2018 Fantasy Football: Should Ezekiel Elliott be the No. 1 overall pick?
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
2017 Stats: 242 carries for 983 yds, 7 TD; 26 rec. for 269 yds, 2 TD
With an average of 20.32 fantasy points per game last year (ESPN PPR scoring), Ezekiel Elliott ranked third among running backs. But that production of course came over just 10 games, as Elliott eventually gave up his fight against the league and took a six-game suspension related to a domestic violence incident.
In 25 career games, Elliott has had at least 20 touches 21 times. In his 10 games last year, he averaged 26.8 touches per game. In his final six games, on each side of his suspension, Elliott averaged 27.7 carries per game with four 100-yard games.
Elliott’s yards per carry average eroded a full yard last year compared to 2016, due at least in part to the Cowboys’ offensive line not being as good. But the addition of rookie Connor Williams should help, and Elliott’s volume (top-10 in the league in carries and red zone touches-40 carries) is not going away.
Elliott has been a capable pass catcher over his two NFL seasons, with a catch rate over 75 percent and a yards per catch average of 10.9. The Cowboys have questions in the passing game, rooted in the departures of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, which points to a greater role for Elliott. According to the Dallas Morning News, that’s just what Elliott expects as he expands his route tree.
Todd Gurley is widely considered the top running back, and the most likely No. 1 overall pick, in fantasy drafts this year. But Priest Holmes (2003 and 2004) was the last running back to repeat as the top-scoring fantasy running back, and with even a little bit of regression the door is open for someone else to usurp Gurley as the RB1 this year.
Health is the unknowable caveat regarding any player. But there’s nothing standing in the way of Elliott pushing back toward 300 carries this year, to go along with a career-high in receptions. There’s something to be said for not having a suspension hanging over him too, with a fresh mind and his body being saved from six games of physical impact last year.
With Gurley almost sure to regress some, Le’Veon Bell going through another holdout that probably won’t end until just before Week 1 and David Johnson coming back from an injury playing for what looks like a fairly bad team, Elliott carries fewer question marks than the other top-four fantasy running backs right now.
Narrowing in on his handcuff could be a tough proposition, with Rod Smith likely the guy to draft for those that go that route. But Elliott belongs in the conversation to be the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts, and I’m putting him a bit ahead of Gurley, Bell or Antonio Brown.
Ezekiel Elliott 2018 projection: 290 carries for 1,365 yds, 11 TD; 45 receptions for 480 yards, 2 TD
Bye: Week 8
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
