Yahoo NFL DFS Week 5

Week 5 is now upon us. That means another chance to win big playing DFS. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Articles sections include Home and Dome, Preferred Pricing, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses and Super Stacks.

For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. There are three teams that play Home and Dome in week 5:

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans vs Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Preferred Position Price Points

Because the pricing is so compressed on Yahoo’s format, there are a lot more players at the same cost than there are on other platforms. For our purposes, that is great because it gives us certain price points to target when creating DFS lineups.

QB – $29

Jacoby Brissett IND @ KC

In most weeks, having players going up against the Chiefs will be a good thing. It all starts with the QB and Kansas City has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to that position. Other than a week 2 blowout, opposing QBs have scored at least 20 fantasy points in every contest during the 2019 season. Speaking of consistency, Jacoby Brissett is the only QB to throw at least 2 TD passes in every game of 2019. Yes, the ONLY one. Not even his MVP-winning counterpart that he goes up against in week 5 has done that this season.

Andy Dalton CIN vs ARI

Defense-adjusted Value Over Average is an efficiency metric developed by Football Outsiders as a way to quantify how well NFL teams are playing. Through 4 weeks, the Cardinals are ranked as the 11th least efficient pass defense, which makes them a good matchup to target. This week, they have the Bengals who have struggled to run the football so far in 2019. Perhaps that will change in week 5, but nonetheless, I want to attack this matchup through the air. Obviously, that means that Andy Dalton will have the ball in his hands as Cincinnati looks for their first victory of the season. The QB may be a good stack option with some of his pass-catching weapons (more or that later).

RB – $36

Ezekiel Elliott DAL vs GB

After a successful week 1 in terms of run defense, the Packers have completely fallen apart. Over the last 3 weeks, Green Bay has allowed 523 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs to their opponents. So far in 2019, The Packers are the 6th least efficient run defense according to DVOA. In week 5, they have the Cowboys on tap. In all likelihood, Ezekiel Elliott will have his best fantasy performance against this Packers defense. Elliott has actually been held to under 20 fantasy points in all 4 games this season. Part of that has been because Dallas was in several blowout victories and did not need Elliott to play the entire game. However, last week, in a loss, Elliott played in 97% of the offensive snaps. The Packers offense is good enough to make this a tight game right to the end, but the run defense is bad enough that the RB should feast. Therefore, Elliot has a great chance of playing the entire game and putting up monster production.

Bonus: Dalvin Cook $40 MIN @ NYG

There is no other RB priced at $36. However, I thought it was best to represent the 2 RBs that I most want to play in week 5. Dalvin Cook does not have as great of a matchup as Ezekiel Elliott, but he is nonetheless a great play. Cook is currently ranked 3rd among all NFL RBs in 2019 fantasy points scored. It took the Bears defense to hold him under 20 fantasy points for the 1st time this year. The Giants unit is definitely not as good as Chicago’s so Cook should return to his productive ways.

WR – $21

Tyler Boyd CIN vs ARI

Perhaps no team has been hit as hard by the injury bug as the Bengals. Tyler Boyd is one of the team’s only fully healthy WRs right now. He is coming off a disappointing fantasy performance of 3.3 points in week 4. That was the only time this season where Boyd saw less than 10 targets. Considering Cincinnati’s lack of WR depth, Boyd should definitely return to double-digit targets in week 5. He should be in strong consideration if you are also playing his QB, Andy Dalton.

Alshon Jeffery PHI vs NYJ

Alshon Jeffery has been a TD machine since joining the Eagles in 2017. He has played 32 games for Philadelphia and has found the end zone 17 times. So far in 2019, Jeffery has 2 TDs in 2 games. Technically he was active for a 3rd game, but he was injured almost immediately and did not register a catch. The odds for him scoring again in week 5 are certainly in his favor. The Jets have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs in 2019. Jeffery will face a much more favorable cornerback matchup than what he saw last week. Even then, Jeffery still managed to score a TD over Jaire Alexander.

TE – $20

Zach Ertz PHI vs NYJ

Continuing the trend of picking on the Jets, I think Zach Ertz is also a great play this week. On the surface, New York appears to be a tough matchup for TEs as the team has allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to the position. However, on a deep look, the Jets have not faced any elite (or frankly even above average) TEs in 2019. Yes, there was David Njoku, but he left that week 2 game without a reception. I week 5, New York takes on a TE who currently leads his team in total targets and red-zone targets.

Darren Waller OAK vs CHI (London)

Another $20 TE who leads his team in targets. Only the biggest difference between Zach Ertz and Darren Waller might be geographical. The Raiders and Bears are traveling across the Atlantic to play their matchup in London. The one edge that Oakland may have is the fact that they arrived in London on Monday. Meanwhile, the Bears only arrived in England on Friday. That means that the Raiders will have more time to adjust to the time change and they may have a step on their opponent’s on Sunday. Even with the tough matchup, things are looking decent for Waller who may have lower ownership in DFS tournaments for week 5 because of the matchup with the Bears.

Best Bet Bargains

RB – Jaylen Samuels PIT vs BAL $10

After a full practice on Friday, James Conner will likely be playing on Sunday. However, last week, Jaylen Samuels showed that he does not need the be his team’s RB 1 to have fantasy football value. Samuels scored 19.54 fantasy points in a game where Conner was not only active but excelled. More than half of the Steelers passing targets went to their RB as both Conner and Samuels saw 8 of them. In addition, the Ravens defense is not what it once was. Currently, according to DVOA, they have the 5th least efficient run defense, and the 8th least efficient pass defense. That makes for a great matchup considering Samuels prowess in both the ground and air game, even with Conner active. Samuels might be one of the best $10 minimum players all season.

WR – Will Fuller HOU vs ATL $14

Kenny Stills was a limited practice participant throughout the week. If he is held out of Sunday’s game, then that would mean that Will Fuller will likely see more targets. That being said, last week, when Stills left with an injury, Fuller only saw 6 targets. It was, however, the first time since week 1 that Fuller saw less than 7 targets. Strangely though, that week 1 contest has been Fuller’s best fantasy performance of 2019. One factor was that that game was played indoors. In week 5, Fuller gets not only that but a Home and Dome game.

TE – Tyler Eifert CIN vs ARI $15

Target the TE playing the Cardinals. This isn’t revolutionary advice, as I have been preaching that for several weeks. In this case, Tyler Eifert‘s price is slightly depressed even with this league-best matchup. The reason is that Eifert has been splitting playing time with other TEs. In fact, Eifert has not even played in half of the offensive snaps for the Bengals in any game this season. However, it is where the team is using Eifert that is most important, not how often. Even with the reduced playing time, Eifert still leads the Cincinnati in red-zone targets with 4. Considering the injuries at receivers that the Bengals have suffered, and the great matchup, this could be the game where Eifert truly breaks out in 2019.

Dominant Defenses

Philadelphia Eagles vs NYJ $15

The Eagles have a great matchup in week 5 going up against the Jets. Regardless of who is the QB, the Jets offensive line will not do any favors. According to the Football Outsiders, the Jets rank as the 30th best o-line in adjusted sack rate. The only aspect working against Philadelphia is the fact that the Jets are coming off of their bye week. That being said, this is such a miss-match of talent, that the Eagles should dominate regardless.

Los Angeles Chargers vs DEN $12

The Chargers defensive unit has, for the most part, been able to provide pressure on opposing offenses. In week 1, against the Colts top tier offensive line, the Chargers defensive front managed to produce 2 sacks. Through 4 weeks, the Indianapolis offensive line ranks 7th in adjusted sack rate. The Broncos rank 21st, so the Chargers defense should be able to rack up the fantasy points. The fact that there are only $12 makes them a virtual must-play in Yahoo.

Super Stack

Colts @ Chiefs

QB – Patrick Mahomes KC $41

WR – Demarcus Robinson KC $17

TE – Jack Doyle IND $12

I have already mentioned a couple of Colts players in this article. On the Chiefs side, there are several great options to have in your DFS lineups. Patrick Mahomes is the most expensive player on the slate this week, but he still feels as though he is worth it. Because he is so expensive, however, I prefer to stack him with a cheaper option such as Demarcus Robinson.

If Mahomes is too expensive, Jacoby Brissett is also a nice option (as I mentioned earlier). Elsewhere on the Colts, my favorite place to attack this matchup is at TE spot. The Chiefs have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to TEs in 2019. Now, choosing between Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle could be difficult, That being said, I prefer Doyle because he has out-snapped Ebron in every game this season. More importantly, Doyle is tied for 2nd on the team in red-zone targets. And since T.Y. Hilton may miss another game, Doyle could potentially be the primary end zone weapon in a potential shootout with the Chiefs.

Buccaneers @ Saints

QB – Teddy Bridgewater NO $23

WR – Michael Thomas NO $29

WR – Chris Godwin TB $24

Saints and Buccaneers battles have historically been shootouts. Going with Teddy Bridgewater allows DFS managers to have a ton of roster flexibility with such a cheap QB. That includes being able to afford Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin in order to represent both sides of this matchup.

Other Stacks: Cardinals @ Bengals, Jets @ Eagles

Thank you for reading. Be sure to check out Going for 2 for more great DFS content.

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.