In many respects, 2018 could be considered the breakout season for Chris Godwin. After catching 34 passes for 525 yards and one touchdown as a rookie, he had 59 grabs (on 95 targets) for over 800 yards and seven touchdowns. In standard scoring leagues (via Fantasy Pros) that was good for a finish as WR25 (WR27 in PPR).
With the departures of Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson, the Buccaneers are losing 179 targets from 2018. As it relates to Goodwin, the internal hype machine is real.
Interesting parallel from Jason Licht, saying Chris Godwin can play inside much like Larry Fitzgerald did for Arians in Arizona: "I'm not saying he's Larry Fitzgerald by any means yet, but play the role like Larry did in Arizona. That made (Humphries) a little easier to swallow."
Some of those vacated targets will be taken by a healthy O.J. Howard, but there’s nothing stopping Godwin from being the unchecked No. 2 wide receiver in what should be a pretty high-volume passing attack once again this year. Breshad Perriman is the only veteran wide receiver the Buccaneers signed, though they did bring in promising prospect Anthony Johnson as an undrafted free agent.
At 6-foot-1 and 209 pounds, Godwin doesn’t necessarily physically profile as a receiver who would be a red zone maven or particularly overmatch defensive backs. But he accounted for 18.6 percent of Tampa Bay’s red zone targets and 28.6 percent of the team’s end zone targets with a contested catch rate (47.8 percent) that was 14th-best among wide receivers last year.
As shown by C.D. Carter of 4for4 Fantasy Football, the history of Arians’ offenses doesn’t put Godwin in line to join Mike Evans as a potential 100-catch receiver this year. But a new set of career-highs are in the offing.
It’s still early, but Godwin’s ADP (via Fantasy Football Calculator) has not gotten crazy. He’s currently WR22 (pick 5.06) in 12-team standard and PPR leagues (pick 5.05). His ADP has been a little more turbulent in PPR over the last month, albeit within a handful of picks, but it has landed back on the same spot.
Goodwin was nearly a top-20 fantasy wide receiver last year, while functioning as the No. 3 receiver for Tampa Bay. Even if the defense improves and Jameis Winston isn’t throwing quite as much, Goodwin will benefit from increased volume working out of the slot and he’ll surely see some snaps on the outside.
I’m not willing to go as far as Yahoo’s Andy Behrens, who has pointed to Godwin as a candidate to lead the NFL in receptions this year. But a solid WR2 finish is a foregone conclusion, with real potential for a push into high-end WR2/low-end WR1 range regardless of scoring format. All the ingredients for a genuine third-year breakout are here.
2019 Projection: 90 receptions for 1,110 yards, 8 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 90%
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