QB Alex Smith, Washington Redskins
2017 Stats: 4,042 pass yds, 26 TD, 5 INT; 355 rush yds, 1 TD
In virtually every way, 2017 was the best season of Alex Smith’s career. He topped 4,000 passing yards (4,042) and 25 touchdowns (26) for the first time, with career-highs in passer rating (104.7), yards per attempt (8.0) and yards per completion (11.9). For good measure, Smith also threw just five interceptions and completed 67.5 percent of his passes.
All of that helped yield a finish as the fourth-best fantasy quarterback for Smith last year (ESPN scoring). He has always been an underappreciated fantasy commodity, with running ability to supplement his value, but last season may be as good it gets.
Smith was traded to the Washington Redskins this offseason. While piloting Jay Gruden’s offense will line him up to succeed, there’s a clear talent downgrade and more question marks (ex: tight end Jordan Reed‘s health) in going to the Redskins from the Chiefs.
Smith led the NFL in passer rating on downfield throws (20-plus yards) last year. But the mark he set in his previous four years with the Chiefs (79.2) would have been 21st out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in 2017. With Patrick Mahomes drafted to replace him, which he will in Kansas City this year, Smith became almost an entirely different quarterback.
With Matthew Berry’s “100 Facts” column as the root, here’s a combination of factors working in Smith’s favor this year.
-During the past three years, Smith has the fifth-most rushing yards among quarterbacks. If not for a relatively paltry 134 rushing yards in 2016, he’d be even higher on that list.
-In three of the last four years, Jay Gruden’s offense has has been in the top-12 of the league in pass percentage. The success of Kirk Cousins, at least as a productive fantasy quarterback, points directly to that volume.
-As an offensive coordinator or head coach, an offense directed by Gruden has finished inside the top-10 in total quarterback fantasy points in four of the last five seasons.
As a nod to the outlier that 2017 looks like, and his history of being underrated as a fantasy quarterback, Smith has dropped to QB20 in 12-team mock drafts (pick 12.09, via Fantasy Football Calculator). That’s an incredible overreaction to an all but certain negative correction that’s coming, and even if his stock rises some over the next month Smith should easily outperform his ADP.
Alex Smith 2018 Projection: 3,640 passing yards, 24 TD, 9 INT; 310 rushing yards, 3 TD
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