2020 Fantasy Football: Week 11 Start n Sits

Teams on a bye this week: Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, and San Francisco 49ers

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME

The rematch of Week 7, that the Arizona Cardinals won in overtime 37-24

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 57.5 O/U, SEAHAWKS 3 FAVORITE

START: WIDE RECEIVER, CHRISTIAN KIRK, CARDINALS: In the Week 7 game, Kirk was targeted eight times for five receptions, two touchdowns and 37 yards. Unfortunately, the Seahawks defense has not gotten much better as they are still giving up the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (35.6).

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, KENYAN DRAKE, CARDINALS: Drake did not see the end zone in their last match-up and only averaged 2.4 yards per carry. He has since upped his game averaging 6.3 yards per carry on 16 rushing attempts in the Week 10 Hail Mary game. There are reports that Drake was “limited in practice” but those same reports were out last week also before he was on the field for 52% of the offensive snaps. As this game is on Thursday and not Sunday monitor his status closely.

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, DAVID MOORE, SEAHAWKS: Not sure who broke Russell Wilson or if this game will fix him, but the ones who suffer are the wide receivers. Moore was targeted three times in Week 7 for three receptions and 54 yards. Since then he has consistently been targeted three times with the lone exception, Week 8 against the Buffalo Bills where he had six targets, four receptions one touchdown and 71 yards. Moore is clearly WR3 in this offense, but when one and two are getting any production, is there hope for three?

SUNDAY EARLY GAMES

Embed from Getty Images

TENNESSEE TITANS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS, 48.5 O/U, RAVENS 6 FAVORITE

Both teams limping into the contest after a loss. Winds expected to be up to 19mph.

START: RUNNING BACK, J.K. DOBBINS, RAVENS: I am honestly on the fence with this three-headed monster of running backs. The Ravens run the ball on an average of 32.7 times per game (which is second on the NFL), this makes Gus Edwards, Mark Ingram or Dobbins viable. Here is why I choose Dobbins: he has dominated the snap count in the backfield for the last three weeks being on the field for 66%, 56% and 44%, compared to Edwards’ 32%, 38% and 23% and Ingram’s’ 0%, 0% (injured) and 26%. The conundrum comes when it comes to red-zone touches. Last week all three had one red-zone target. The week before Edwards dominated with five red-zone targets to Dobbins three, and Week 8 both had two. This matters because the Titans are allowing touchdowns on 74% of trips made inside the 20-yard line.

Now if Dobbins spends more time on the field in theory he should have more opportunities to cash in on the touchdowns. BUT if Edward’s time is spent coming in to vulture red zone carries this lowers Dobbins floor and raises Edwards. And then there is of course the question of what to do with Ingram and Lamar Jackson who will invariably vulture from both men? AUUGGHHH! This backfield is ridiculous. The moral of the story, I like Dobbins on a hunch, more time equals more opportunity, but if you have Edwards don’t be afraid to play him.

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, WILLIE SNEAD: Some are punting the Ravens’ wide receivers because of his lack of production. Last week with the weather was a bit of an aberration, but it is true they are not producing as we would have hoped. That can actually be said for the entire passing game of the Ravens. Jackson ranks 27th in passing yards (1513) and 26th in completion percentage (62.9).

The good news is that Snead is the more efficient of his time than Marquise Brown and the Ravens need to get back on track in this game. Snead has been on the field for 68%, 53% and 72% of the offensive snaps in the last three games. Brown has been on the field for 94%, 86% and 94% of the snaps. However, Snead has out-targeted Brown 7-6, 4-5, 7-2, respectively. Last week in the storm, Snead led all Baltimore receivers with 64 yards and two touchdowns. It also helps that the Titans are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position.

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, COREY DAVIS, TITANS: In the last three weeks Ryan Tannehill has attempted 27,27 and 30 passes. The Titans have lost two out of three of those games including the game in which he attempted 30 passes. Last week in the loss to the Indianapolis Colts, Davis had six targets, five receptions 67 yards and zero touchdowns. The Ravens defense is giving up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position.

DETROIT LIONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Injury watch Teddy Bridgewater and Christian McCaffrey.

START: RUNNING BACK, D’ANDRE SWIFT, LIONS: Maybe Matt Patricia had a revelation during their bye week. Or maybe he just realized they drafted Swift for a reason. Whatever, last week Swift out-touched Adrian Peterson 16-4, and Swift had five targets in the passing game. He finished with 149 total yards and a touchdown. Now the Lions will go against a Panthers team that is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position (22.1).

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, MIKE DAVIS, PANTHERS: I am not sure why everyone was on Davis’ bandwagon last week against one of the best teams against the run. But now is the time to hop on. If you listened to the GoingFor2Live Monday night podcast (and you should) you would have heard our very own @TheFantasySportsDoc talk about Christian McCaffrey’s injury, it’s not looking good. This means more Davis time. Now Davis’ production has been spotty, he has not gone over 80 yards since Week 5 and his average rushing yards per game have gone from 5.1 to 1.7. That’s the bad. The good is without both or either Bridgewater/ McCaffrey Davis is the man. And lucky for him he gets to be the man against the team that is giving up the most fantasy points to the running back position (30.4).

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, MARVIN HALL, LIONS: Hall is the replacement for Kenny Golladay. It has been an uneven challenge. In Week 9, he had five targets but trailed six other Lions with three receptions and 28 yards. Last week he had three targets and was third on the team with 61 yards and a touchdown. This week it becomes slightly more challenging as the Panthers are giving up the 10th fewest fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (20.4) and it isn’t hard to imagine those will go to the other Marvin, Marvin Jones.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CLEVELAND BROWNS 47.5 O/U, BROWNS 3.5 FAVORITE

Embed from Getty Images

The weather has dominated the last two games in Cleveland.

START: RUNNING BACK, NICK CHUBB, BROWNS: Chubb is back.  The Cleveland Browns run the ball third-highest percentage in the NFL.  Last week Chubb was on the field for 43% of the offensive snaps, both he and Kareem Hunt had 19 carries, both had over 100 rushing yards and Chubb finished with one rushing touchdown.  There is no reason this duo will not replicate that performance this week against the Eagles’ 26th ranked run defense. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, JALEN REAGOR, EAGLES: The idea that the Eagles will be trailing in this game isn’t too far fetched.  Reagor was targeted a team-high seven times last week.  He was on the field for 88% of the offensive snaps.  Wentz is an incredible dumpster fire…but last week he managed to get through the game with a 72.8% completion percentage, not tossing an interception.  This bodes well as Cleveland is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, CARSON WENTZ, EAGLES: This is less about the Browns giving up 19.5 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position and more about Wentz.  Wentz has lost his mojo.  Last week against the Giants he completed one pass of more than 20 yards.  He did not pass for an interception, but he also did not have a touchdown on his 37 pass attempts.  And while you can normally count on him to get you some points in the ground game, he rushed two times for four yards.  

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS, 48.5 O/U, PATRIOTS 2 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, DAMIEN HARRIS, PATRIOTS: It used to be you couldn’t count on a running back out of the Patriots backfield, but it is much easier to have a running back carousel when you are winning.  That would not be the Patriots of today.  They are coming off a win against the Baltimore Ravens, in which Harris ran for 121 yards on 22 carries.  This week they go against the Texans’ defense that is giving up 5.2 yards per carry and just allowed both Chubb and Hunt to run for over 100 yards against them.  

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, BRANDIN COOKS, TEXANS: The once feared Patriots secondary is no more.  The Patriots have allowed 8.2 yards per passing attempt which is the second-highest in the season.  Cooks had a bad week last week, 6-39, on eight targets.  There was a lot going against him like the weather and the fact that quarterback Deshaun Watson has a 98.9 QBR on the road.  The good is that Watson has a QBR 105.4 at home.  Cooks will be playing in a dome.  And it is more than possible that Stephon Gilmore will be spending a lot of time with Will Fuller. 

SIT: ANY PATRIOTS WIDE RECEIVER NOT NAMED JAKOBI MEYERS: This is sort of like a punt play.  I guess the question is, is there a healthy wide receiver on the team not named Meyers?  The Patriots are winning because of their ground game and short passes to both Meyers and Rex Burkhead.  There really is no one else on the Patriots with legitimate wide receiver status.  So look for Cam Newton to run and pass the ball on short passes all day long inside the dome and lament on the fact that the Patriots really are without solid pieces around Newton. 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, 46.5 O/U, STEELERS 10 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, JAMES CONNER, STEELERS: There might be something physically wrong with Conner as he hasn’t quite been the runner we are used to seeing.  Last week he averaged 2.8 yards per carry on 13 carries and the week before he averaged 2.4 on nine carries.  There is reason for optimism because he is still getting the majority of the carries, and if any game screams SMASH SPOT, this is it.  The Jaguars look to be behind for most of the game, letting the Steelers rely on the running game.  It is also worth mentioning that the Jaguars are giving up the ninth most fantasy points per game to the running back position (20.9).

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, D.J. CHARK, JACKSONVILLE: In every statistical category where the Jaguars are giving up the most fantasy points per game the Steelers are giving up the least…except at the wide receiver position.  Rookie Tee Higgins gashed the Steelers in Week 10 with 115 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions.  Chark has been the favorite target of quarterback Jake Luton, seeing 12 targets in Week 9 and five targets in Week 10.  Chark led the team in receiving yards last week with 56 although it was Keelan Cole who saw the end zone.  In a game script that sees the Jaguars behind look for Chark to be targeted often. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, JAKE LUTON, JACKSONVILLE: This is the second time this week I have suggested a wide receiver is a sleeper and their quarterback is a sit.  There is good reason, while Luton may throw continuously to stay in the game, the Steelers’ front seven is relentless.  Last week against another rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, they had four sacks, nine quarterback hits and four batted passes.  The Steelers blitz more than any other team in the league and it isn’t even close.  Luton has played well in his last two games but the defenses aren’t even comparable and he was intercepted twice and sacked five times.  It is conceivable the Steelers equal that in this one game. 

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, 50.4 O/U, SAINTS 5 FAVORITE

Embed from Getty Images

START: WIDE RECEIVER, EMMANUEL SANDERS, SAINTS: So Drew Brees will be out for at least two weeks, and Sean Payton hasn’t announced who his starting quarterback is although everyone assumes it will be Jameis Winston.  This could not work out better for the Saints if Winston is in fact under center.  The Falcons are allowing the third-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position per game and we know that Winston likes to sling it downfield.  With a 50.4 projected outcome both teams will be slinging the ball, and with the Falcons allowing 310.3 passing yards per game, the Saints wide receivers should feast. 

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, ADAM TRAUTMAN, SAINTS: Last week Trautman was on the field for 46% of the offensive snaps compared to 36% for Jared Cook.  Trautman had one red zone target to two for Cook.  Now it is the Winston Show and while Cook is the safer option, Trautman is that DFS dart throw that just might win you one. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, RUSSELL GAGE, FALCONS: When last seen Gage was on the field when Calvin Ridley was not.  In a game in which Matt Ryan attempted 35 passes, Gage was targeted six times for two receptions and 11 yards.  That made two weeks in a row Gage totaled two receptions and seven weeks he has not seen the end zone.  With Ridley expected back for this shoot-out it is safer to depend on Hayden Hurst, Julio Jones and Ridley. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ WASHINGTON, 46.5 O/U, WASHINGTON FAVORED 2 

Embed from Getty Images

START: TIGHT END, LOGAN THOMAS, WASHINGTON: Thomas is in a resurgence with Alex Smith under center.  In the last two weeks, he has seen six targets in both games.  Smith is relying on short passes, as his average yards per attempt is hoovering around 7.2 yards.  And Thomas has been on the field for 100% and 99% of the offensive snaps since Smith has returned.  The Bengals defense is also allowing the second-most fantasy points to the tight end position. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, J.D. MCKISSIC, WASHINGTON: I will continually tout McKissic until he is rostered in more than 50% of the leagues.  McKissic is the winner with Smith under center.  In the past two weeks, he has been on the receiving end of 29 targets from Smith.  And as a bonus in half of those they are playing him in the slot, so you are getting running back position with wide receiver production. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, A.J. GREEN, BENGALS: It is time to call it, you should not have Green on your roster, much less as a consideration in your fantasy football line-up.  In Week 8 before they bye week, Green was targeted five times (third-most on the team) only to finish with two receptions and 19 yards.  Last week he was targeted five times for zero receptions and zero yards.  Stop.  

SUNDAY LATE GAMES

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ DENVER BRONCOS, 45 O/U, DOLPHINS 3 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, SALVON AHMED, DOLPHINS: Who thought we would be saying that right about now? The undrafted rookie has stepped up and now gets to go against a Broncos defense that just got gashed for 203 total rushing yards by Josh Jacobs, Devontae Booker and Derek Carr.  Of course, Jacobs led with 112 and two rushing touchdowns, but who is counting?  The Dolphins had 32 rushing attempts last week and 25 passing attempts.  Ahmed carried the ball 21 times for 85 yards and a touchdown.  It is hard to say how the altitude is going affect anyone, but Ahmed played in Washington, so he should acclimate just fine. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, PHILLIP LINDSAY, BRONCOS: Everyone knows the Broncos are spiraling downward.  It is also common knowledge that they cannot get off to a good start and well maybe that is the fault of quarterback Drew Lock.  Now they meet a Dolphins team that is trending upward fast and hard.  So the remedy for the Broncos maybe to hold on to the ball as long as possible and that would require utilizing the run game.  That just also happens to be the Dolphins’ weak spot.  They are allowing 128.1 rushing yards per game.  

Melvin Gordon has doubled the snap count of Lindsay (319-130).  Gordon has also played in two more games than Lindsay.  If healthy, Lindsay is the more productive of the two. Lindsay is averaging 5.47 yards per attempt with eight targets.  Gordon is averaging 4.1 yards per attempt with 29 targets.  Monitor Lindsay’s status for game time. You may have to go with Gordon. The run is the option in Denver.

SIT: QUARTERBACK, DREW LOCK, BRONCOS: Lock has thrown 10 interceptions in five games including four last week.  His completion percentage is 55% and he has tossed only seven touchdowns to the 10 interceptions.  He may also have some kind of rib injury.  Sit him. 

NEW YORK JETS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, 47.5 O/U, CHARGERS 8.5 FAVORITE

START: WIDE RECEIVER, BRESHAD PERRIMAN, JETS: The Jets will be coming off their bye week.  Perhaps they have fixed/adjusted some of the problems?  Either way, they will be going up against the fourth-ranked offense in the NFL.  Perriman seems like a good person to maybe help keep the game competitive.  In their Week 8 meeting against the New England Patriots, he had five receptions for 101 yards and two touchdowns.  

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, LA’MICAL PERINE, JETS: I don’t know, the Chargers defense may or may not be with/out Joey Bosa, it matters.  But either way, you would think that a game play has to involve keeping the fourth-ranked offense off the field (I mean I am no Adam Gase, offensive guru…but).  So Perine who the coaches “promises more touches” should be able to rack up some yards. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, JOSHUA KELLEY, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: You would think against the Jets almost everybody would be in play.  But Kelley has been out of the “must start” for quite some time and Kalen Ballage and slid right in, being coach Anthony Lynn‘s “primary back”.  So until Kelley proves he can hold onto the ball and make himself useful to a Chargers team that is desperate for a win, your fantasy bench is the best place for him. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 51.5 O/U, COLTS 2 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, JONATHAN TAYLOR, COLTS: I know you were expecting Nyheim Hines right here, as you should he too should be started as the Packers are giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to the running back position.  If there was ever a “get right” game for Taylor this one should be it.  Hines out-touched Taylor last week 12-7.  He also had four more targets than Taylor.  But keeping Aaron Rodgers at bay is paramount so you have to figure it is going to be all hands on deck for this one.  That means all the running backs in Indy will be involved.  Last week Taylor was on the field for 24% of the offensive snaps compared to 56% for Hines and 20 % for Jordan Wilkins.  The week before Wilkins was 34%, Hines 34% and Taylor 31%.  This may be Taylor’s last chance to prove his worth.  

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, ALAN LAZARD, PACKERS: Lazard should be coming off IR and on the field for this game.  The Colts defense is sneaky good…like really good which includes giving up sixth-fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position.  But never count out Rodgers and look for him to try and get Lazard back in the game flow. 

SIT: TIGHT END, ROBERT TONYAN, PACKERS: We all wanted Tonyan to be a thing.  The thing is he isn’t.  And instead of a SMASH game he will be going against a Colts defense that is giving up the fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position (8).

DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS, 48 O/U, VIKINGS 7.5 FAVORITE

START: WIDE RECEIVER, CEE DEE LAMB, COWBOYS: The Cowboys are back from their bye week and Andy Dalton should return under center.  The last full game Dalton played was Week 7.  In that game, Lamb was targeted 10 times for seven receptions and 64 yards. It helps that the Vikings are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position and are especially vulnerable to the slot. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, JUSTIN JEFFERSON, VIKINGS: We all know that the Vikings don’t throw the ball much, but when they do Jefferson is usually in the mix.  Week 10 he was targeted a team-high 10 times for eight receptions and 135 yards.  And oh yeah, the Cowboys are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. 

SIT: TIGHT END, KYLE RUDOLPH, VIKINGS: Remember the Vikings are not a pass-first team, once they get ahead (by passing liberally to Jefferson) they will revert back to the Dalvin Cook show (or they may even start with that).  Rudolph had a good night against the Chicago Bears ( five targets, four receptions, 63 yards) with Irv Smith Jr. out, but the fumble and his inconsistent output suggests there are better tight end starts this week. 

SUNDAY NIGHT GAME

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, 56.5 O/U, CHIEFS 7 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, DEREK CARR, RAIDERS: This is a rematch of the game played in Week 5 that the Raiders won 40-32.  In that game, Carr had 347 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and one sack.  Surely, revenge is on the Chief’s mind as that is their only loss of the season.  In a game that has a 56.5 projected total points, both quarterbacks are going to be slinging the ball and well Carr will be strolling into the game with a 69.3% completion percentage having thrown 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, CHIEFS: Edwards-Helaire is a sleeper because of the implied total and the acquisition of Leveon Bell.  Neither should hamper his production.  When they were last seen on the field, Edwards-Helaire was on the field for 40% of the offensive snaps to Bell’s 31%.  Neither proved efficient in the run game as it was a passing fest, but Edwards-Helaire had five targets to Bell’s one.  Now let’s see what the game after the bye week brings. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, DEVONTAE BOOKER, RAIDERS: I believe that Booker is an integral part of the offense, last week he managed to get 81 yards and two touchdowns without putting a dent in Josh Jacobs production.  The problem is that Booker is an integral part of the run game as he was only on the receiving end of one target last week.  This game projects to see a lot of passing (Carr attempted 31 passes last time) and that means more Jacobs less Booker. 

MONDAY NIGHT GAME

LOS ANGELES RAMS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, 48 O/U, BUC 3.5 FAVORITE

Embed from Getty Images

START: TIGHT END, TYLER HIGBEE, RAMS: It on paper appears the Rams have an embarrassment of riches in almost every position.  The running back room is a three-headed monster.  Do you start, Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods at wide receiver? And then there are the two tight ends, Higbee and Gerald Everett.  At the beginning of the season, it was all about Higbee.  Then Everett made a surprise appearance and it became unpredictable.  Now you have Higbee back in the circle of trust with being on the field for 84% of the snaps last week, six targets, three receptions and 60 yards.  It also helps that the Bucs have given up touchdowns to the Panthers’ tight end Colin Thompson, Saints tight end Josh Hill and the Raiders’ tight end Darren Waller in the last four weeks. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, LEONARD FOURNETTE, BUCS: Part of this is playing the Bruce Arians running back roulette game.  One week it is Ronald Jones and the next week it is Fournette.  Last week it was Jones, so…. Also, the only one to score on the Rams last week was running back Alex Collins.  I am thinking the Bucs will be a little more productive than the Seahawks were, but I like those odds. 

SIT: LOS ANGELES RAMS RUNNING BACKS: I still don’t understand the belief that Mike Davis would be productive against the Bucs theory last week.  The Bucs have the number one defense against opponents rushing yards per game 76.6.  They are the second-ranked defense against opponents rushing attempts per game 23.1 and have allowed an average of 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game.  This is a game with two really good defenses.  But the Bucs run defense is exceptionally good. 

 

Good Luck!

 

 

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.