Best Fit for Five Remaining MLB Free Agents

As December faded and the 2016 was about to begin there were clearly some surprising players still left to the baseball free agent market as Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Alex Gordon, and Scott Kazmir all had still not found homes. A lot has changed since then though, as all of the aforementioned free agents found homes, and most of them signed for what many would have predicted before free agency started.

Despite those players finding homes, however, there are still a number of very solid free agents left on the free agent market who can provide a ton of value to teams in position to land them. One serious issue that has plagued players in the past and with some of these players mentioned is the draft pick compensation attached to them. Although unfortunate, this is a product of the system, but that is for another day.

These are five players who I believe can still provide value for teams, as well as the team that I deem is the best fit, a team I believe will ultimately sign them, and what I predict they will receive on the market.

Dexter Fowler, CF, Chicago Cubs:

Fowler is a pretty good center fielder and is a good fit on a number of clubs. He will be 30 when the season starts, which means he still has a couple of years in his prime before his production begins to taper off. Last year on the Cubs Fowler slugged 17 homers which is just three less than he had the two previous years combined. Some of that can attributed to the confines of Wrigley Field, as his extra-base hit numbers were well above what he had produced the previous years (54 last year, 33 the year before).

Despite the spike in extra base hits, Fowler struggled with his average as it dipped from .276 the year prior to .250 and his on-base percentage also dropped from .375 to .346. Fowler also declined slightly by defensive metrics, despite his speed still resulting in 20 stolen bases (but in 27 chances). Despite the slippage and the extra base hits will most likely help make up for some of the lost value, even with slight decline if he moves to a less friendly hitters park.

Best Fit: White Sox: The White Sox are the pick here due to their less than ideal grouping of Avisail Garcia and Melky Cabrera, both of whom leave a lot to be desired on defense, and haven’t shown great at the plate recently. Fowler makes the lineup deeper and despite his decline in defense, would be an upgrade over both of those players. Another plus, Fowler would be a corner outfielder with Adam Eaton manning center field, making it likely his metrics would improve.

Signs with: Cleveland Indians: Fowler is a fit for a lot of teams who need outfield help, but the question is cost and if teams think his power surge is real or if it was due to the confines of Wrigley. The Indians jump in and grab a solid player at a reasonable price.

Projected Contract: 3 years, $36 million with $6 million in incentives.

Howie Kendrick, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers:

Kendrick is an interesting case as he is 32 and tied to draft pick compensation, but also have produced a solid batting average line his whole career, with his lowest batting average to date being .279. Kendrick has been a good defender at second, but last year he saw a slip in his quickness and although he only made five errors, he also didn’t get to as many balls.

No doubt the thing holding Kendrick back is the fact he has been tied to draft pick compensation as he isn’t a big splash free agent, meaning teams will be less likely to surrender draft picks for a guy that won’t generate a ton of interest among the fan base. Another plus about Kendrick though is his ability to limit strikeouts and make contact a lot of the time. He can still be a solid second baseman, even at 32 and with the decline in quickness, and his high contact rate should net him a solid on base percentage and average.

Best Fit: Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have gone all in this offseason after signing Zack Greinke to a mega deal and trading first overall selection and top prospect Dansby Swanson (among others including outfield Ender Inciarte) away in the Shelby Miller deal. Their current second baseman Chris Owings is still young, but hit just .227 last season, and with the money spent already, they should consider the solid Kendrick.

Signs with Diamondbacks: Similar to Freese, who I mention below, I do not see a ton of teams that are a fit for Kendrick, but the Diamondbacks make too much sense and have already talked about him.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $21 million with a team option for the third year that can become a player option if he hits certain benchmarks.

Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals:

Desmond is a weird one who is still left in the free agent market as in 2012 he put up a .292 batting average along with 25 homers, making him look like a future stud at one of the most difficult positions to fill over the past decade. However, his batting average has slowly tapered off after that career year and hit a startling low of .233 last season. Desmond also struggled in the field posting a career high 27 errors last season, both of which have no doubt lowered his value at a position where the last two seasons has seen an emerging crop of shortstops come up through the minors and produce.

Desmond no doubt regrets his rejection of the 7 year and $107 million offer that the Nationals extended him before the 2014 season as he likely won’t come close to that in years. Desmond will be 31 at the beginning of the 2016 season and has more power against lefties than righties, but the drooping average shows a decline the past few years that make it hard to justify giving him a long-term deal. However the power numbers and hope that he could provide close to average defense at short is enough to redeem some value on a short term deal.

Best Fit: Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays have a need at shortstop after seeing Asdrubal Cabrera depart for the Mets this offseason, and although they normally are not ones to spend big money, Desmond is from Florida and is a perfect fit on a short-term deal. The Rays could get a player looking to prove himself, and parlay that into a bigger offer next year, and if the team fades they could trade him to help recoup some lost players in the farm system.

Signs with: White Sox: The White Sox are also a good fit with the offensively sluggish Tyler Saladino manning the position, and they have been in on a few free agents, but have not been willing to spend the money it took to connect on a deal. This time the contract falls within their price range.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $9 million with $3 million in very achievable incentives, and a guarantee he will not be made a qualifying offer.

Yovani Gallardo, P, Texas Rangers:

Gallardo is a solid pitcher who has posted stable results over the years, and last year was no different from the norm for him. Known for his Milwaukee days, Gallardo pitched for the Rangers last year and posted a 13-11 record, along with a 3.42 ERA and a 4.00 FIP in 184.1 innings pitched. That goes right along with his track record as it marked the seventh straight season he made at least 30 starts, pitched at least 180 innings, had an FIP of 4 or lower, and (if you discount one season in which he had a 4.18 ERA) had an ERA under four.

That type of consistency makes him a fit for almost anyone looking for a durable mid to back end of the rotation starter, however the problem is he pitches more to contact now than ever making him a tough sell to teams in hitter-friendly ballparks. More proof of the hard contact he has let up is that Gallardo’s strikeouts per nine innings has gone from 9.0 back in 2012 to just 5.9 last year. He needs the right fit, but with the draft pick attached, it could be tough.

Best Fit: Philadelphia Phillies or San Diego Padres: Both the Phillies and Padres are in the rebuild stage now and both have finally admitted it, with the Padres somewhat coming around to that notion, but also not completely selling out their chances in 2016. However both of these teams have decent ballparks for Gallardo to pitch in (with San Diego much better in that regard), but also teams that could use a stable innings man. Both teams have protected draft picks, and by signing him could ship him off at the deadline for a pitching hungry team if everything works out.

Signs with: Baltimore Orioles: I know Dan Duquette the Orioles decision maker has said he can’t see them giving up their first round pick, but the longer Gallardo sits out there, the more likely he won’t require a substantial contract leaving the Orioles to snatch him for pennies on the dollar. He would provide steady innings, albeit with most likely an ERA over four in that ballpark.

Projected Contract: 3 years, 32 million with incentives to push value closer to $36 million.

David Freese, 3B, Los Angeles Angels:

I understand why people may be down on Freese as he is already 32 years old, and has been inconsistent at times in his career. Freese is perhaps best known for his heroics in the playoffs for the St. Louis Cardinals during their 2011 World Series run, but he still provides close to a .250 or 2.60 average, solid average defense at third base along with 40-50 extra-base hits per year. I know those are not crazy powerful numbers for a guy who plays at one of the corner spots, but he certainly is good enough to be a starting third baseman in either league. Freese has also had some minor injuries during the course of his career as he has missed a combined 93 games over the past three years. In 2015 Freese fared well against right-handed pitching with a .272 average and .752 OPS, while struggling against lefties with just a .212 average and .719 OPS. However the down numbers against lefties can be attributed to an abnormally low BAbip as that average was just .225.

Best Fit: Houston Astros: The Astros have all or nothing slugger Luis Valbuena at third base, but the Astros should protect themselves as although Valbuena hit 25 home runs last season, he had hit just 28 combined the previous two seasons. The Astros have a solid team and David Freese would be a wise pickup for protection, and if nothing else could be a nice bat to pinch hit at the end of games.

Signs with Houston Astros: I don’t see too many other fits for a guy like Freese, and the Astros both have the funds and means to pursue Freese.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $7.5 million with $1.5 million in incentives.

 

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