Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Friday, March 9
This will be the last Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice article that I post this NBA season. Next week I will post at least a couple NCAA March Madness articles and following that I will be in Vegas and then focus on preparation for the MLB season where I plan to come back to write my “Swing for the Fences” article for the third season here at GoingFor2.
I hope you all enjoyed this column and got some benefit out of it and maybe made some money in the process. Overall, I am pleased with the results of the NBA wagers. My 3-star and higher picks on the Sides performed well with a 55-42-1 ATS record (56.7%) and +30.8 units. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same for my 1 and 2-star Sides picks which struggled lately finishing with just a 38-55-2 ATS record (40.9%) for -29.9 units. Meanwhile, my Totals wagers did well pretty much across the board with an overall record of 111-76-10 (59.4%) and +51.8 units. With legalized sports betting gaining momentum in the USA, I could be placing these wagers for real by next NBA season and this little experiment gives me something to build on in the future.
So, without further ado here is my write-up and picks for one last day on Friday’s big 10-game slate. Hopefully, I can end on a high note! And be sure to follow me on Twitter @Rotopilot to see all of my articles.
Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vegas lines in their analysis.
In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.
I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.
HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.
DFS Advice
Teams in Pace Up matchups:
- Pacers
- Pistons
- Wizards
- Nuggets
- Blazers
- Kings
- Cavaliers
Teams in Pace Down matchups:
- Hawks
- Bulls
- Pelicans
- Lakers
- Warriors
- Magic
- Clippers
Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
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- Lakers
- Clippers
- Nuggets
- Pelicans
- Cavaliers
Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Grizzlies
- Bulls
- Magic
- Knicks
- Kings
Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:
- Lakers
- Pelicans
- Grizzlies
- Blazers
Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:
- Rockets
- Pistons
- Wizards
- Bucks
General Overview:
- Cash Game targets:
- Pelicans (High Scoring, More Productive, No Davis)
- Cavaliers (Pace Up, High Scoring)
- Warriors (No Curry)
- Magic (short-handed)
- GPP targets
- Lakers (High Scoring, More Productive)
- Blazers (Pace Up, More Productive)
- Nuggets (Pace Up, High Scoring)
- Potential Fades:
- Knicks (Low Scoring)
- Bulls (Pace Down, Low Scoring)
Bovada Betting Tips
Today’s plays
Sides
- Pelicans + 3 (5-star)
- Lakers +6.5 (5-star)
- Raptors +2.5 (4-star)
- Grizzlies +9 (3-star)
- Hawks +8.5 (3-star)
- Knicks +10 (3-star)
- Blazers +1 (3-star)
- Bulls +7.5 (2-star)
- Clippers Pk (2-star)
- Magic +3 (1-star)
Totals
- Rockets/Raptors Under 221 (5-star)
- Bulls/Pistons Under 213 (5-star)
- Knicks/Bucks Under 214 (4-star)
- Magic/Kings Under 206 (3-star)
- Hawks/Pacers Under 210 (1-star)
- Jazz/Grizzlies Over 197 (1-star)
- Wizards/Pelicans Under 220 (1-star)
- Lakers/Nuggets Over 229 (1-star)
- Cavaliers/Clippers Under 230 (1-star)
Previous Results
| Sides | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 21 | 17 | 0 | 55.3% | +11.5 |
| 4-star | 13 | 12 | 1 | 52.0% | -0.8 |
| 3-star | 21 | 13 | 0 | 61.8% | +20.1 |
| 2-star | 19 | 24 | 0 | 44.2% | -14.8 |
| 1-star | 19 | 31 | 2 | 38.0% | -15.1 |
| Overall | 93 | 97 | 3 | 48.9% | +0.9 |
| Totals | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 5 | 6 | 3 | 45.5% | -8.0 |
| 4-star | 12 | 8 | 1 | 60.0% | +12.8 |
| 3-star | 20 | 13 | 2 | 60.6% | +17.1 |
| 2-star | 34 | 22 | 0 | 60.7% | +19.6 |
| 1-star | 40 | 27 | 4 | 59.7% | +10.3 |
| Overall | 111 | 76 | 10 | 59.4% | +51.8 |
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