Fantasy football is here. Now it is time to seriously think about your draft strategy. Who is relevant and who can you just wait on until the later rounds or use as a handcuff?
The NFC South is offering you a little bit of both. Let’s go.
ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons have all the necessary pieces to be a formidable offense. They also have a bad defense, which means their offense will be playing from behind. Good fantasy news?
Matt Ryan, Quarterback: stats 2019: 616 passing attempts, 66.2 completion percentage, 4466 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 14 interceptions; 34 rushing attempts, 147 rushing yards, one touchdown, 4.3 average fantasy points per game
Here is the skinny, the Falcons are loaded with offensive talent. Here is another bit of wisdom, according to most experts they also have the hardest schedule in 2020. Their defense hasn’t improved drastically so their offense will carry the burden of playing catch-up.
Last season under the same circumstances, Ryan finished 21st in the league in points 267.34 and third in the league in passing attempts with 616. This was while he was being sacked 48 times.
The offensive line should be better depending on the health of Chris Lindstrom and the acquisition of Justin McCray. Hopefully, it will keep Ryan upright. Even if it doesn’t Ryan ended last season as QB11.
Julio Jones, Wide Receiver: stats 2019:157 targets, 99 receptions, 1394 receiving yards, six touchdowns, 14.1 yards per receptions, 4 drops, 11.7average fantasy points
This is as close to a slam dunk as you can get. Jones has finished in the top seven among wide receivers in PPR scoring every year since 2014. Last season he finished fifth in classic fantasy (175.1) and third in PPR fantasy (274.1).
Yes, Calvin Ridley is approaching rapidly approaching with his 17 touchdowns in 29 games in two seasons. But if you are counting on Jones for touchdowns then nope. But you aren’t so feel free to draft Jones early and often.
Hayden Hurst, Tight End: stats 2019: 39 targets, 30 receptions, 349 yards, two touchdowns, 11.6 yards per receptions, zero drops, 2.9 average fantasy points
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
Okay, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Atlanta. Last season the Falcons offense averaged 294.6 yards per game which was third in passing offense. Austin Hooper’s target share is up for grabs and Hurst is a bigger faster version of Hooper.
Carolina Panthers
Am I the only one who keeps forgetting that Teddy Bridgewater is now the quarterback for the Panthers? Oh and Matt Rhue is now the head coach. But there is still Christian McCaffrey.
Christian McCaffrey, Running Back: stats 2019: 287 rushing attempts, 1387 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns, 4.8 average rushing yards; 141 targets, 116 receptions, four touchdowns, three drops, 22.2 average fantasy points per game
Can we please agree to put this under the heading of DOH!
Ian Thomas, Tight End: stats 2019: 30 targets, 16 receptions, 136 yards, one touchdown, 8.5 yards per reception, four drops, 1.2 average fantasy points per game
First, there is no Greg Olsen to swoop in on target shares. Second as a quick get me out of this mess option, Thomas is the man.
Teddy Bridgewater, Quarterback: 2019 stats: 196 passing attempts, 67.9 completion percentage, 1384 passing yards, nine touchdowns, two interceptions; 28 rushing attempts, 31 rushing yards, 10.1 average fantasy points per game
Bridgewater played in five games while Drew Brees was injured. He did well. Now he is on a team where the defense is suspect at best. That means the offense could be playing from behind…a lot. Bridgewater throwing more passes?
New Orleans Saints
Again a team with all sorts of fantasy prospects. With the Covid-19 lurking let’s look at the handcuffs on this team. We all know you are going to draft Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.
Emmanuel Sanders, Wide Receiver: 2019 stats: with San Francisco 97 targets, 66 receptions, 869 yards, five touchdowns, 13.2 yards per reception, three drops, 7.3 average fantasy points
First, can we all agree that Sanders is an upgrade from Ted Ginn Jr.? Last season in nine starts Ginn Jr., accounted for 57 percent of New Orleans’ offensive snaps but only seven percent of the total receptions, which includes 9.5 percent of the total receiving yards.
Meanwhile, in the 10 games, Brees played he averaged 294.1 passing yards a game. With an upgrade who can play outside or slot while attention in on Michael Thomas, Sanders will improve on Ginn’s numbers.
Latavius Murray, Running Back: 2019 stats: 146 rushing attempts, 637 yards, five touchdowns, 4.4 rushing average; 43 targets, 34 receptions, one touchdown, four drops, 7.7 average fantasy points per game
There is a chance that (God forbid) Kamara gets injured or sick, then Murray is up. There is also the chance that the Saints utilize a one-two punch. Last season Murray was in on 23.8 percent of red-zone attempts inside the five-yard line.
Taysom Hill, Tight End: 2019 stats: 5.2 average fantasy points per game; 27 rushing attempts, 156 yards, six passing attempts, three completions, 55 yards
Here is something weird, Hill is now listed as a tight end in ESPN leagues. Weirdly good that is. We know that Hill will be used in a multitude of ways. We don’t know when he will be used. But when in the game he is fantasy gold, especially in those leagues he is listed as a tight end. You have a late-round pick you could do worse.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Oh, so they won the quarterback free agency sweeps. Is there anyone who doesn’t believe they are going to toss the hell out of the ball this season?
Last season with a slightly visually impaired Jameis Winston the Buccaneers threw the ball a league-high 626 times. Their offense ranked second in total yards (6648) and tied for third in total touchdowns (48).
Now they may have one of the greatest quarterbacks under center and Bruce Arians “no risk it no biscuit” philosophy…yeah.
Mike Evans, Wide Receiver: 2019 stats:118 targets, 67 receptions, 1157 yards, eight touchdowns, 17.3 average yards per receptions, five drops, 12.7 average fantasy points per game
Chris Godwin, Wide Receiver: 2019 stats:120 targets, 86 receptions, 1333 yards, nine touchdowns, 15.5 average yards per receptions, three drops, 13.6 average fantasy points per game
Tom Brady, Quarterback: 2019 stats:613 passing attempts, 60.8 completion percentage, 4057 yards, 24 touchdowns, eight interceptions; 26 rushing attempts, 34 rushing yards, three touchdowns, 16.5 average fantasy points per game
So for a change of pace going to put all these men together, because well it is going to be epic.
Even with a subpar supporting cast last month, Brady completed 60 passes over 20 yards, which was fifth-most in NFL. He also was the seventh most accurate deep passer completing 43 percent of those passes of 20 yards or more.
And now we have an offensive philosophy that demands the long ball. A head coach who has stated he is going with a two-tight end set this season. So you not only have Evans and Godwin on the field but hello Rob Gronkowski and OJ Howard. And regardless of how you feel about the ceiling for either of those players, opposing defenses will have so show them respect.
Then there are the two wide receivers who combined for 2490 yards last season. Evans who averaged 17.3 yards per catch last season with eight touchdowns after missing time with an injury. And Godwin who averaged 15.5 yards per catch and nine touchdowns.
Godwin finished as WR2. His 2.2 percent drop rate was the lowest mark in the NFL since 2015.
The ceiling for this team is mind-blowing. Seriously. Except for the running backs, why wouldn’t you go with one of the best wide receiver duo in the NFL? Or take a flyer on Gronkowski (don’t do it). And wait until Howard shows whether last season was an anomaly before salivating over that two tight end formation.
What you do know is that Brady-Evans-Godwin should be as epic as it sounds.
Come talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
