2017 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Ameer Abdullah

RB Ameer Abdullah | Detroit Lions | 3rd Year

2016 Stats: 18 carries for 101 yards, 5 receptions for 57 yards (2 games)

After averaging 4.2 yards per carry as a rookie in 2015, and needing offseason shoulder surgery, Detroit Lions running back Ameer Abdullah started last season with 120 total yards and a receiving touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts. But a foot injury in Week 2 sidelined him for the rest of the season, and Lions finished 30th in the league in rushing (81.9 yards per game).

The Lions didn’t pull the trigger on any major free agent running backs, like LeGarrette Blount or Adrian Peterson, and they did not add anyone to the mix in the draft. So some faith in the current group is evident, and the buzz from OTAs has Abdullah in line for a featured role.

Abdullah is not built like a workhorse back (5-foot-9, 203 pounds). But he topped 260 carries in each of his last two seasons at Nebraska, with 36 rushing touchdowns over his three seasons starting at least seven games.

Abdullah had 25 receptions during his rookie season, but Theo Riddick (133 catches over the last two seasons) is clearly Detroit’s passing down back as long as he 100 percent after surgery on both wrists. Recent signing Matt Asiata, if he earns a roster spot, may vulture some touchdowns and receptions in a background role. Any sort of committee would be frustrating for fantasy owners, but Abdullah should lead the Lions’ backfield in touches if he is healthy.

Fantasy Football Calculator has Abdullah being drafted as a high-end RB3 (RB27), and a sixth-round pick (pick 6.02) in 12-team standard leagues right now. His ADP in PPR leagues is similar (RB25, pick 6.02), which seems to set aside Riddick’s potential impact.

As a RB3 in 12-team leagues, Abdullah is worth taking a chance on. But if his ADP moves into mid-RB2 territory, unless Riddick is somehow not ready for Week 1, there’s room for hesitation. So that makes Abdullah’s breakout potential for 2017 a real coin flip, with an up-and-down tide very possible once training camp and the preseason start.

2017 Projection:

195 carries for 920 yards, 5 TDs, 35 receptions for 315 yards, 1 TD

Breakout Percentage: 50%

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