2019 Fantasy Football Profile: Mitch Trubisky

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears

2018 Stats: 3,223 yards, 24 TD, 12 INT; 68 carries for 421 yards, 3 TD

Adding talent around a second-year quarterback has become an NFL template, and the Chicago Bears did it with Mitch Trubisky last year. An offensive-minded head coach in Matt Nagy also helped a lot, as Trubisky made dramatic strides across the board.

Trubisky missed two games with a shoulder injury, on his way to finishing as QB15. Two more games at his per-game average in fantasy points, and he would have been a top-10 fantasy quarterback. His 421 rushing yards (fifth-most among quarterbacks) with three touchdowns on the ground was a nice boost.

In three games from Week 4-Week 7, with a Week 5 bye in there, here are Trubisky’s stat lines

Week 4, at Tampa Bay: 19-for-26, 354 yards, 6 TD; 53 rushing yards-43.5 fantasy points (ESPN scoring)
Week 6, at Miami: 22-for-31, 316 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT; 47 rushing yards-27.3 fantasy points (ESPN scoring)
Week 7, vs. New England: 26-for-50, 333 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT; 81 rushing yards, 1 TD-31.4 fantasy points (ESPN scoring)

These were his three best fantasy weeks of the season, with Week 8 against the New York Jets (16-for-29, 220 yards, 2 TD; 51 rushing yards) as his only other week above 20 fantasy points (21.9). Over half of his passing touchdowns (13 of 24) came over these four weeks, which were also four of his seven multiple passing touchdown games for the season as well. From Week 4-Week 8, Trubisky was QB3 in fantasy scoring (No. 1, among quarterbacks, in fantasy points per game over that span).

In his other 10 games, he topped 250 passing yards once.

In his final seven games last year, Trubisky failed to get to 200 passing yards four times. He was QB21 in fantasy scoring over that span, with 36 of his 104.8 fantasy points (ESPN scoring) over that span coming in a single game (Week 10, Detroit Lions).

Scheme and supporting cast were huge for Trubisky last year, covering up an elevated, bottom tier interception rate (2.8 percent;11th worst in the league) and an off-target rate of 19 percent (seventh-worst).

https://twitter.com/PFF_Eric/status/1136992308208054272

Trubisky’s rushing production raises his fantasy floor automatically. He’s widely ranked as a QB2 right now, in the 13-16 range, which is where he should be. Strength of schedule is easily dismissed from this corner, but Score.com’s strength of schedule matrix (ninth-easiest) and Fantasy Pros’ strength of schedule measuring (fourth-easiest) look favorably on Trubisky for 2019.

Trubisky’s current ADP, at QB22 and pick 12.12 in 12-team leagues (via Fantasy Football Calculator), points to a semblance of value to be had. If he can be more consistent, a push to a low-end QB1 finish is possible. But drafting him as a QB2 and using him in favorable matchups or where the game script is likely to favor passing, will be the best way to avoid Trubisky’s inevitable dud games.

Mitch Trubisky 2019 Projection: 3,710 passing yards, 25 TD, 13 INT, 65 carries for 385 rushing yards, 3 TD

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