2019 Fantasy Football Range of Outcomes: Devonta Freeman

Last year was a lost one for Devonta Freeman, as an early knee issue gave way to a foot issue and then a groin issue that required surgery and led to him being put on IR. He played in just two games, totaling 14 carries for 68 yards with five receptions for 23 yards.

All indications heading into the start of training camp are Freeman is fully healthy. With the departure of Tevin Coleman in free agency, he is the unquestioned No. 1 back for the Falcons.

When Freeman was out last year, Ito Smith finished with 90 carries for 315 yards (3.5 yards per carry) and four touchdowns along with 27 catches for 152 yards as a rookie last year. He’s the favorite to be No. 2 on the depth chart, with rookie fifth-round pick Qadree Ollison, fellow holdover Brian Hill and free agent signing Kenjon Barner in the mix at the start of camp.

In 2015 Freeman was the highest-scoring running back in fantasy football via standard and PPR scoring, followed by finishes as RB6 and RB13 in 2016 and 2017. So there’s some legit upside here.

Let’s go through the best and worst-case fantasy scenarios for Freeman in 2019.

Devonta Freeman: Best-Case Scenario

Healthy for all 16 games, Freeman is not sapped by the litany of lower body injuries from 2018 and is able to push into 275-300 touch territory. His red zone usage from 2016-17 (102 total carries; 31 total targets) returns naturally on some level, fostering his scoring prowess (11 rushing touchdowns in both of the aforementioned seasons). All in all, a top 5-10 finish among running backs.

Projection: 230 carries for 1,120 yards, 9 TD; 55 receptions for 410 yards, 1 TD

Devonta Freeman: Worst-Case Scenario

Sapped by multiple knee injuries and last year’s foot and groin issues, Freeman struggles to stay on the field and be particularly effective when he is. Smith takes some significant work away as a result, and the rookie Ollison perhaps get some goal line run too. There’s no severe, season-ending injury, but Freeman is featured on the injury report weekly.

Projection: 190 carries for 835 yards, 5 TD; 36 receptions for 290 yards, 0TD

My best-case would have put Freeman at RB9 in full point PPR last year and RB8 in standard scoring. My worst-case would have placed him at RB21 in PPR and RB24 in standard scoring.

Best Case Scenario Percentage: 20%
Worst Case Scenario Percentage: 70%
Somewhere Between: 10%

Freeman’s current ADP (via Fantasy Football Calculator) skews toward my worst case as RB18 in 12-team standard and RB17 in full-point PPR. But there’s an extra measure of added risk in using a mid-to late third-round pick on Freeman, when there will be more bankable options on the board across multiple positions.

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