Week 3 is in the books, and though there weren’t as many surprises as as we had in Week 2, we still had plenty of guys breaking out in huge ways. I’m here to give you which players I think can sustain success and which ones you should not be adding or starting going forward despite his good numbers this week. Let’s get to it.

Fantasy Football: Breakout or Fakeout Week 3

Breakout

RB Karlos Williams, Bills (12 car 110 yds 1 TD)

Williams has dramatically out performed LeSean McCoy through the first three games of the season. Only one player has had a rushing touchdown in all 3 games so far this season and his name is Karlos Williams. Not Eddie Lacy, not Adrian Peterson, not Marshawn Lynch, and not Jamaal Charles (Charles had a receiving touchdown in Week 1 not a rushing touchdown). The Bills have already come out and said they may rest Shady McCoy in Week 4, if Williams is still on your waiver wire add him now.

RB Devonta Freeman, Falcons (30 car 141 yds 3 TDs, 5 rec 52 yds)

No one saw this coming. No one. I thought he could be viable based on volume in a PPR league because he could catch a ton of balls out of the backfield, but to get 30 carries? Tevin Coleman could muddy the waters when he comes back, but for now I’m putting Freeman in the Breakout category.

WR Rishard Matthews, Dolphins (6 rec 113 yds 2 TDs)

Jarvis Landry who? DeVante Parker who? Those two guys were the ones being hyped all preseason, and I still expect Landry to be good on the season and Parker will get his shot eventually, but Matthews has led the Dolphins in receiving every week this season. He is also the only Dolphins wide receiver with a touchdown catch — and he has three of them on the season.

RB Lance Dunbar, Cowboys(10 rec 100 yds)

I drafted Dunbar in just about every league I’m in as my late round flier. Due to injuries — and C.J. Anderson — I dropped Dunbar in every league to get the “hot waiver pick-up” and now I’m kicking myself. I predicted the Cowboys would be forced to pass more in 2015 than they did last year simply because they didn’t have DeMarco Murray getting close to 400 carries. Now I’m trying to get Dunbar back from waivers. Ugh. Now with Brandon Weeden at quarterback, and the Dallas defense not looking as good as it did through the first two weeks, I’m expecting Dunbar to be an even bigger part of the offense because they will be playing from behind a lot.

RB Antonio Andrews, Titans (12 car 49 yds 1 TD)

Ok, those aren’t “breakout” type numbers, so this is more of a prediction of a potential breakout. Antonio Andrews will continue to be the lead back in Tennessee and could have value going forward. Am I starting him? Probably not. But he is worth an add, and won’t be highly sought after since the Titans are on a bye week. Assuming he keeps the starting gig, these are a few of the teams he faces for the rest of the year. Falcons, Saints, Jaguars twice, and the Raiders. None of those defenses scare you.

Fakeout

RB Chris Johnson, Cardinals (22 car 110 yds 2 TDs, 1 rec 40 yds)

Chris Johnson looked good against my beloved 49ers this weekend, but I’m not ready to buy it just yet. For one, my 49ers aren’t very good. Two, Andre Ellington is going to come back eventually and this becomes a very crowed backfield. It’ll be hard to keep David Johnson off the field with his play making ability, Ellington is going to get his touches, and Chris Johnson will be mixed in as well. This is a situation to avoid unless we get some clarity in the coming weeks.

TE Gary Barnidge, Browns (6 rec 105 yds 1 TD)

For those that follow me on Twitter @GeoffLambert77, Sunday morning I tweeted out that Gary Barnidge was my “punt” play in daily fantasy leagues. I was killed for it. No one was buying it. So I played him in a league on Fanduel and won me some money. So why do I now have him as a Fakeout? Choosing him for my daily lineup was purely matchup based. The Raiders had given up two touchdowns to opposing tight ends in both games this year. Tyler Eifert had two in Week 1 and Crockett Gillmore had two in Week 2. So for you TE streamers out there, play the tight end that plays the Raiders every week. (they play the Bears next week, I highly doubt Martellus Bennett will be available, but if you own him, play him).

RB Chris Thompson, Redskins (8 rec 57 yds 1 TD, 2 car 29 yds)

Thompson’s stat line was because of game flow not because the Redskins think he should get more snaps than Alfred Morris and Matt Jones — as he did in Week 3. Ideally the Redskins want to pound the ball by running Alfred Morris and Matt Jones, but since the Skins could not get anything going in the run game and eventually were playing from way behind, Thompson got a ton of snaps. He can be viable in games where the Redskins are heavy underdogs — thus forced to pass more — but he won’t be consistent enough to warrant a roster spot.

WR Marvin Jones, Bengals (5 rec 94 yds 1 TD)

Marvin Jones should be owned in all leagues, so let me get that out-of-the-way first, but he is going to be the third option in the passing game most weeks for a team that wants to run the ball more. Tyler Eifert, despite the bad game, is the No. 2 option in this offense. Jones will have games like this but predicting them is a headache that I’d rather not deal with.

WR Rueben Randle, Giants (7 rec 116 yds 1 TD)

This was a typical Rueben Randle game. If you were to go back and look at Randle’s season stats from 2014 they actually aren’t too bad, but he is just as likely to have complete dud like Week 2, a game in which he had one catch for five yards, as he is to have a  game like he did in Week 3.  Victor Cruz‘s return is just around the corner so Randle’s value is going to drop. Sell high if you can, but if you’re in a league with me I’m not buying. He should be owned in all leagues but I’m not starting him unless the matchup is good.

Thank you for reading this week’s Breakout or Fakeout article. Be sure to put your email in the box below to receive all of our newest content straight to your inbox, and as always, you can follow me on Twitter @Geofflambert77.

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