Zach Charbonnet: Not Flashy, Just Really Good

Pros

While not as divisive as the other Zach at running back (Zach Evans), Zach Charbonnet has both fans and skeptics. In the end, though, he might be the safest all-around back in the class besides Bijan Robinson, and he could very well end up being a lot of people’s RB3 behind Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Charbonnet is a senior out of UCLA, where he landed after two very different years at Michigan. Some folks (myself included) are willing to essentially throw out his year 2 setbacks due to the COVID season, the truncated B1G schedule, the emergence of Donovan Edwards, and a generally subpar Michigan offense. Once back in his native California, Charbonnet put together two very good years of production and showed growth as a player.

In some ways, Charbonnet reminds me of Xavier Hutchinson in that I could put the “very good at a lot, not elite at any one thing” label on him. That’s not a bad thing. When you put the whole package together, you have an impressive prospect.

Charbonnet has the NFL-friendly body type we look for in workhorse backs. Still, he has pretty good footwork and speed for his size. He shows good vision and patience and is a good downhill runner. Charbonnet’s physicality is impressive, as he absorbs contact well with good balance and keeps fighting for more yards. Charbonnet is probably an underrated receiver, too. He doesn’t run a wide variety of routes but has shown he can catch and gain extra yardage.

From an analytics perspective, Charbonnet doesn’t pop off the page but does check some boxes. His 220 weight and 29.0 BMI meet or exceed thresholds for size, and his likely day 2 selection would check the draft capital box. Charbonnet should definitely beat the 4.6 40-time threshold, and even a time as slow as 4.50 would give him a speed score of 107, safely in the desired 100+ range. His growth as a receiver was impressive. According to Jay Stein, we want to see a running back reach a receptions share of 9.0%, and 13.0% is elite. Stein’s figures for Charbonnet’s year 3 and 4 reception shares at UCLA were 11.6% and 12.7%, respectively.

Cons

The biggest knock on Charbonnet is his top-end speed and acceleration. While he has good burst and can gain yardage in chunks, he is not a home run threat, and as Brandon Lejeune notes, he gets chased down by defenders on longer runs. Lejeune and Kevin Coleman both point out Charbonnet takes too much time to re-accelerate after shifting down, sacrificing momentum and precious milliseconds, and needs to incorporate too much upper body into his cuts.

Other criticisms of Cahrbonnet are indecisiveness and running with his pad level too high at times. Neither of these flaws is glaring, but he will need to work on these aspects of his game. Furthermore, while we like Charbonnet’s physicality and contact balance, he can sometimes welcome contact too much, as Lejuene and Mike Bower point out in this video. (They did a part 2 video, too.)

From an analytics perspective, Charbonnet has some flaws. He won’t check the age box. He is 22, and he was not an early declare. Charbonnet’s career average of 5.9 ypa falls just short of the 6.0 criterion, and his best season dominator rating of 23% barely crosses the 22% threshold.

Summary

Many believed Zach Charbonnet would come out in the 2022 class, but he returned to UCLA and put together a very good senior season. Despite the 2023 running back class’s depth, he remains near the top of its rankings as a consensus top 5 prospect at the position. He has as good a chance as almost any other back in the class to be a three-down lead back on an NFL team. Charbonnet can have an immediate impact in short yardage, goal line, and red zone situations, even if he is not yet a team’s primary running back. If he doesn’t test poorly at the combine, he should almost surely secure day 2 draft capital in the 2023 NFL Draft.

The running back landscape will be very interesting this offseason with a deep free agent class and a deep rookie class. At the moment, it’s hard to say who will have the type of opening for a big role by the time the draft comes around. Charbonnet is fairly scheme-diverse since he had a pretty even zone/gap split, so he can likely fit a number of team’s plans.

The Panthers (40th, 62nd, and 94th overall), Dolphins (52nd, 78th, and 85th), Chargers (55th and 86th), and both Super Bowl teams (63rd, 64th, 95th, and 96th) all seem like good fits. If the Bears (65th) move on from David Montgomery, they could be another possible destination. Depending on what the Cowboys (59th and 91st) do with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, they could also be a suitor

Ideal Role: possibly eventual workhorse; at least a physical committee back to start

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: late 1st to late 2nd round

Player Comp: Leonard Fournette, AJ Dillon, Tyler Allgeier, James Conner