MLB Division Preview: NL Central

After detailing what may very well be the worst division in baseball, we go to one that featured three of the best teams in all of baseball last season. This division has two rebuilding teams, but it also possesses three teams that figure to be among the best once again. The Cubs won the offseason with their moves and have spent a lot of money to make sure this is their year while the Cardinals lost some key pieces (to the Cubs for that matter, and the Pirates neither lost nor gained very much. It is clear when looking at this division the Cubs are the favorite as they have very little weaknesses on their roster.

(Note: Teams in order of finish in 2015)

St. Louis Cardinals

Top Offseason Move: Signing SP Mike Leake

This offseason saw the Cardinals lose far more than they gained, but they also did sign a solid pitcher in Leake. Leake should help provide them with at least 180-200 innings per year, and attacks hitters with his sinker. This signing is a strong one considering how he lengthens their rotation and takes pressure off younger pitchers to handle a heavy workload, specifically a guy like Carlos Martinez who faltered down the stretch from innings and injury.

Key Departure: OF Jason Heyward, SP John Lackey

The Cardinals lost the most in the offseason of maybe any team in baseball. The Cardinals lost both Heyward and Lackey, but the worst part is they teamed up with the Cardinals division rival the Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals were in on Heyward until the end, and reportedly were the favorites to sign David Price until the Red Sox upped their offer. This team lost a lot this offseason and it isn’t clear if they even got back to last year’s level.

X-Factor: Health of C Yadier Molina

Last year Molina missed a lot of time due to injury and this year there is already question if Molina will be healthy enough to start on opening day. The Cardinals need Molina to be healthy and in the lineup for most of the season as he is a solid hitter, but more importantly, he guides the pitchers, calls a great game and is an excellent pitch framer. If the Cardinals are to compete in this division they will need Molina healthy for at least 130 games.

Pitching Staff Rank: 2nd

This staff could be considered number one especially considering Leake is their number four starter on their depth chart and last year’s young ace Carlos Martinez is fifth on their depth chart. If Adam Wainwright pitches like he did before his surgery and they still healthy this should be one of the better staffs in baseball, but in my opinion, the Cubs top three is better giving them the edge in this department.

Lineup Rank: 3rd

This lineup took a major hit when they lost Heyward, but the question on if Molina will be available and now the injury to Jhonny Peralta makes this lineup a little weak in my opinion. Brandon Moss is an all or nothing hitter, Kolten Wong is an okay player, and Jedd Gyorko is a marginal backup. Aside from Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday, this team lacks lineup depth.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Top Offseason Move: Signing 1B/OF John Jaso

The Pirates did very little this offseason and with a team that has a tight payroll that was to be expected. The signing of Jaso should give them versatility and a high on-base guy that should help the bottom of their lineup and give them a versatile option for their team. Other than that this team did very little this offseason aside from some reclamation projects they typically take chances on.

Key Departure: none

This team did not lose any major free agents or trade any big names. They should once again be competing for the division crown and a playoff spot with a solid young lineup including perennial MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen.

X-Factor: SP Jon Niese

Pittsburgh’s starting rotation is strong at the top with Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano but is relying heavily on bounce-back candidates like Ryan Vogelsong and Jon Niese. If Niese can give them innings and pitch to an ERA in the mid-threes that would really lengthen their rotation. They don’t have many depth options if he doesn’t pan out making it extremely important he pitches well.

Pitching Staff Rank: 3rd

This staff is third because of their top two starters being top notch. They also have some intriguing bounce-back candidates that I think will end up working out. I think Niese is a good bet to at least give them innings, but Vogelsong I am not so sure. Either way, their top two are too good to ignore.

Lineup Rank: 2nd

This lineup is one of the best with McCutchen anchoring it along with Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco providing solid production. They also have the return of Jung Ho Kang, last year’s breakthrough player Francisco Cervelli, and Josh Harrison adding depth. This team should score plenty of runs, but could use an addition at first base to really improve.

Chicago Cubs

Top Offseason Move: Signing SP John Lackey, OF Jason Heyward

No team improved as much as the Cubs in the offseason. The Cubs signed Heyward and Lackey and more importantly, they signed them away from a division rival and the reigning division champs. Lackey is the perfect fit behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester and should give them as formidable one through three as there is in baseball. Heyward should provide help with elite defense in right field, along with very good on-base skills.

Key Departure: 2B Starlin Castro

Castro is hardly a loss on this team considering the alternative was the signing of Ben Zobrist. Castro had been average at best on defense at second base and had struggled hitting for a while now and moving him and his contract is not a big deal, but that is the only thing that is remotely close to a loss on this team.

X-Factor: SP Kyle Hendricks

This team has very few weaknesses and honestly I do not see any on paper. Hendricks is an x-factor because if he pitches as well as he did last year this team could be special with the team featuring a strong lineup, very good rotation and the talent in the minors to get whoever they deem worth it on the trade market.

Pitching Staff Rank: 1st

The Cubs staff has Jason Hammel in the fifth spot of the rotation and he had an ERA of 3.74 last year making him one of the best fifth starters in the league. The top three in this rotation are all durable guys who can strikeout people when necessary, but also can pitch efficiently and not tax the bullpen.

Lineup Rank: 1st

The Cubs have one of the best lineups in baseball along with one of the best three-four combos in baseball with the righty Kris Bryant and lefty Anthony Rizzo both likely to compete for MVP’s for the next decade. This lineup has no weak spots and is strong in almost every category of offensive production with guys who can steal bases, hit for power, hit for average, and work the count.

Milwaukee Brewers

Top Offseason Move: Signing 1B Chris Carter

This team is in the same breathe as the Reds in that they finally stopped delaying the inevitable and chose to rebuild. The Brewers have had a tough time for a while and have combined poor free-agent signings with a bad farm system that has brought them nowhere. I like taking a chance on Chris Carter to bring some power at a relatively low price so that this offense isn’t historically terrible. Thank goodness for Ryan Braun.

Key Departure: 1B/OF Adam Lind

I hate to make Lind seem like he is a big deal, but he was a solid producer for this team since they acquired him. Lind is not going to win any MVP’s and may not get into any all-star games in the future, but he is a solid on-base guy who has some pop and some positional versatility. A tough move to trade him, but it makes sense to start the rebuild by trading your best assets.

X-Factor: C Jonathan Lucroy

Unlike Adam Lind, Lucroy’s value is at an all-time low with his poor performance affecting opposing team’s assessment of him and what they would give up to get him. If Lucroy can get back to the guy who had one of the best contracts in baseball instead of one that is paid in line with his performance, then they can choose to either trade him and help rebuild their system or use him to help develop their pitching.

Pitching Staff Rank: 4th

I am a big fan of their pitching staff or more specifically young hurler Taylor Jungmann. Jungmann is one of the more promising younger starters in the league pitching to an ERA of 3.77 last year in just under 120 innings. Those numbers reflect some trouble later in the season rather than his true performance. I am also bullish on Jimmy Nelson, but either way, it is not their year this year.

Lineup Rank: 5th

This may be the worst lineup outside of Philadelphia and Atlanta in the majors. Braun is a nice piece and Lucroy should bounce back nicely, even if he is just an on-base guy, but this team needs a lot of help and although I praised the addition of Carter as a guy who can provide some pop, he has too many holes to rely on him as a middle of the lineup type guy.

Cincinnati Reds

Top Offseason Move: Choosing to rebuild

There is no move that really stood out for Cincinnati, but I think what stood out is that they didn’t spend money or go after any big names because they are in a rebuild. The sooner they commit to it the sooner they can bounce back and contend for a playoff spot. They made the right call by clearly relaying that throughout baseball considering they had been hesitant to do so recently. They didn’t do that well in the Todd Frazier trade and the Aroldis Chapman news really sunk the chances of them getting anything of value back.

Key Departure: CL Aroldis Chapman, 3B Todd Frazier

Losing these two guys really hurts their team in the present, but it allows them to get started on their rebuild instead of winning 70 games or so and losing out on some of the top talents in the draft. Chapman was as good as gone anyway and you cannot justify that kind of salary for a closer on a mid-market team.

X-Factor: SP Homer Bailey

Bailey is one of those guys who has not panned out since they worked to an extension and now the Tommy John Surgery has really dimmed the chances the Reds get anything close to what they invested in him. Bailey was a good pitcher for a while, and they need him to bounce back. If he can bounce back he can lead this staff and potentially become a guy to help replenish the farm system, otherwise, he will be a problem on their payroll for a while.

Pitching Staff Rank: 5th

This staff is extremely weak and is going to be used to break in some younger guys. I do not see any of these guys getting more than 10-12 wins and that seems like the optimistic view. This will be a learning year for the team and the younger guys will go through a lot of growing pains. A couple dark horses I like are Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb, both of whom could surprise and become solid big league starters in the next couple years.

Lineup Rank: 4th

The only saving grace for this team is that they still have Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips in their lineup, but Billy Hamilton has not produced offensively like they thought he would and Jay Bruce has slumped the past few years. This team has very little firepower when Votto and Phillips go through slumps and they only beat the horrendous Brewers lineup.

Projected Division Finish:

1. Chicago Cubs

2. Pittsburgh Pirates

3. St. Louis Cardinals

4. Milwaukee Brewers

5. Cincinnati Reds

 

 

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