With bullpens taking more innings, the staff ace in baseball is becoming more and more rare. In 2014, 34 starters threw at least 200 innings and 66 pitched at least 180 innings. In 2018, those numbers dropped to 13 and 32 respectively. So those that do get to around 200 innings consistently, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, etc., carry greater value for fantasy baseball owners.
Through Aug. 11 last year, Trevor Bauer had a 2.21 ERA and 214 strikeouts over 166 innings (11.6 K/9) while allowing a .581 OPS to opposing hitters. Then he was struck in the leg by a line drive off the bat of Jose Abreu, and missed 5-6 weeks before pitching 9.1 innings in the waning days of the regular season.
Bauer led the AL in FIP last year (2.44), while leading the majors with 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings and finishing fourth with an 11.34 K/9 rate. Along with a virtually unrivaled mix of pitches, Bauer has had a steady uptick in fastball velocity (95 MPH in 2018) and Swinging Strike rate (13.3 percent last year), while also inducing more swings and less contact outside the strike zone. Of particular note last year is a dramatic increase in slider usage, while using his worst pitch (sinker) nearly half as often.
Bauer is not an incredibly ground ball-heavy pitcher (43 percent for his career; 44.5 percent last year), and his home run/fly ball rate (6.2 percent in 2018) is sure to see correction toward his career norm (11 percent).
Bauer never had an ERA below 3.00 before last year, and he has only topped 180 innings once (190 innings in 2016). But as a pitcher who self evaluates, embraces advanced data and adjusts more than most, jumps in K/9 rate, overall K% and K-BB% over the last two seasons stands out for Bauer.
If not for a fluke injury, Bauer would have easily topped 180 innings and at least threatened 200 innings in 2018. He still finished as a top-10 fantasy starter by some measures anyway, and all that stands between him and another level in 2019 is getting to that 200-inning threshold. As the ninth starting pitcher being drafted right now, and a third-round pick (pick No. 32 overall, via Fantasy Pros), there’s even a semblance of value in making Bauer an anchor for your fantasy rotation.
Trevor Bauer 2019 Projection: 15 wins, 3.15 ERA, 32 starts (204 innings), 220 strikeouts
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