Win Your Fantasy Football Draft With These Five Players

After doing countless FFPC and NFFC drafts and evaluating the market ADP’s, I have come up with a list of players that I feel are underpriced and if things break right, they will be league winners. I strongly feel that there is an edge this year due to the uncertainty and lack of pre-season. If you are able to grind the camp news and figure out what’s real and what is coach speak you will run away with your league’s title.

One note before we start…The ADP’s that I layout for the players are based on high stakes drafts that I have personally done on both NFFC and FFPC. There is a very good chance that if you’re playing home leagues, some of these guys can be had at an even better ADP and I will touch on that as well.
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Will Fuller, WR, Texans

Will Fuller may wind up being the most owned guy in my portfolio this year. Fuller’s ADP is 66 on FFPC and 74 on NFFC (ADP from 8/1-present) and has gone as late round 8 over the last week or two on NFFC. This is just far too late for a player with his upside. But but but…he’s always injured. STOP IT! Worrying about a player’s injury history with a price tag this late is ridiculous. It is fine to not want to take on a risky player in the early rounds because those are the picks that can sink your team quickly but this isn’t the case here.  We can all remember back a few years ago when Keenan Allen was an “injury risk” and he has since rattled off 3 consecutive 16 game seasons. Even if we only get 12 games from Fuller, he is still well worth the price. Fuller gets the downfield targets and had the highest AYA (adjusted air yards) in 2019 out of any Texan, including Deandre Hopkins. Fuller also has amazing chemistry with Watson, something that should not be overlooked in a season where we expect chaos to happen. Yes, they brought in Brandin Cooks and David Johnson, but we have no idea how they will fit in with Watson and Bill O’Brien.

I think Fuller can be had in rounds 7-8 in home leagues but I will be taking him every time he falls to me in round 6 of sharper drafts. His ceiling is easily a top 12 WR.

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Christian Kirk, WR, Cardinals

Kirk had an up and down 2019 campaign but 2020 could see him break out in a big way. He is receiving rave reviews from his head coach in training camp. “I see the production and I see the potential to go through the roof,” said Kingsbury before camp opened. Kirk will see much softer defense than in 2019 where he drew the teams #1 corner most of the time, thanks to the addition of Deandre Hopkins. Kirk is going end of round 8 to mid-round 9 in most drafts and I feel like this is one round too late. There’s no reason why Kirk can’t get 120+ targets and haul in 80 passes. Kirk also makes for a very good dynasty buy before the season starts as you can get him very cheap and it will probably be the last time you see his price this low.

Target Kirk in round 8 in high stakes and rounds 9-10 in less sharp home leagues.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens

As you may or may not know from some of my other writing, I am NOT a running back guy. I lean toward a zero RB or “modified zero RB” approach, especially in formats where you can start 4 or more wide receivers (NFFC). Dobbins is the perfect guy to target as your first RB if you’re going with a true zero RB approach or as your RB2 in a modified approach. Dobbins had a phenomenal career at Ohio State and the Ravens were ecstatic that he fell to them in the mid-second round of the 2020 NFL draft. The front office was quoted as saying that they just couldn’t pass him in the second since we have a first-round grade on him. The reason why J.K. can be a league winner is pretty simple, he plays for the most run-heavy team in the NFL. Yes, Mark Ingram is still there and will remain the lead back but the Ravens ran 596 times last year, a number sure to regress but don’t count on it coming down too much. I would expect Dobbins to get somewhere around 25-30% of the backfield work to start the year with that number increasing as the season progresses. If something were to happen to the aging Mark Ingram, Dobbins becomes an instant RB1 and a sure-fire league winner. Dobbin’s draft price has stayed pretty steady going early to mid 6 but falling as late as rounds 8 or 9. 

Chris Herndon, TE, Jets

I was hesitant to put Herndon in this article because his price seems to be rising slightly as of late but not enough to scare me off. Herndon is a guy who everyone was hyping and over drafting last year which made no sense to me. New coach, new system, and an 8 game suspension to start last season were too many red flags. This year, however, things are set up for Herndon to explode. Herndon is “turning heads” in camp and showing great chemistry with QB Sam Darnold. The jets are void of pass-catchers as well. Yes, they went out and signed free agent Breshard Perriman and drafted Denzel Mims in the second round but these guys will not see a high volume of targets in year one of this system. This team sets up to be a “funnel offense” with the bulk of the targets going to three guys…Jamison Crowder, Le’Veon Bell, and one Christopher Herndon. It would not shock me one bit if Herndon led this team in targets, receptions, and touchdowns in 2020. It is also not a stretch to see him finishing the season as a top 5 tight end. The earliest he has come off the board in the NFFC is mid-round 9 but his ADP is 158 which puts him into round 13. If I miss out on Kelce or Kittle (both of which are priority targets of mine) I look to target Herndon in rounds 10-12. He has true league winning upside at this ADP. 

A.J. Dillon, RB, Packers

I don’t think I need to say it as you probably already know, but A.J. Dillon is a physical specimen. He stands 6′ 247lbs and ran a 4.53 40 at the combine. For reference, Derek Henry is 6’3 247 and ran a 4.54 40 at his combine. Let’s set the record straight, the Packers have a plan for him. Dillon was projected to go in rounds 4 or 5 of the NFL draft and the Packers (who already have a very good RB) used a second-round pick to get him. I have heard many smart people compare this backfield to what the Saints did a couple of years back with Ingram and Kamara. That was a vicious one-two punch that most teams couldn’t stop and the Packers could very well be trying to replicate this. If you remember correctly, the Saints didn’t have much at WR other than Michael Thomas either and that offense was run through those three players, very much similar to the 2020 Packers with Davante Adams being the true alpha at wide receiver. There are also rumors swirling around the Packers facility that Jamal Williams may be cut. If this happens that only leaves Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, and Dexter Williams who is mostly on the roster for his special teams play. Don’t expect Dillon to catch passes but he can be a true bruiser for this team and see a lot of goalline work. Dillon is basically free in most drafts with an ADP of 146 and has gone as late as mid-round 15 in the NFFC earlier this month. If you are constructing any type of zero RB builds, Dillon needs to be a priority for you in the later rounds. 

As always, happy drafting and feel free to message me on Twitter with any questions or general fantasy discussions @MikeFonte85

 

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