Contender or Pretender: Threats to Warriors
Heading into this NBA season the most trendy picks to win the NBA title were the Spurs, Cavaliers, Clippers, Bulls, Rockets, and Thunder, with the Thunder, Spurs, and Cavs garnering most of the votes. Another pick that was popular and perhaps the most popular was the Warriors, but nonetheless, no one expected the season and the dominance Golden State has exhibited this season. The Warriors routinely win in blowout fashion allowing them to rest their star players. Currently, as it stands right now, none of their players play more than 34 minutes per game with Draymond Green right at 34 minutes. This season has seen the Warriors go from one of the favorites to win the title to one of the best NBA seasons ever and a very good chance to beat the regular season wins record held by the Chicago Bulls. Their success has people wondering if they can be beat at all when it comes to the playoffs, and if we are witnessing the start of a dynasty as all of their stars are locked up for the next two years, with Stephen Curry due up for big raise.
If the Warriors are to lose in the playoffs it will be at the hands of a very good team, and below I will break down the top three teams (top 3 after GS in the West) in each conference and if they can beat Golden State.
San Antonio Spurs
Why yes: The Spurs may have the most talented starting five in the NBA when everyone is healthy and right. They are also a very deep team, have the best coach in the NBA and have on the greatest frontcourt players to ever set foot on the basketball court playing for them. Throw in their playoff and championship experience and they have all the things you need to dethrone the champs. They also have one of the best and more ascending players in the NBA in Kawhi Leonard who has taken his scoring to a new level while also pairing it with elite defense no matter who he is covering. If anyone can do it, it will be the Spurs.
Why no: The Spurs have had some injury problems this year, and have one big question in Tim Duncan‘s knees. Throw in the fact the Warriors like to downsize making either Duncan or prize free agent acquisition LaMarcus Aldridge sit on the bench or risk having to guard one of the Warriors perimeter players. There is also the sudden decline of Tony Parker causing problems as well as the fact Parker would have to cover either Curry or Klay Thompson which is a huge mismatch.
Status: Contender
Oklahoma City Thunder
Why yes: The easiest answer is that they have two of the top 10 players in the NBA, and arguably even the top five. The Thunder have Kevin Durant who would be able to create a mismatch either draw Draymond Green or Harrison Barnes while Thompson would be covering Russell Westbrook. The Thunder also could create more problems by playing Enes Kanter and Serge Ibaka with them to make Golden State play big with Andrew Bogut limiting their firepower. The Thunder would need contributions from their bench and would need to play better defense than they have been showing, but in a short series with ample rest and the ability to scout one team and having two top 10 players would be tough to stop.
Why no: As said above the Thunder have had lapses on defense and some of that is tied into Kanter playing big minutes considering his a sieve on defense. However, another problem with the Thunder has been the extremely poor shooting of Westbrook, who’s three-point shooting has become non-existent in recent weeks. Throw in the fact Durant has had problems in the last couple of season staying healthy and this could come unraveling at any minute.
Status: Contender
Los Angeles Clippers
Why yes: When looking at the Clippers starting five when fully healthy, you would think that they would be among the favorites to win the title, and would have a couple of finals appearances under their belt. They have all-stars or elite players at their respective positions in three out of the five spots and are complimented with two other players in J.J. Redick and Paul Pierce who have proven they can hit big shots. There is also the scoring machine Jamal Crawford on the bench who despite being in his mid-thirties can still score with the best of them. Chris Paul versus Stephen Curry would be an interesting matchup for a series. They also would make Bogut a bigger factor with their big men.
Why no: The Clippers are one of those teams that seem to always collapse and shoot themselves in the foot when it counts most. It doesn’t matter who the owner, coach, GM, or players are. The Clippers always seem to have problems playing in big moments. There is also a problem with DeAndre Jordan‘s free throw shooting catching up with them in a big game, the Clippers lack of depth on the wings, and the Barnes versus Pierce matchup that would dramatically favor Barnes. There are a lot of mismatches that would favor the Warriors and the Clippers do not possess the defense ability to stop Golden State when it matters most.
Status: Pretender
Cleveland Cavaliers
Why yes: The most obvious reason is that the Cavaliers have the best player in the world in LeBron James, along with a stud point guard and a very good offensive player at power forward. However, those advantages would be moot when you consider Green matches up well with skilled big men, Thompson can handle Kyrie Irving, and Andre Iguodala and Barnes have proven the ability to at least slow James. The real x-factors for the Cavaliers would be the performance of the supporting cast, specifically J.R. Smith and Tristan Thompson.
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Why no: The Warriors match up extremely well as I mentioned above, and there are questions about how much LeBron can handle every night now with the wear and tear he has on his body. The Warriors are the much more rested team due to their amount of blowouts and being able to save their big threes legs. Another question is whether or not the role players can play better than they have in recent big games, or if Love can be the offensive force he has shown in recent weeks. If Love plays up to what is he is capable of, it would still be a tough series to win, and I would still favor Golden State, but they would have a much better chance.
Status: Contender
Toronto Raptors
Why yes: This year has been a breakout for the Raptors as a team. They have shown off their depth with Terrence Ross and Patrick Patterson off the bench showing he can contribute big minutes, the improvement of Jonas Valanciunas, and the scoring abilities of DeMar DeRozan who has proven to be one of the most lethal scorers in the NBA this season. Kyle Lowry gives this team a chance with his playmaking ability combined with his three-point shot and tough perimeter defense.
Why no: The Raptors have very little experience winning in the playoffs and the injury to DeMarre Carroll has impacted the wing defense that the Raptors can present. If Carroll is able to get healthy before this potential matchup he could be huge to help cover some of the perimeter players on the Warriors, but that is a huge if and there is no guarantee he will be the same player after his knee surgery. This series would see Ross play more minutes than Valanciunas to keep even with the Warriors small ball unit on the defensive end, but that would definitely not be a bad thing as Ross as proven more than capable, but also weakens the Raptors ability in the post combined with the average play of Luis Scola.
Status: Pretender
Boston Celtics
Why yes: The Celtics proved when they first played the Warriors they could hang with the champs, but that was without Thompson. The Celtics clearly have the depth and defense on the perimeter to slow down Golden State with Marcus Smart playing on Thompson, Bradley on Curry, Crowder on Barnes or Green, and Evan Turner to help on the other. Kelly Olynyk would also create problems with his playmaking and three-point shot. Jonas Jerebko would also have a big role in this potential series, which would be huge depending on if his shot was falling from deep.
Why no: The Celtics have no superstar to take over games in the playoffs and Isaiah Thomas has proven to only be able to get them so far. Last postseason Thomas was doubled on every screen and his size was exploited leaving Boston’s offense in the dust. The Warriors have the ability to shut down Thomas and therefore, shut down the Celtics ability run their motion offense. Brad Stevens is a great coach who can cover a lot of weaknesses, but he can only help so much.
Status: Pretender
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