2016 AFC Championship Breakdown: Offenses in Review

After an interesting weekend in the NFL, the final four teams have been decided and like last year, each conference championship game features the top two seeds. In the NFC, the Carolina Panthers will host the Arizona Cardinals (more on that later in the week) while in the AFC we get what we all wanted and thought we would get earlier in the year. Manning versus Brady, as the New England Patriots will travel to Denver, and face the Broncos in a rematch of a game that was missing a vast amount of stars (TJ Ward, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Peyton Manning all missed the game entirely, or parts of the game).

When taking a closer look at the Broncos and Patriots, the offenses are both trending in different directions. The Broncos, who struggled to move the ball against the Steeler’s mediocre defense, while the Patriots made the Chiefs defense look like Swiss cheese, and with a healthy Edelman, Gronkowski, and Amendola, along with the emergence of James White recently, looks like the sky is the limit once again. With that being said here is a more in-depth look at each position on the offense and who has the advantage.

Offensive Line:

This is a positional group that neither team really feels confident in. Everyone knows about the weaknesses that Patriots have shown recently as Tom Brady has been under siege while the Broncos have struggled to protect at times and that should only be magnified with Manning’s slow feet. The biggest issue for each team will be that they are facing the top teams in the NFL in sacks with the Broncos rating as the number one team in the NFL with 52 sacks while the Patriots are number two in the NFL with 49 sacks. That should only magnify weak links, which for the Broncos is at the tackle positions in left tackle Ryan Harris, and right tackle Michael Schofield, while the Patriots weak spots are at the guard with a young Shaq Mason still learning the position and Josh Kline struggling with a shoulder injury the past few games.

The strongest player for the Patriots is Sebastian Vollmer for the Patriots, who by playing left tackle allows Brady to feel more confident standing in the pocket for the extra second, and not feeling paranoid about phantom pressure. The strongest player for the Broncos is actually a tie with Evan Mathis and Louis Vasquez both garnering respect, and solidifying the guard position for the Broncos, allowing Manning to step up in the pocket comfortably.

Despite the problems the Patriots have had with rotating linemen this season, the Patriots players are more superior with the centers representing the tie breaker. The tackles and guards cancel each other out with the Patriots being weak at guard, and strongest at tackle and the Broncos being the reverse. However with Bryan Stork, the Patriots have the slight advantage over Matt Paradis with Stork being better overall while Paradis is more successful in the run game.

Advantage: Patriots

 

Wide Receivers:

This is a position that is extremely close with each team possessing players that are All-Pro caliber players, above average players and good role players. The best player of each group is Julian Edelman who is just about uncoverable, and is tough as nails, but also smart and avoids big hits. The next two players, however, belong to the Broncos with Demariyus Thomas, posing as the lone receiver who can win a jump ball, and has speed and good run after the catch ability, and the other is Emmanuel Sanders who trumps Amendola by a notch due to his slightly better speed. Amendola makes up some of the difference for his hands and intelligence, but there is still a slight gap due to the speed difference. The bottom of the depth chart clearly gives the Broncos an advantage as Bennie Fowler and Andre Caldwell have proven they are able to deliver when asked to step up and Cody Latimer still could breakthrough, and possesses a lot of skills similar to Markus Wheaton of the Steelers, while the Patriots have Keshawn Martin, Chris Harper and Matthew Slater, none of who make big impacts aside from their special teams prowess.

Advantage: Broncos

 

Tight ends:

This one is pretty simple as although the Broncos have enviable depth with Virgil Green, Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis all able to contribute and become mismatches in a three tight end set, the Patriots win this one easily due to one man: Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski is too good to cover with one man and had the Broncos even take Von Miller out of pass rushing just to try to cover him down the field. Gronkowski is a nightmare to cover and on pace to be the best tight end of all-time and with luck health wise, should get there is he continues on his torrid pace of grabbing touchdowns. The Patriots also have Scott Chandler, who is a depth option at this point and provides nothing blocking wise, while Michael Williams is the reverse, offering a strong blocking presence, but virtually nothing in the receiving game. The overall depth of the Broncos earns them extra points, but Gronkowski is too big of an advantage, and with not star tight end on the other side, this one is no match. Patriots all the way.

Advantage: Patriots

 

Running backs:

This grouping is pretty cut and dry as the Patriots at the beginning of the season would win this hands down, but after injuries ravaged them of their top two running backs, this one belongs to the Broncos. CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman both trump Steven Jackson and Brandon Bolden, and while James White offers a steadying presence catching the ball, the Broncos possess the top two options on both teams with Anderson representing a downhill runner along with the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, while Hillman has the speed to make people miss around the edge. The Broncos also have an advantage as Kubiak’s zone running scheme is much more beneficial to running backs. Overall none of the players on either team are stars so therefore, this isn’t a huge plus on Denver’s side, but they have a sizable gap in the talent without Blount on the Patriots side.

Advantage: Broncos

 

Quarterbacks:

This one is right up there with tight ends as one of the easiest to decide. This debate is about the team right now and Tom Brady is still playing at an All-Pro type level while Peyton Manning still is struggling at times with long throws. Manning still has the smarts for the position as he routinely picks out the weaknesses in the defense and sets his team up in the correct play to take advantage of them. Manning also can draw a team offsides at least twice a game normally which gives the offense a boost when they normally need it. However Tom Brady still can make all the throws and has even become adept at creating more time with his feet, and scrambling outside of his comfort zone in the pocket. When discussing their careers, Brady seems to have far surpassed Manning with his fourth ring and his success in the playoffs while Manning has never been super successful in the playoffs and has faded rapidly. Any way you slice it Brady is ahead of Manning in this game and his ability.

Advantage: Patriots

 

Overall: Patriots win 3-2

The offense of weeks 16 and 17 for the Patriots is not the same one on the field now, and the Broncos still have huge question marks regarding their offense led by Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler. With Gronk, Edelman, Amendola, and most importantly Vollmer on the offensive line, the Patriots hold a distinct advantage on this side of the ball.

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