2016 MLB Season Preview: Bold Fantasy Predictions for Every NL Team

Normally I give NBA daily fantasy advice and we here @TopShelfDFS have had an excellent season thus far in NBA but come spring time MLB is all we are thinking about. As much as I love NBA basketball, MLB season can’t come soon enough, MLB is by far our best DFS sport and baseball is less than a month away. So, to kick off the season we wanted to give you our bold fantasy predictions for every NL team to help you draft your season long teams and put a couple names in your head to remember when making your lineups on FanDuel & DraftKings. Let’s check out the National League.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Prediction: Newly acquired Shelby Miller finishes with 14 or more wins this season.
Reasoning: Last year Shelby Miller led the entire MLB in losses with 17 L’s, but yet had an impressive 3.01 ERA. The Braves had an abysmal offense last season, scoring an MLB-worst 3.54 runs a game. Miller pitched well for the Braves last year and didn’t deserve to lose 17 games. The Diamondbacks’ offense is set to explode this year as Goldschmidt and Pollock are entering their prime years and the D-Backs are coming off a season in which they averaged 4.44 runs/game(2nd most in the NL) If Miller can keep his ERA around 3.00, 14 wins isn’t out of the question.

Atlanta Braves

Prediction: Not a single Brave besides Freddie Freeman is drafted in standard 8-man leagues.
Reasoning: I’m trying to find some sort of silver lining for the Braves this year, but Atlanta scored the fewest runs of any team in the majors last year and their Opening day starter is Julio Teheran…Looking at their 40-man roster, there’s not much to get excited about. They did add a 32-year old Erik Aybar and did get the better end of the Shelby Miller trade, but on paper, their starting rotation looks to be the worst in baseball(Teheran, Bud Norris, Matt Wisler, Manny Banuelos, and Williams Perez). I say Freddie Freeman is the only viable fantasy player for them this season.

Chicago Cubs

Prediction: Kyle Schwarber hits 35 home runs and finishes with more overall fantasy points than Kris Bryant.
Reasoning: If you look at just the numbers, Schwarber had a much better season last year than Bryant, especially in the playoffs. Bryant also struck out a league-leading 199 times last year in just 559 at-bats. While Bryant has more upside as a pro, Schwarber is the better prospect right now and should have a better 2016 campaign. Most Cubs fans have already crowned themselves 2016 World Series Champs with their offseason acquisitions and young talent that will only look to get better, but the Mets pitching staff is still DeGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard, Matz, and Zach Wheeler…

 

 

Cincinnati Reds

Prediction: Billy Hamilton finally utilizes his incredible speed and steals 75 bases this year.
Reasoning: Hamilton was a September call-up a few seasons ago and played just two weeks, but in those two weeks he swiped 13 bags and was caught stealing just once. Hamilton is by far the best base runner in the MLB, but one thing he struggles with is hitting the ball on the ground. Most of Hamilton’s swings result in fly balls and long fly outs, if he can just figure out how to compact his swing and hit the ball on the ground he will definitely beat out infield singles, his average will rise and he will get even more opportunities to do what he does best. Last year he stole 58 bases in just 114 games and was only caught stealing 8 times, if he can stay healthy, 75 SBs aren’t out of the question.

Colorado Rockies

Prediction: Ben Paulsen finishes the season as a top-12 fantasy 1st basemen.
Reasoning: Paulsen was a daily fantasy hero last season, as he had two
multi-home run games last season(took him on DK both times) Paulsen took full advantage of the Coors effect last year as his numbers were noticeably better at home than on the road. The whole Rockies lineup is filled with awesome fantasy players, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Reyes, CarGo, Blackmon, they even picked up Geraldo Parra in the offseason. No surprise, the Rockies had the best offense in the NL last season and Paulsen should have a ton of RBI opportunities to hit all those guys in. 

 

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Prediction: Corey Seager wins NL Rookie of the Year unanimously and is the 2nd-best shortstop in fantasy.
Reasoning: Seager’s stat line in his one month in the majors was pretty incredible: 98 AB, .337 BA, .425  OBP,  8  2B,  4  HR,  17 RBIs, 2 SB(never got caught stealing), and 19 walks. In most cases, it takes prospects some time to get used to the big leagues, it took Kris Bryant almost a month to get his first big league bomb, but Seager was able to contribute to the Dodgers’ success right away. The only real competition Seager has for ROY is Steven Matz and Trea Turner, there are always a few unknown guys who come out of nowhere and put together a nice rookie campaign, but if Seager can stay healthy, he should win the award outright.

Miami Marlins

Prediction: Jose Fernandez wins the 2016 Cy Young and is the #1 pitcher in fantasy.
Reasoning: When Fernandez came into the league as a rookie, the Marlins were so eager to get him to the majors that they had him skip AAA altogether and go straight from double-A to the majors, which is unheard of for pitchers. Of course, Fernandez was the consensus rookie of the year and actually gave up the fewest hits allowed per 9 innings in the majors. Hernandez came back from injury last season and didn’t miss a beat, posting a 6-1 record, 2.92 ERA and even hit a HR in his first start back. The only thing holding him back this season is the Marlins’ offense that scored 3.78 runs/game(29th in the MLB) but even so, he was still able to go 6-1 last season and the Marlins do have Giancarlo back and a few promising prospects such as Ozuna and Adeiny Hechavarria. I say Fernandez has his best season yet and takes home the Cy Young award.

Milwaukee Brewers

Prediction: Chris Carter hits 35 home runs for Milwaukee this season.
Reasoning: There aren’t a lot of bright spots in the Brewers lineup this season(or pitching staff for that matter), but one nice addition they made in the offseason was picking up the power hitting Chris Carter. Just two years ago, Carter hit 37 bombs and 90 RBIs for the Astros and even stole 5 bases as a 6’4″ 260 lb. first baseman. Carter should be hitting cleanup for the Brew Crew in Miller Park, which is extremely friendly for right-handed batters, especially for power hitters like Carter.

New York Mets

Prediction: Steven Matz, currently being drafted 44th among starting pitchers, ends the season as a top 25 SP.
Reasoning: If I had to pick one starter out of the Mets monopoly of a pitching rotation to build a franchise around, I’m taking Matz without question. Luckily for the Mets, they don’t have to make that decision as their rotation consists of Matt Harvey, Syndergaard, DeGrom, and Matz whom they have locked up for the next 3 to 5 years. Last year in just 6 starts Matz ended with a 4-0 record, 2.27 ERA, and averaged a 9 K’s/9 innings. What makes Matz such an asset is his incredible hitting ability for a pitcher. In his first career start, Matz went 3 for 3 with 4 RBIs and ended the season with a .286 AVG. Matz has the most upside of Syndergaard, DeGrom, and Wheeler, it may be a long shot, but I say Matz cracks the top 25 starting pitchers in total fantasy points.

Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction: Maikel Franco hits 30 HR and 90 RBIs for the Phillies this year.
Reasoning: Early last year, Franco was on pace to hit 40 home runs for the Phillies at just 23 years old! Of course, he cooled off, but still had an excellent season and was a lone bright spot for the Phillies last year. In just 304 at-bats Franco hit .280 with 14 HR, 50 RBI, and 22 doubles. The most impressive stat for Franco was he was somehow able to drive in 50 runs(in 300 ABs) last year for a team who had the 4th-worst offense in all of baseball. Come spring time, Franco should be hitting 3rd in the lineup in a hitter-friendly Citizen’s Bank Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Prediction: Gerrit Cole has more fantasy points than Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, and Zack Greinke(all being drafted ahead of him in standard leagues)
Reasoning: I’m shocked more people aren’t talking about Cole this season after what he did last year at just 24-years-of-age. Cole went 19-8, with a 2.6o ERA, and 202 strikeouts last year. If you watch film on Cole, his pitches are some of the most deceiving in baseball, he makes some of the best hitters in baseball look extremely foolish at the plate with a rising fastball and one of the best sliders in the game. His average fastball last year clocked in at almost 97 MPH, which was 5th among all major league starters. Cole is definitely a dark horse candidate for NL Cy Young this year and his offense should get him to 20 wins this season.

San Diego Padres

Prediction: Wil Meyers bounces back and wins NL comeback player of the year.
Reasoning: Just a few short years ago, Meyers won Rookie of the Year as a member of the Rays, batting .293 with 53 RBIs in just 323 ABs, but since then he has struggled to stay healthy, which is a shame because he is San Diego’s biggest asset right now(age and contract adjusted) To help with injuries, the Padres have moved Meyers from the outfield to 1st base, which should definitely help him take on the 162 game season. Meyers should be hitting in the 3 or 4 spot for the Padres and he showed a lot of promise last year in his limited playing time. I’m stashing Meyers on my bench in season long leagues.

San Francisco Giants

Prediction: Johnny Cueto‘s decision to come back to the National League does wonders, finishes with 20 wins this season.
Reasoning: Don’t believe me? Cueto won 20 games in 2014 with the 3rd worst offense in all of baseball. Yes…Cueto really struggled in the American League, posting a 4.76 ERA, a 4-7 record, and only struck out 56 batters in 82 innings pitched. However, Cueto was under a lot of pressure last year being the biggest name dealt at the trade deadline. It should come as no surprise, there are a ton of great offenses in the A.L. and of course, they replace the worst batter in the lineup with a designated hitter. Cueto really used the pitcher spot to get out of innings in the NL and to get easy strikeouts to gain confidence when pitching for Cincy. There are a ton of teams that struggle at the plate in the National League, the Marlins, Braves, Phillies, Padres, and the now Todd Frazier-less Reds. I say Cueto bounces back this season against the terrible offenses of the National League and wins 20 games backed by a sneaky good San Francisco offense.

St. Louis Cardinals

Prediction: Randal Grichuk, currently being drafted 42nd among outfielders, finishes as a top-25 OF this season.
Reasoning: Ever wondered who was taken with the pick right before Mike Trout in the draft? Meet Randal Grichuk. While the Cards are probably kicking themselves for missing out on a once-in-a-generation talent like Trout, Grichuk held his own last year and was an awesome fantasy player the second half of the season. In just 323 ABs, Grichuk launched 17 home runs and had an impressive 47 RBIs. With Heyward gone, expect Grichuk to be hitting in the cleanup spot come April, where he’ll have a ton of run-producing opportunities. If he can stay healthy the entire year, a 30-90 season isn’t out of the question for Grichuk.

Washington Nationals

Prediction: Daniel Murphy falls outside the top 15 second basemen this season.
Reasoning: What Daniel Murphy did in the playoffs last year will never be forgotten and we will probably never see anything like it ever again. Murphy went on to hit 6 home runs in 6 straight games in the playoffs and what was even more incredible is Murphy only has 62 career home runs in 3,354 career at-bats. The Nationals added Murphy this offseason with the recency bias of his playoff explosion. In his career, Murphy has never hit more than 14 HR or 77 RBIs in a season. He also stole just 2 bases last year and was caught stealing twice. There are a ton of good fantasy players at  2nd base, Altuve, Dee Gordon, Dozier, Jason Kipnis, the list goes on and on, I say Murphy doesn’t crack the top 15 this season.

 

 

 

 

(Credit Tykes.co for images)

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