Top Double Digit Seeds by Upset Potential

Going into every year everyone’s toughest assignment when filling out a bracket is figuring out which lower seeded team will make a run in the tournament. Being able to spot a lower seeded team’s upset potential could be the difference in you slipping up and picking an incorrect final four team (in 2013 I picked New Mexico to make the final four, only to see them lose to Harvard as a 3 seed) or you being right and having a leg up on the competition in your bracket pool (I picked Mercer over Duke). Nonetheless, this year has a smaller amount of upset worthy picks, but here are some picks I think are worth keeping a close eye on when you fill out your bracket.

Worth a deep look:

(12) South Dakota State vs (5) Maryland

Why: When looking at Maryland it is important to note this team has incredible talent. Coming into the year I had them pegged as a team that could be a number one seed and was one of my favorites to make the final four coming into the year. Suddenly though they do not look like the same team that was in the top five at the beginning of the season and even spent some time as a number one ranked team. I think there are some underlying chemistry problems for the Terrapins and South Dakota State is a good team. Freshman forward Mike Daum can hit from anywhere and their defense was the tops in the Summit. They also crash the boards and get extra possessions, something Maryland doesn’t do. (last in Big Ten in offensive rebounds).

My Pick: South Dakota State

(12) Yale vs (5) Baylor

Why: As usual, Baylor is on upset alert as they have struggled in the past in the tournament (last year vs Georgia State). However, this Baylor team is very good and can really crash the glass on offense and control the boards on defense with phenomenal athletes. However, Yale’s strength is also crashing the glass making this strength against strength. This is a great battle of one-two punches as Taurean Prince and Lester Medford (fantastic taking care of the ball: 2.77 assist to turnover ratio) power the Bears offense while Yale is led by forward Justin Sears and point guard Makai Mason, who can hit from deep. This will be a close game.

My Pick: Yale 

(12) Arkansas Little-Rock vs (5) Purdue

Why: Purdue is a tough matchup with two seven footers in Isaac Haas and A.J. Hammons, but they also struggle with consistency. Hammons is the guy they run offense through and he is a very good player. The Boilermakers love to get to the free throw line, but they are just okay on defense. On the flip side the Trojans run a very slow half-court offense, play extremely stingy defense, and like all underdogs that have success, create turnovers and shoot it well from beyond the arc. One name to know for Little Rock is Marcus Johnson Jr. who is shooting 46 percent from three-point land.

My Pick: Arkansas Little-Rock

(11) Gonzaga vs (6) Seton Hall

Why: This will be a matchup of opposing strengths as Gonzaga has very good post play led by Domantas Sabonis while Seton Hall has great guard play led by Isaiah Whitehead. Seton Hall has been hot of late coming off their Big East Tournament win and downing Villanova in the championship game. They also have been great on defense all year. One player that could win the game by himself is Kyle Wiltjer, who can score from anywhere on the floor and is a mismatch with his size and skill. If Wiltjer goes for more than 25, I think Gonzaga wins.

My Pick: Seton Hall

 

Keep an Eye on:

(11) Northern Iowa vs (6) Texas

Why: This game will feature some great guard play on the Longhorns side with Javan Felix and Isaiah Taylor who can score and do a good job handling pressure and taking care of the ball. They will also get a big boost if Cameron Ridley can go back to his old form and rebound at his past rate. For Nothern Iowa, Wes Washpun is a do it all player for the Panthers and will be a tough matchup for the Longhorns. If Ridley plays like he did earlier in the year it could be tough for Northern Iowa to win.

My Pick: Toss Up; Northern Iowa

(13) Iona vs (4) Iowa State

Why: This is one of the games that most have identified as an upset due to the play of Iona’s A.J. English who is a future NBA player and averages 22 points per game. Iona likes to push the pace and jack three-pointers all day. For Iowa State, their offense runs through Georges Niang and Monte Morris who are a dynamic punch especially considering how well Morris does limiting turnovers (4.09 tunover to assist ratio). I see Iona giving Iowa State a game, bu struggling to finish the deal at the end due to their lack of a physical presence inside, which helps Iowa State, whose weakness is imposing rebounders in the frontcourt.

My Pick: Iowa State

(14) Stephen F. Austin vs (3) West Virginia

Why: Stephen F. Austin is really a remarkable program who have lost just 13 games in the past three seasons. Their coach Brad Underwood actually used to work as an assistant under Bob Huggins. Their best player is Thomas Walkup who can play with anyone and he will need to score if they have a chance against West Virginia. West Virginia can win if they pound the glass, but Stephen F. Austin is not going to turn the ball over and they are all excellent passers who shoot it well from deep. If Stephen F. Austin can stay close to even on the boards, I think they win this game, but if they get crushed on the boards, they are in trouble.

My Pick: Toss Up; Stephen F. Austin

 

Most Likely Not, but Take a Chance

(13) Stony Brook vs (4) Kentucky

Why: Kentucky comes into the tournament playing as well as almost anyone and beat a very good Texas A&M team in the SEC Conference final on Sunday. Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray are the names to know for the Wildcats as they control the offense for Kentucky, but Alex Poythress could have a big time assignment covering the Sea Wolves best player in Jameel Warney who put up 43 points in the America East final. Stony Brook is also a pretty good rebounding team which negates Kentucky’s edge on the glass and the Sea Wolves point guard Carson Puriefoy can really shoot it and will make Ulis defend for 40 minutes. I am going on the ledge here and taking the upset.

My Pick: Stony Brook

 

Ignore:

(14) Fresno State vs (3) Utah

Why: Fresno State had an outstanding season and wrestled away the conference tourney title from San Diego State despite the Aztecs running away with the regular season crown. Point guard Marvelle Harris can score, averaging just under 21 points per game and he handles pressure well, with the Fresno State averaging just 10 turnovers per game. However, Utah has a huge advantage down low with future NBA lottery pick Jakob Poeltl and are a very good shooting team, shooting 49 percent overall from the floor. I do not see how the Bulldogs stop Poeltl who if they double him, can hit the open shooter.

My Pick: Utah

(13) Hawaii vs (4) California

Why: Hawaii is a very good team and they gave Oklahoma all they wanted earlier in the season, but this team struggles with turnovers and is not great from the free throw line, two things an underdog must be able to do well if they want to pull an upset, especially against one of the most talented lineups in the country. Cal has three future NBA players in their point guard Tyrone Wallace, and forwards Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb. Brown is the name to know as he can flat out play. Cal also has problems with turnovers, but they rebound extremely well on the defensive glass and are among the best defenses in the country. Hawaii may make it close, but I expect Cal to impose their will on them eventually.

My Pick: California

 

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