Will Dalton Kincaid Really Have a TE1 Ceiling?

Pros

Dalton Kincaid is an athletic tight end prospect from Utah and, like Zach Charbonnet, a fast riser in NFL Draft circles, even being mocked ahead of former consensus TE1 Michael Mayer of Notre Dame. There is a definite fantasy football upside with Kincaid, but he is not without flaws.

The appeal of Kincaid is his athleticism. He moves well for his size and for the position. He runs routes well, including with subtle manipulative movements. Kincaid extends his frame well and uses good body positioning. Despite being on the small side for a tight end, he deals well through contact catching the ball, and as a runner after the catch. His PFF receiving grades in 2021 and 2022 were 83.2 and 91.7.

Because Utah utilized its tight ends at an above-average rate and because of Kincaid’s athleticism, he ran a wider variety of routes than most prospects at his position run. That will be attractive to NFL teams.

From an analytics perspective, Kincaid’s profile is very mixed but has some positives. His listed height of 6’4″ edges past the 6’3″ threshold for tight ends, and his expected selection in round 1 or 2 checks the draft capital box (rounds 1-3). If Kincaid can break a 4.71 in the 40-yard dash (very possible), it would check that box and help his relative athletic score (RAS), which we expect to be very good for the position. It would also give him a height-adjusted speed score over 100 (105). Kincaid’s EPA per play stats in his two most productive years were good; he hit 1.16 in year 4 and 0.89 in year 5. His best season’s yards per reception (2021) and his career average number were both 14.2, which crosses the 14.0 ypr threshold for tight ends. (numbers per Jay Stein)

Cons

Besides age, the main concerns with Kincaid are his size, especially his current listed weight of 240 lbs, and, related, his strength, physicality, and blocking. These are not strengths for Kincaid. He is average at run-blocking, and some observers say he has a foundation of good technique, but he is a liability in pass-blocking and, depending on his landing spot, may need to grow as a blocker once he is in the NFL.

Kincaid’s age is also a concern. He is a five-year player (two years at FCS San Diego) who will be 23 on draft day and 24 in October. While this is not an automatic red flag for a prospect, and age is not as crucial for tight ends in dynasty fantasy football, Kincaid plays a position where many standouts take two or three years to truly break out. This could put him at 27 before he’s “hitting” for us.

From an analytics perspective, Kincaid’s profile has blemishes. In the size category, his weight could miss typical positional thresholds. Obviously, he also doesn’t check the age box. Also, he will have to exceed expectations with his 40 time to raise his weight-adjusted speed score over 100. (calculations per Jay Stein) Many people will also point to Richardson’s sub-55 career completion percentage as a red flag.

Summary

Dalton Kincaid is probably the best pass-catcher among the 2023 tight-end prospects and is in the conversation with Luke Musgrave for the most athletic. He can fit in with how some teams are deploying tight ends in contemporary NFL offenses as almost a “big wide receiver.” He only played 35% of his snaps in-line at Utah, with 55% coming in the slot and 10% out wide.

If he goes to a team that uses him well and has someone else to block, he can thrive – and do so, perhaps sooner than some other tight ends. Since he wouldn’t be asked to block much, his bad blocking won’t keep him off the field as much.

On the other hand, Kincaid is an older prospect who could lose snaps due to his issues with strength and blocking. This would inhibit his growth and cap his ceiling.

Given team needs and his fast-rising draft stock, some landing spots that make sense are: Packers (15th and 46th overall), Commanders (16th and 48th), Lions (18th and 49th), Chargers (22nd and 55th), and Bengals (29th and 61st). If the Cowboys (27th and 59th) move on from free agent Dalton Schultz, they could also be suitors. A few dark horse candidates are the Saints (30th), Chiefs (32nd), Texans (34th), Panthers (40th), and Jets (44th). One landing spot that could go either way for fantasy (but which I’d be worried about) is the Patriots (47th).

Ideal Role: a “move” tight end with top-12 fantasy tight end upside

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: mid-2nd (tight end premium)

Player Comp: Mike Gesicki, Greg Dulcich, Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, Evan Engram