2019 Fantasy Football Range Of Outcomes: Le’Veon Bell

When we last saw Le’Veon Bell, he led the league in carries (321) with over 1,900 total yards (1,291 rushing), 85 receptions and 11 total touchdowns (nine rushing). Of course that was in 2017, as he did not sign the franchise tag for a second time with the Pittsburgh Steelers last year and wound up sitting out the entire season. Fantasy owners who drafted him highly and didn’t find a way to get James Conner too are still feeling that burn.

There are no more contract concerns for Bell, as he signed a four-year, $52.5 million contract ($35 million guaranteed) with the New York Jets this offseason. Optimists will say he has also saved a year of wear-and-tear on his body, entering his age-27 season.

Make no mistake though, Bell’s new situation is not as good as his previous one. Sam Darnold is a promising young quarterback, but he’s no Ben Roethlisberger at this point. Robby Anderson is a useful receiver, but Antonio Brown is in the elite class at the position. And let’s not forget a substantial downgrade in offensive line, as the Steelers’ top-notch unit allowed Bell to use his patient running style to rip off chunks of yardage.

Due to injuries, suspension, sitting out a meaningless Week 17 or a contract impasse, Bell has played all 16 games just once in his career. Having just missed a season, there are inherent durability concerns.

Let’s go through the best and worst case scenarios for Bell in 2019, and I’ll put a percentage on the chance of each happening.

Le’Veon Bell: Best Case Scenario

Healthy for all 16 games, Bell gets what had been his typical touch volume and finishes as a top-tier running back in fantasy. He’s a legit dual threat, as he has been, with passing game production to help offset any potential drop in production on the ground.

Projection: 290 carries for 1,220 yards, 8 TD; 72 receptions for 550 yards, 2 TD

Le’Veon Bell: Worst-Case Scenario

After sitting out a season, Bell struggles to be in football shape, battles injuries and misses a few games. We’re talking soft tissue injuries, like hamstrings, calves, etc. The drop-off in supporting cast is notable, and stifles Bell as opposing defenses hone in on him. There’s no repeating the draft day disaster he was in 2018, but with actually being on the field this comes close.

There are some indications Jets head coach Adam Gase wants to limit Bell’s workload, but time will tell if that comes to fruition or if it’s somewhat forced by Bell having trouble with conditioning.

Projection: 220 carries for 800 yards, 6 TD, 50 receptions for 360 yards, 1 TD

My best-case scenario for Bell would have made him RB6 in both standard and full-point PPR scoring last year. My worst-case scenario would have had him at RB21 in standard and RB14 in full-point PPR (replacing Kenyan Drake in each, as a comparison). It’s worth noting Drake played under, and was underused, by Gase in Miami.

So my scenarios are essentially the difference between a legit, just outside the top-five RB1 and somewhere in the RB2 range. Bell’s ADP in 12-team standard scoring (via Fantasy Football Calculator) is RB7 (pick 1.09), with a matching RB7 ADP in full PPR (pick 1.11). So mock drafters are tilting toward the best case.

Best Case Scenario Percentage: 55%
Worst Case Scenario Percentage: 45%

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