After an injury-hampered rookie season, Mike Williams had 10 touchdowns as he played all 16 games last year. He averaged 15.4 yards per catch, and 10.1 yards per target, with nine of his touchdowns in the red zone on 14 targets in that area of the field (12 end zone targets). That’s good for 21.2 percent of his targets (66) for the season in the red zone, and his 10 receiving touchdowns accounted for 23.2 percent of his total catches.
Williams topped all wide receivers last year with 83.7 percent of his catches going for first downs. Via Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception metrics he had a 84.6 percent contest catch rate, along with a 79.4 percent success rate against zone coverage (h/t to Fantasy Footballers.com). Williams also became just the second player to ever have a 10-plus touchdown season on less than 70 targets.
Other deeper numbers from last year shine extra positivity on Williams’ 2019 fantasy outlook.
Over the last two seasons, Tyrell Williams saw 30% of #Chargers deep targets and 20% of their air yards (both second-most on team). Mike Williams' 2019 fantasy upside is mouthwatering after quietly leading LAC in red-zone looks last year.
The issue with Williams last year was consistency. He had one catch or fewer in six games, including four games in a row from Week 6-Week 10 with touchdowns in two of those games to salvage a bit of fantasy grace. Widen out to two or fewer catches, and it becomes nine games.
Some of that inconsistency can be chalked up to volume, as Williams had five or more targets in a game just six times in 2018. He topped 60 yards in four of them, with a touchdown in three of those (two touchdowns twice).
The departure of Tyrell Williams opens up 65 targets from last season in the Chargers’ passing game. Tight end Hunter Henry is sure to get some of those as he returns fully from a torn ACL, and he’ll get a solid chunk of red zone looks too.
Keenan Allen is the Chargers’ high-volume wide receiver, and running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler combined for 89 receptions in 2018. So there are plenty of mouths to feed, but Williams will be heavily involved too.
Williams is being drafted in line with his finish last year (WR20 in standard scoring), as WR21 right now (12-team standard scoring leagues-Fantasy Football Calculator). He is knocked down a bit in full-point PPR, as WR26 by Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP (WR32 finish last year in PPR).
With more targets coming naturally to foster another uptick in catches and yards, Williams has low-end WR1 ceiling this year in fantasy. But he’s most likely to settle in essentially where he was last year, as a top-20 wide receiver in standard scoring with a boost into low-end WR2 range in PPR formats based on the increased volume.
Mike Williams 2019 Projection: 70 receptions for 950 yards, 9 TD
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