Wild Card Weekend: Best Bets To Win Against The Spread
The NFL regular season is over, and now it’s time for the playoffs. Hopefully, you bettors had a successful season and are trying to win more money in the weeks to come. My Week 17 picks went 3-1-1. Here are my Super Wild Card Weekend best bets to win against the spread.
My Wild Card Weekend Picks
Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills (-7)
The Indianapolis Colts are coming in the playoffs finishing the season 7-3 in their last 10 games. I don’t care that they lost three games, but I care that they blew a 17 point second half league to the Steelers two weeks ago. It’s a little inflated because of his huge game in Week 17, but since the Colts bye week, Jonathan Taylor has averaged 130.2 yards per game. Taylor will look to continue his domination as of late. Quarterback Philip Rivers is a quarterback now that can keep the Colts in games but won’t win games on his own. To win the game, wide receivers T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, and Michael Pittman Jr. to be successful on Saturday. Hilton has had four touchdowns in the last five games. And to win, I think he needs to catch one this week.
The Buffalo Bills have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games and will look to continue the recent success. The Bills running game has been up and down all season but will have to step up since the Colts defense is the 2nd ranked defense against the run. Quarterback Josh Allen can run the ball, and I think he has to if the Bills want to be successful. They also have John Brown, Gabriel Davis, and Cole Beasley at wide receiver if he is healthy. In the last five weeks, Allen has thrown 15 touchdowns even though he only played the first half in Week 17. The key to me in this game is Josh Allen, if you couldn’t tell already.
The Colts were 8-8 against the spread and 5-3 ATS on the road. The Bills were 11-5 against the spread and 6-2 ATS at home. This week’s playoff game will be the first game this season that the Bills will have in the stands. But to me, the key factor in this game is Josh Allen. The Colts will keep close, but Allen will take over this game at some point. MY PICK: Buffalo Bills Week -7.
Embed from Getty ImagesLos Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks(-3.5)
The Los Angeles Rams went 6-4 in their last 10 games and are looking for a playoff win on the road. Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown will lead the Rams in the running game. In 12 games, Akers ran for 625 yards. But can he do it against the 5th ranked defense against the run? We will have to wait to find out. But with the way the Rams like to use the play action pass, the running game will need to be somewhat successful. We still don’t know if quarterback Jared Goff will play on Saturday. In his Week 17 absence, John Wolford had a decent performance and helped the Rams get to the playoffs. Wide receivers Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds, and Robert Woods need to perform well against a porous 31st ranked Seahawks pass defense. The Rams were ranked 13th in the NFL in passing, but with all cylinders firing, I think they can be a top 10 pass offense.
The Seattle Seahawks were 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Seahawks running game this season was ranked 12th in the NFL, and that is concerning knowing the Rams defense is ranked 3rd against the run. Chris Carson will need to be the top end back the Seahawks were hoping he was at the beginning of the season. But we all know this team succeeds when quarterback Russell Wilson succeeds. After a hot start, the Seahawks cooled off and finished the season ranked 13th in passing. I expect D.K. Metcalf and Tyler to be successful if the Seahawks win this game. But don’t forget that Jalen Ramsey will more than likely shadow Metcalf. For Seattle to succeed in the playoffs, Wilson must show he can hold this team up when need be.
The Rams were 9-7 against the spread and 4-4 ATS on the road. The Seahawks were 8-8 against the spread and6-2 ATS at home. This game, to me, is mainly gut feeling. The Rams have the better defense, and their offense will look to take advantage of the Seahawks pass defense. I like them more if Goff plays, but I think they have a chance even with Wolford at quarterback. MY PICK: Los Angeles Rams +3.5.
Tampa Buccaneers vs. Washington Football Team (+8.5)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 7-3 in their last 10 games and are looking to have a deep playoff run. The Buccaneers running game is lead by the duo of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones III. Unfortunately, they are ranked 29th in the NFL. The Washington defense is strong up front, and against the run, they are ranked 13th in the NFL. Tom Brady is the key to the Buccaneers offense in the 2020 season, and we all know that. In his last five games, Brady averaged 335.6 yards per game and had a total of 15 touchdowns. One thing in his favor Brady has a strong receiving corps. The Buccaneers have Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and at the tight end Rob Gronkowski. They will be going against a very good, 2nd best ranked Washington defense against the pass.
The Washington Football Team went 6-4 in their last 10 games and won the NFC East division. Washington has changed as an offense multiple times throughout the season. The regular season started with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback and ended with Alex Smith at quarterback after one of the biggest personal comebacks in sports history. The running game is lead by Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic. I don’t think they will be able to have a great game since they are going against the best defense in the NFL against the run. Hopefully, they only need to have a decent game to win. Smith, since becoming quarterback, has had three pass catchers that he likes the most. They are McKissic, wide receiver Terry Mclaurin, and tight end Logan Thomas. Tampa Bay is only 21st against the pass, so Smith, to me, will be one of the most important factors in this game.
The Buccaneers were 9-7 against the spread and 4-4 ATS on the road. Washington was 9-7 against the spread and 5-3 ATS at home. The Buccaneers are looking for a long playoff run, but Washington is trying to prove they deserve to be in the playoffs. Can Washington pull off the upset? I dunno but they will give it their best with Chase Young leading the way on defense. MY PICK: Washington Football Team +8.5.
Embed from Getty ImagesCleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
The Cleveland Browns are 7-3 in their last 10 games and earned their first playoff birth. The Browns have quarterback Baker Mayfield, but the running game leads the offense. They have a true twoheaded monster in Bradley Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb had 1067 yards in only 12 games. The Steelers have a good defense, but the Browns must be successful on the ground to win this game. Mayfield leads a passing game ranked 24th in passing, but the Steelers defense is ranked 3rd against the pass. In most games, Mayfield needs to be a game manager, but if he has to make a key play to win the game, I am unsure if he can. Look for Jarvis Landry to be involved early and often.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were 6-4 in the last 10 games and are looking to bounce back from a rough end to the season. In Week 17, the Steelers sat Ben Roethlisberger, so that game against the Browns doesn’t matter to me as much. The Browns running game this season has been nonexistent since they are ranked 32nd in the NFL. Runningbacks James Conner and Benny Snell need to at least try to be serviceable players if possible. The passing game and Roethlisberger run this team. They have targets galore in Chase Claypool, Dionte Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and James Washington. Roethlisberger has one of the lowest ADOT in the NFL, but I think Roethlisberger will need to throw the ball down the field a little bit to win this game. The Browns have the 22nd ranked passing defense, which is good for the Steelers. If they can keep Roethlisberger from being pressured, I believe he will have a good game.
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The Browns were 6-10 against the spread and 3-5 ATS on the road. The Steelers are 10-6 against the spread and 5-3 ATS at home. The Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski will miss the playoff game due to Covid-19. When these teams played in October, the Steelers won 38-7. I don’t think they beat them that bad, but I see the Steelers showing up when it means the most. MY PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.
Checkout my twitter @chieffan1002 for more advice and fantasy football banter. DM me with any other betting questions you have.
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