Fascinating, Polarizing: Can RB Braelon Allen Be Impactful?

braelon Allen Running Back – Wisconsin
6’1″ | 235 lbs
Career Stats: (rushing) 596 att 3,482 yds 35 td (RECEIVING) 49 rec 274 yds 0 td

Braelon Allen was recruited to Wisconsin as a hybrid safety/linebacker, though he did play some running back in high school. Many observers have perhaps half-jokingly asserted he should have stayed as a defensive player. Allen is indeed a polarizing prospect.

Pros

First and foremost, we must acknowledge Allen arrived as a 17 year-old and still did well against Big 10 defenses. His supporters remind us he will play his entire rookie year as a 20 year-old. He doesn’t turn 21 until January 2025. They say that matters in and of itself, but also that we have to think about how he can further develop; that he is an unfinished product. I don’t think that’s a completely unfair argument.

Allen has good size, and despite doing very little testing at either the combine or his pro day, we can say he has functional athleticism for the running back position. He is a generally effective downhill, north-south runner who has sufficient vision, patience, and acceleration into the second level.

As Allen’s collegiate career progressed, and especially in 2023 when Wisconsin went to a more air-raid style offense, he added more receiving work, so he can probably be an adequate check-down option and catch a few screen passes.

Lance Zierlein gave him a film grade of 6.10, which is the seventh highest in the class at the position. (There are two ties above him, so the group of 6.10 or above is nine running backs.)

From an analytical perspective, there are some things to like in Allen’s profile. He hit age-adjusted thresholds in a lot of categories, including some categories where he hit the mark for two or three years. Allen didn’t reach the career threshold for breakaway run rate (50%+), but he was above 40% all three seasons and ended with a mark of 43.1%. His PFF grades were pretty good, too (80.1, 81.1, 78.6). (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)

Cons

You might be able to tell from my tepid discussion of Allen’s positives that I’m not too high on him. I’m not alone, but either way, we need to take into account all aspects of a prospect’s skills and profile.

Even the age argument has a counter. The fact remains he played for three years and still has the shortcomings I discuss below.

Allen’s top-end speed and athleticism are at least in question from what we see on film and without athletic testing numbers. Some have even cast aspersion on him for not testing much, saying he is slow and afraid to test. We can’t know that for sure, but skipping a fuller pro day where the atmosphere and results are more favorable is definitely not ideal.

These concerns extend to Allen’s general lack of notable lateral movement ability and his inadequate rushing acumen outside the tackles.

Additionally, Allen’s performance generally declined after his freshman season, and his increased receiving in 2023 was very volume-driven in the new offense; he does not run great routes or have very good hands. Allen also had ball security issues, did not perform well against the best competition he faced, and is not very good at pass protection.

Perhaps most alarmingly because of his size, Allen lacks a good approach to engaging contact. He angles into defenders, misaligning his shoulders and hips, rather than taking on the contact squarely. It’s as if he does not like contact and is trying to avoid it. He should embrace being a power runner but doesn’t. Jesse Schneeman, my co-host on Dynasty Fever, likes to call this “looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane.”

Analytically, Allen’s size and overall production are good, but there are definitely flaws to note. He missed common thresholds in. career ypa, yco/a, mtf/a, bay%, elusiveness, and y/rr. A number of these stats align with what we see on film with him playing smaller than he is. If Allen’s draft capital is closer to what I expect than what his supporters want, it would definitely damage his overall Analytical profile – and with not much else buoying him, that’s not good news. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)

Summary

Braelon Allen is a big, downhill, between-the-tackles runner. He has adequate athleticism and receiving skills but lacks true explosiveness, notable agility, and comfort with contact. I think Allen can have a role on an NFL team, but won’t ever be a workhorse. His ceiling appears to be low.

However, one thing working in Allen’s favor that detractors like myself don’t acknowledge enough is that he may benefit from the increase in the power running game the last couple of years — gap and duo run schemes that counteract today’s NFL defenses.

Defensive units use smaller personnel, are spread out more (which was an antidote to spread-out offenses), and “keep a roof” on the offense with the two high safeties sort of looks that defend passes to the outside and/or deep. Offenses have started to punch back — smaller personnel, passes in the intermediate (and short) range and/or over the middle, innovative motioning, and power running up the gut. Philadelphia, Detroit, and the Rams come to mind as teams that have had recent success mixing in these runs well. While Allen isn’t very good with contact once in the second level, he can attack through the A/B gaps and gain a few yards, something the NFL is asking backs to do more (again). If that turns into a goal line role, his touchdown upside is, of course, greater, and therefore so is his fantasy value.

As we’ve said all along, draft capital and landing spots will decide a lot, especially with this year’s running back class, but I have Allen as RB8 and 26th overall in my current superflex rookie rankings. Some interesting landing spots for Allen include Carolina (picks 65, 101, 141, and 142), Arizona (66, 71, 90, 104, 138), the Chargers (69, 105, 110, 140) the Giants (70, 107), Detroit (73), the Rams (83, 99, 154, 155), and Philadelphia (120).

I am probably out at cost on Allen if it’s anything higher than a late 2nd round pick in superflex rookie drafts. I’m more likely to take players like Bucky Irving, Audric Estime, and Ray Davis at their anticipated costs.

Strengths

• size
• downhill running
• does just enough as a receiver

Concerns

• explosiveness/athleticism
• power/play strength/approach to contact for his size
• pass protection

2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: mid-2nd to late 3rd in a 12-team, superflex, tight end premium format

Ideal Role: high-end backup with upside for a primary two-down back

Player Comp: David Montgomery, James Conner, AJ Dillon, Brandon Jacobs, Zach Evans