WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. is a Special, Instant Game-Changer
WR Marvin harrison, jr. – ohio st.
6’3″ | 209 lbs.
Career Stats: 155 rec 2,613 yds 31 td
Pros
To be honest, I’ve heard/read “Generational” together with Marvin Harrison, Jr.’s name more from people commenting how he wasn’t that and shouldn’t be called that than I did from people actually calling him that. (The same can be said even more so for Caleb Williams, but that’s another conversation.) People get caught up in that word. Regardless, MHJ is probably the closest thing we have to a “can’t miss” prospect in this draft class and will be a high-value dynasty fantasy football asset from Day One.
Harrison has size and is a true X receiver, but still has the athleticism and route-running skills necessary to be a high-impact player from the jump. In a way, he benefitted by starting as a smaller player in his freshman year and figuring that out. Then he just went ahead and got bigger and better over his three years at Ohio State.
Embed from Getty ImagesThere is not much MHJ can’t do. He checks the boxes for hands, 50/50 balls, footwork, athleticism (Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List, by the way), body control, ball tracking, and catch radius. He can win in many ways and will be defended like that, which means he will “have options” on many of his reps.
Unsurprisingly, Harrison’s analytical profile is good. While we did not get combine testing from MHJ, we can probably safely say his HASS would be over 100 and his RAS would be 9.00 or above. Harrison is an early breakout and early declare, and he hits pretty much all the common age-adjusted production thresholds. Highlights include a year 3 ryptpa (adjusted for games played) of 3.22 and career y/rr of 2.98. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)
Cons
With a prospect this elite, we are at least somewhat nit-picking when finding valid criticisms, but no prospect is perfect. Harrison has some development to do to be an elite route-runner, does not possess the explosive speed Malik Nabers does, and could use some improvement in his short game, especially in today’s NFL. These weaknesses contribute to his overall disappointing YAC ability, especially relative to how elite the other aspects of his game are.
From a data perspective, Harrison’s profile has few flaws, but they exist. Harrison’s contested catch rate dropped to 43.3% in 2023, which brought his career rate to 52.5%. We’d like to see 60% or above, especially for someone with his size and projected role. Like a lot of receivers in this class, Harrison’s career drop rate (6.1%) is higher than we like to see, though that seems to be a trend with prospects these days, and identifying a true drop can be tricky, especially with the type of subpar QB play MHJ had in 2023.
Perhaps Harrison’s biggest weakness is his YAC game. Thresholding models like to see a career mark of 6.5 yac/rec or above, and Harrison’s is 5.1, despite an ADOT that we love (13.5) but one that is not very deep. In his defense, the year 3 yac/rec number jumped to 6.2 after posting seasons with 3.4 and 4.2. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)
Summary
Marvin Harrison, Jr. is him. We have high confidence he will not bust and there is still some room to grow to make the ceiling higher. Like most fantasy folks, he is my rookie WR1. Harrison is a boiundary/X wide receiver, but not the type who is becoming less and less relevant for fantasy football. The question is, where will he land? I’d be more excited about him going to Arizona (pick 4) or the Chargers (5) than New England (3) or the Giants (6), but he is a high-priority fantasy target no matter what.
Strengths
- being him
- size
- body control & footwork
- hands & catch radius
Concerns
- top-end speed
- short game
- YAC ability
2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: early 1st in a 12-team superflex tight end premium format
Ideal Role: alpha WR1/boundary/X
Player Comp: AJ Green, Ja’Marr Chase, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, CeeDee Lamb
