Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidate: Adam Thielen

WR Adam Thielen (Minnesota Vikings)

2019 Stats: 30 receptions for 418 yards, 6 TD

Via a text exchange with a friend after a draft last year, when they wondered why I didn’t have any “hometown guys”, and after a far too-detailed explanation why I didn’t land Stefon Diggs or Kirk Cousins-“I’m not touching Adam Thielen with a 10-foot pole in fantasy this year.” My friend asked why I had that thought regarding Thielen, and I don’t remember giving a good answer. Just a hunch, I guess.

Thielen started the 2019 season pretty well, with a touchdown in five of the first seven games and five catches for 75 yards in one of the others. But early in Week 7 against the Detroit Lions, as he caught a touchdown, Thielen suffered a hamstring injury that would derail his season. Through Week 6, he was on pace for 69 receptions, 976 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Thielen missed Week 8, then made an ill-advised return in Week 9 against the Kansas City Chiefs for seven snaps before exiting. He missed the next four games, then later sat out a meaningless Week 17 game. From Week 7-Week 16, in four games played, Thielen had four catches for 52 yards and a touchdown. He did end on a better note on the whole though, with 12 catches for 179 yards in two playoff games.

The Vikings traded Diggs to the Buffalo Bills this offseason. He’s leaving behind team highs in catches (63), targets (94) and yards (1,130) from 2019. In 2018, Diggs and Thielen were both top-12 fantasy wide receivers. Rookie Justin Jefferson is in line for a substantial role, and Olabisi Johnson showed some promise as a rookie last year. All in all, Thielen is going to be Cousins’ most trusted target in 2020.

Over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, Thielen averaged 9.2 targets per game. In the three games Diggs missed over that time, he had 13, 12 (2017) and 7 targets (2018). The bounce back buzz feels real, even accounting for the Vikings’ run-based formula.

Thielen is coming in with an ADP of WR9 (pick 3.05) in full PPR right now (12-teams, via Fantasy Football Calculator), with only a slight drop in 12-team standard (WR10, pick 3.02). So the masses see a rebound back to top-10 range for him, as the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver for Minnesota.

But I’m right where I was on Thielen a year ago. The floor is high, as long as he’s healthy, but to draft him is to pony up for his ceiling in the third round. I’m not willing to do it, and among Vikings’ pass catchers I’d prefer to wait to take a flier on Jefferson or tight end Irv Smith Jr.

2020 Projection: 80 receptions for 1,036 yards, 8 TD

Bounceback Confidence Level: 25%

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