AFC Championship: D/ST and Coach Breakdown

The final part of this AFC Championship game breakdown, and honestly the one that has me very curious is the chess match of the defense of both the Broncos and the Patriots as they compete for a Super Bowl berth. There is certainly some talented players on each side, and both defenses feature very young players that are already among the tops at their position. Despite the fact Denver has the top rated defense, there are also player for New England that pose serious problems for the Broncos, and of course don’t forget about that guy Bill Belichick who along with defensive coordinator Matt Patricia , is installing a game plan as we speak. No matter what though, these defenses will be good for years to come with the coaching, scouting and players each team currently possesses.

Defensive Line:

The defensive lines are both stout and have very good players throughout. For the Patriots, they play with four down defensive lineman and usually go with from left to right: Rob Ninkovich, Alan Branch, Malcolm Brown, and Chandler Jones as the front. The two ends in Jones and Ninkovich are fantastic and very solid against the run and pass. Jones specifically improved tremendously against the run this year, and that along with his 12.5 sacks (5th in the NFL) earned him a spot on the Pro Bowl. This unit also has good depth with pass rushing force Akiem Hicks coming in on the inside, as well as Jabaal Sheard playing significant snaps, and being perhaps the best pass rusher on the Patriots despite Jones’ sack numbers.

For the Broncos they have a sturdy three down lineman with four linebackers, two of whom rush from a two point stance, which is very typical of a Wade Phillips defense. From left to right the Broncos feature: Derek Wolfe, Sylvester Williams at nose tackle, and Malik Jackson, with Antonio Smith providing a boost as a sub. Jackson and Wolfe are the stars here as they have both really come on, and could both command high salaries (Wolfe just signed an extension for an average annual value of nine million per year). They are great in both the run and pass, but Wolfe specifically has really burst on the scene as a rusher.

Had Jones been completely healthy for the Patriots I would have given the edge that way as they have depth and a solid rotation of pass rusher, and honestly, I couldn’t blame you if you still went that way, but with the Patriots losing some depth if Jones cannot play or if he is too hurt to be effective edge Broncos.

Advantage: Broncos

Linebackers:

This is another position where I assumed I was going to give the edge to the Patriots as they feature some of the best young linebackers in the league. Everyone knows Jamie Collins, the athletic freak who can do it all, but the underrated Dont’a Hightower really controls that defense and makes them go. Hightower is one of the best overall linebackers in the NFL and he doesn’t really get his due. He is also tough as nails as he is playing through a knee injury and played through a torn labrum last year. Both Hightower and Collins can cover, rush and read defenses making them an unbelievable force. Rutgers product Jonathan Freeny also plays significant snaps as he is better against the run, than in pass coverage. Jerod Mayo was a part-time player, but was just placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury.

On the other side the Broncos feature some serious star power on the edges with DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller rushing the quarterback. That duo put up a combined 18.5 sacks this season for the Broncos and that was with Ware banged up most of the season. The other two linebackers are Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan, with rookie first rounder Shane Ray, as well as another rookie Shaquil Barret  and rotating in on the edges. This is a ferocious group who can really put pressure on the quarterback, but struggles a little bit in coverage to me.

This is another situation where if the Patriots had been completely healthy I would give them a slight, slight edge, but with Collins injury status unknown, Mayo who is one of the best run stuffers on the team on injured reserve, and Hightower still banged up, I have to give the edge to the Broncos with Miller and Ware on the edge, and Marshall being solid on the inside.

Advantage: Broncos

Defensive Backs:

This is one where even I immediately wrote down Broncos as the edge, but to me if you dig deeper it becomes much closer, and I actually think the Patriots have a very small edge. If this were just about corners the Broncos would win as they possess two of the best corners in the league in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr., as well as third corner Bradley Roby who is solid in his own right. However the Patriots have pro bowler Malcolm Butler, as well as Logan Ryan, who despite getting torched last week, has been playing some solid football, even shutting down Demaryius Thomas the last time these two teams met. Digging deeper the Patriots also have nickelback Justin Coleman, and Leonard Johnson who have both had their moments.

Those matchups are close, but they still slightly favor the Broncos due to the top two guys being top 10 players at their position. However at safety the Patriots hold an enormous advantage and that tips the scales in their favor. Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung are two of the top players at the safety position in the game with McCourty denying deep passes and reading the quarterback, and Chung able to shut down any tight end he faces. The Patriots also have Duron Harmon who has played exception as the deep man when McCourty plays at the line and covers.

Looking on the other side and Darian Stewart and T.J. Ward do not have the same punch. Ward is very good against the run, but for all he does in the box, he gets torched in coverage routinely. In addition with the loss of David Bruton earlier, the depth has been thinned and no longer is manageable as Josh Bush and Shiloh Keo are not very good.

The safety play is what separates the two teams.

Advantage: Patriots

Special Teams:

When looking at the special teams, there is a very distinct advantage in New England’s corner. Stephen Gostkowski. Gostkowski is the best kicker in the league, and he can hit from very far out with deadly accuracy. Gostkowski was the only kicker in the league to not miss an extra point, while kicking a minimum of 30 extra points. This isn’t to discount Brandon McManus who has been pretty good, and basically saved the Broncos against the Steelers, but Gostkowski is that good.

The return games now once again favor the Patriots with the return of Edelman on punt returns, as well as the loss of Omar Bolden for the Broncos, as Edelman is one of the games best. However there is a chance Edelman doesn’t stand back there to avoid risk, in which case Danny Amendola would be back there, and although he isn’t on Edelman’s level he is very sure handed and tough to tackle.

As far as punters, Ryan Allen seems to hold a small advantage over Britton Colquitt as he had more punts dropped inside the 20-yard line. (Allen had 31, Colquitt had 22) Despite the advantage going to Allen though, neither punter is great and the difference between the two is negligible.

In coverage the difference between the two teams are the gunners are rookie Brandon King has made a name for himself as a special teams ace with speed, size, and smarts, while the elite Matthew Slater (recently named to another Pro Bowl as a special teamer) is on the other side.

Advantage: Patriots

Coaches:

This is one is not even close no matter how you slice it. Belichick is the best coach in the league, and one of the best ever, if not the best. You have to admire the job Kubiak has done handling the demise of Peyton Manning and helping this team miraculously get the first seed, but there is no doubt Belichick is in another league as he routinely churns out division titles, AFC Championship game appearances, and all of this in the free agent era, where it is harder than ever to build a dynasty.

There isn’t a word to describe how big this gap is.

Advantage: Patriots

Overall: Patriots win 3-2

The Patriots win this section due to their superior special teams players, better coach and the elite play of the safeties this year. The Broncos no doubt have a lethal pass rush, and having Ware in this game (he was out last time) will help Miller on the other side avoid double teams. Derek Wolfe will also be able to feast on right guard Shaq Mason, while Josh Kline at left guard will struggle with Malik Jackson. This defensive battle against two hall of fame quarterbacks will be extremely interesting.

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