2016 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Melvin Gordon
RB Melvin Gordon | San Diego Chargers | 2nd Year
2015 Stats: 184 car 641 yards 0 TD | 33 receptions 192 yds 0 TD
Gordon entered the 2015 season as one of the more popular rookies from a fantasy football angle, but a bad season for the San Diego Chargers easily spread to him. On 217 touches, the Wisconsin product did not score a touchdown and averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. One positive is that Gordon had double-digit carries in 14 of 16 games, which was a good sign of better things to come as long as he maintains a prominent role.
But Gordon’s 2016 is off to a dismal start, with a report in early May that his seemingly minor January knee surgery was actually a microfracture procedure. The expectation is he’ll be ready for training camp, but the Chargers definitely won’t offer anything but a positive vibe about Gordon’s health at this point.
The return of Ken Whisenhunt as San Diego’s offensive coordinator is good news, especially for the team’s running game. But there’s a small matter of a bad offensive line that finished 31st in run blocking last season, based on Football Outsiders’ metrics. The Chargers did not draft an offensive lineman until the third round, and the only notable free agent addition has been Matt Slauson, a guard by trade who will step in at center for San Diego.
Gordon’s health will be worth tracking as training camp starts and the season gets closer, and he may actually become a draft day value (RB26 right now, per Fantasy Pros.com). But there’s way too much downside for me to fully buy Gordon as much of a breakout candidate for 2016, and I’ll probably avoid him altogether in drafts and auctions.
2016 Projection
190 carries, 730 yards, 5 TD, 30 receptions for 180 yards 0 TD
Breakout Percentage
10%
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