust his draft pedigree and the prospect he was when he came into the league. What we can trust however, is his opportunity.

The Colts are significantly lacking at the receiver position. They drafted Pittman in the second-round with the intention he would become their primary receiver. TY Hilton doesn’t have the size most alpha receiver’s have and it limits how many targets he generally sees. Hilton is also on the wrong side of 30.

After that, there’s Jack Doyle who is even more on the wrong side of 30. There’s Zach Pascal where’s a journeyman receiver, nothing special. Parris Campbell cannot stay on the field. Michael Pittman can easily become the go-to receiver in this offense. And that’s what we’re looking for.

I know a lot of people are worried about Carson Wentz and it’s a legit concern. Fantasy managers need to remember the amount of injuries Philly had to deal with last year. His entire offensive line minus the center position missed time. Two of them never played at all. His entire receiver room missed time minus Greg Ward. His starting running back and both tight ends missed time. The three years prior to 2020, Wentz averaged 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He was on the verge of winning the MVP for crying out loud. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to put together a solid 2021 campaign. After all, he has more good seasons than bad and I doubt he completely forgot how to play quarterback in one season.

Like Williams, the price of admission is basically free of charge. He’s coming off the board at pick 108 and as the WR45. Pittman had 40 catches and 503 yards in 13 games. He only scored once. Over a 16-game season we’re only looking at a 50 catch, 620 yard and two touchdown rookie season. The guy that I keep going back to with Pittman is Courtland Sutton. He only had 42 catches for 704 yards, and four scores as a rookie. In his sophomore year, Sutton with minimal target competition (like what Pittman has) exploded for 72 catches, 1,112 yards, and six touchdowns. This is what we’re banking on.

When fantasy managers are getting down into round 11 and round 12, if they’re able to select the No. 1 receiver on any offense, it’s a major win. The only thing stopping Pittman from getting 125 targets is Michael Pittman. At Hilton’s age and his declining skillset, Hilton won’t be able to stop Pittman’s ascension. I’m all-in betting on a high second-round draft pick entering his sophomore season, for free. Especially with his target potential.

Don’t be Afraid to Chase Upside Late

With all four of these wide receivers, the price is incredibly cheap. There’s minimal risk when we’re talking about ninth and 12th rounders, but fantasy managers have to be enamored with the prospects all four of these receivers bring to the table. Outside of Mike Williams, they all have the potential of leading their teams in targets.

We often hear the phrase volume is king for running backs, but that exists for wide receivers too. How else does Allen Robinson finish as a top-10 wide receiver when catching passes from Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles? Fantasy managers should always be chasing volume. That potential surely exists with Devonta Smith and Michael Pittman. Maybe even Shenault too. And even though Williams is unlikely to lead his team in targets, he’s on a highly explosive offense with a top-tier quarterback.

Don’t be afraid to take a chance on these guys. They all have top-24 potential and at their current ADP, that’s unbelievable value.

Thanks for reading. Don’t be afraid to reach out to me @RobFFAddict and let me know what you think!

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June 25, 2021
224