2016 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Giovani Bernard
RB Giovani Bernard | Cincinnati Bengals | 4th Year
2015 Stats: 154 carries for 730 yards, 2 TD, 49 receptions for 472 yards
Less turned out to be more for Cincinnati Bengals running back Giovani Bernard in 2015. He had the lowest carry total in three NFL seasons, but he averaged a career-best 4.7 yards per carry while setting a career-high for rushing yards (730). Jeremy Hill’s heavy red zone usage (40 carries, 24 inside the 10-yard line last year) and resulting production (11 rushing touchdowns in 2015) hurts Bernard’s ability to offer much as a touchdown scorer, but there is a void to be filled in the Bengals’ offense this year.
The free agent departure of wide receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu leaves the Bengals without 98 receptions and 152 targets from 2015. Tight end Tyler Eifert (ankle) looks likely to not be ready for the start of the season, which leaves another production void after he had 52 catches for 615 yards and 13 touchdowns last season.
With Eifert’s expected absence early Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com suggested the team could use more two-back sets, which points even further toward a bigger passing game role for Bernard. A lack of touchdown production looks like a bit of a fluke too, as Bernard was the only back in the league with 26 or more red zone carries (32) to score just twice in 2015. Hill is obviously used closer to the end zone, but a slight correction should come for Bernard after he had 15 total touchdowns over his first two seasons.
Bernard has a particularly high ceiling in PPR leagues, and he’s an easy bet for at least 60 catches this season. A workload split is never ideal for fantasy owners trying to navigate it, but Bernard is in line for a career-high in total yards in 2016 and he’s the better bet for a real breakout among Cincinnati’s two running backs.
2016 Projection
160 carries for 740 yards, 4 TDs, 65 receptions for 588 yards, 2 TD
Breakout Percentage
60%
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