Will New OC Arthur Smith Bring Fantasy Value to Pittsburgh?
Arthur Smith was fired from the head coach position in Atlanta. He is now the new offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh. Head coach Mike Tomlin explained why Smith was his choice for offensive coordinator. But is that enough to bring fantasy value to the Pittsburgh Steelers?
That’s swell, but we all witnessed Smith last season in Atlanta. Are we now brimming with fantasy football anticipation?
Why Arthur Smith Could Bring Fantasy Value
Before his stint in Atlanta, Smith was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee for two seasons. The Titans were second in the league for those seasons with rushing attempts (966). Smith’s philosophy was to wear the opposition down with a physical run game.
That firmly places Smith’s potential for fantasy upside with the running back room. Now that the Steelers have added Cordarrelle Patterson to the mix, the Steelers run game is a three-headed monster. It wasn’t enough. We had to negotiate the hiring of Smith fresh off his abysmal stint in Atlanta as head coach, and now, there are three mouths to feed. Or are there?
Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson was signed after the NFL put in the new kickoff rule. Patterson has an NFL record nine career kickoffs for touchdowns. He has led the NFL in kick return average three times and has led in kickoff return yards twice. For his career, he is averaging 29.3 yards per return.
Patterson was drafted in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft by the Minnesota Vikings. Although he was drafted as a wide receiver, he has spent the past four seasons as a running back/kick return specialist. His past three seasons have been in Atlanta with Smith.
Last season, Patterson played in 14 games. He had 50 carries, nine receptions, 181 yards on the ground, and 38 receiving yards. He averaged a three-year low 2.6 fantasy points per game (the previous two years, he averaged double-digit fantasy points).
Patterson is the gadget play/kickoff return specialist. At 33 years young his ability to “wear the opposition down with a physicality” sits third behind the Steelers’ other two running backs.
This makes Patterson’s fantasy value (we know Smith, you don’t care about our fantasy teams) minimal.
Jaylen Warren
Here is the thing: running backs come and go. With all the movement veteran running backs made in free agency this season (so far), will you ride the wave with them, or is your head being clouded with the rookie class running backs’ flavor of the month?
We know that despite his lack of Bijan Robinson use in the run game last season, Smith’s offensive coordinator years were spent making the run game fantasy relevant (it helps to have Derrick Henry). Now Smith is back at the offensive coordinator position on a team that likes to run the ball. This has to mean something, right?
Last season, the Steelers were ninth in rushing attempts per game (28.3) and 11th in rushing yards per game (117.6). Warren, for his part, averaged 5.5 yards per carry, with 8.1% of his carries going for 15 yards or more. He was on the field for a 49.1% snap share and a 43.1% opportunity share. Warren was sixth in the league for running back target share at 15.3%, and he still only finished as RB31 in standard fantasy leagues and RB22 in PPR leagues!!
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Smith is the offensive coordinator, and as much as his previous resume insists, he likes the ground-and-pound run game, remember last season? With Bijan Robinson carrying the ball for the Falcons 41% of the time, he finished RB12 in standard leagues but RB9 in PPR leagues, averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game.
This would seem to favor Warren, who played more in passing situations. Warren had 61 receptions on 74 targets last year (Robinson was targeted 81 times and had 58 receptions).
Warren is the player with the most upside in the current Steelers’ running back room. Going against him being a fantasy standout: 1) he was super-efficient last season and still finished outside the top-20 in fantasy scoring; and 2) until Smith demonstrates otherwise, he arrives in Pittsburgh with the still pungent odor of last year’s failure trailing him.
Najee Harris
By the end of last season, Harris was the short-yardage goal-line back. He carried the ball 52.4% of the time, averaging 4.1 yards per carry.
The Steelers have until May 2 to decide whether to pick up Harris’ fifth-year option. Whether they do or not appears to be more impactful on Warren’s status than Harris.
The speculation is that Harris is that physical running back that thrives in Smith’s system. That’s because everyone points to his time with Henry in Tennessee and forgets about his time in Atlanta.
This should be Harris’s (and fantasy managers who draft him) year.
Harris is two years removed from his Lisfranc injury. His 4.1 yards per carry was his most in two years. He was eighth in red zone touches (46) and sixth in carries (255). His 1035 rushing yards were seventh most in the league, and 14 breakaway runs were fourth.
Still, Harris only averaged 9.8 fantasy points in standard leagues (RB20) and 11.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues (RB23). From a fantasy standpoint, there is slight reason for optimism in the Steelers’ running back room. There is a quarterback that defenses cannot dismiss, an offensive coordinator, and a head coach who has been preaching the importance of the run game, and there are three quality run options, each with a particular skill set.
And then there is the hint of pessimism: there is a running back by committee approach that Smith favored last year even with the number eight draft pick. Robinson carried the ball 41% of the time, but Tyler Allgeier carried it 35.6%. It wasn’t the domination by Robinson that was expected.
Warren was efficient, and Harris had over 1000 rushing yards and eight total touchdowns, and neither finished in the top 15 for fantasy points for the year.
And then there is Arthur Smith and his unwillingness to utilize the weapons he had in Atlanta. What will Smith do in a competitive AFC North that boasts three new offensive coordinators?
The thought of Smith adding fantasy value to anyone in the black and gold isn’t looking good.
What do you think? Will Arthur Smith add fantasy value to anyone in Steeler Nation?
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